What the polls say in Portugal one week before its third election in three years: who's growing... and who's deflating
Portugal is holding its third legislative elections in just three years. The reason? The fall of the center-right government of Luís Montenegro, which lost a vote of no confidence, rejected by nearly two-thirds of Parliament. In March , President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the dissolution of the Assembly and the calling of elections for May 18 , a decision unanimously supported by the Council of State and the political parties.
The crisis that has led to this new election stems from a scandal involving a company linked to Montenegro, which is being investigated for potential conflicts of interest . However, despite the suspicions and the ongoing investigation, the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is running again as a candidate with the support of his party.
Portugal is experiencing one of its most unstable periods of political instability since the Carnation Revolution , with a fragmented parliament, a disenchanted citizenry, and major social challenges such as the housing crisis and the deterioration of public services.
Who's ahead? What the polls sayTowards the end of April, the El Electoral newspaper published a poll whose results maintained the center-right Democratic Alliance as the leading political force. This coalition is a result of Montenegro's Socialist Party (PSD) and the right-wing CDS-PP (CDS-PP). However, the gap with the second-placed Socialist Party (PS ), led by Pedro Nuno, is not wide, just 2 points. However, this isn't the most inconclusive aspect; there are substantial discrepancies between the different polls, some predicting the PS as the winner and others predicting the AD.
Whatever happens, Portugal will remain difficult to govern: both parties are far from achieving a majority, but also from reaching an agreement with their respective extremes or among themselves. The average electoral polls, provided by El Electoral, give the Democratic Alliance 30.5% of the voting intention, ranging between 27% and 34%, and are predicted to be one point higher than the result of the March 2024 elections (29.49%).
For its part, the Socialist Party remains at 28.5%, very close to the situation in March (28.66%), although it could vary between 26% and 31%.
Portugal is not exempt from the rise and popularity of the far right in Europe. In fact, it also has its own party, comparable to the AfD in Germany and the National Rally in France. It's Chega!, or "Enough!" in Spanish , led by André Ventura and founded in 2018. Today it stands as the third political force with an increase of up to 17.5% (between 13% and 21%).
The increase in their legislative power is evident and, for many, imminent. In 2022, Chega! won 7.2% of the vote and seated 12 deputies in the Assembly of the Republic. In the March elections of last year, their support increased to 18%, adding another 38 seats to their tally. Even so, no party has been willing to make a pact with them so far. Even the center-right Democratic Alliance, currently in power, remains reluctant.
Political instability in PortugalIn Portugal, since 2019, no government has managed to remain in power for the entire term of office , that is, the five years it is legally required to last. Sousa, the head of state, has a difficult-to-match record: three dissolutions in one presidential term.
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