Aviation continues to grow, but…

At the recent International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting held in New Delhi, this year's figures were analyzed in relation to those projected for the end of 2024. Although we are talking about a more moderate growth than expected: 8% vs. 5.8%, there is also good news regarding the load factor (84%) and the projected growth for the Asia-Pacific region, which reaches 9%, after a few months of disappointing performance since the pandemic began.

The truth is, as experts have shown for years, the center of gravity of aviation has been shifting to that region from North America, which shows that, although it remains dynamic, its growth and strength today are less optimistic than they were a decade ago. As always, aviation's performance reflects global economic trends, and this gives us a glimpse into what the future holds.

The Asia-Pacific region will contribute 52% to global aviation growth this year, reflecting the growing importance of this region across the board, not just manufacturing trade, where China's exports have grown from just over $1 trillion to nearly $2 trillion over the past 20 years, while the United States' deficit has widened from just under $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion over the same period.

Asia-Pacific's total share of global traffic has been growing consistently for 25 years, currently standing at around 33%, contributing nearly 2 billion passengers to global traffic. It has average annual growth of 6%, and over the last decade, more than 80 airports have been built in the region, and its airlines maintain a commercial fleet of around 9,000 aircraft.

Meanwhile, North America has a 28% share of global traffic, handles 1.3 billion passengers, has averaged 2.5% annual growth, has seen fewer than 20 airports built in the region in the previous decade, and has a commercial fleet of approximately 7,500 aircraft.

According to commercial aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, Asia-Pacific will be the world's largest air travel market by 2040, accounting for 40% of global traffic, especially at airports in New Delhi, Manila, Jakarta, Shanghai, and Bangkok. Furthermore, there is a strong balance between domestic and international markets in the region, with low-cost carriers continuing to grow and continually opening secondary routes that create greater connectivity.

The bad news is that Latin America is far from having the dynamism it displayed in the last decade. Annual growth is estimated at 5.8%, and the challenges it faces have much to do with regulations that hinder growth in terms of taxes, outdated standards, obstacles to free movement, currency fluctuations, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. Despite the enormous growth potential in this region, things don't seem to be stabilizing in the short term. A threat to everyone, obviously, is Trump's tariff war, which threatens to slow growth this year and next. We shall see.