The red tape of families with banks broke a 15-year record and the situation also affects the industry.

The real economy's numbers are increasingly stark. In addition to the constant loss of purchasing power, consumption that is moving unevenly and across sectors, and an unemployment rate that has been trending downward in recent months , another variable has now become known that is also causing concern.

Loan delinquency rates have now grown steadily for six months this year, a significant indicator of financial complexity and a situation that is repeated in both the "family" and "private" sectors. In both cases, moreover, last June—the latest month surveyed by the Central Bank (BCRA)—marked the highest figure for the first half of 2025.

While the situation is difficult in both cases, the reality shows that for families, the outlook has become even bleaker. BCRA figures indicate that the default rate was 2.7% last January, and has continued to rise since then, reaching 5.2% in June . In the meantime, unpaid balances jumped to 2.9% in February, 3.3% in March, 3.7% in April, and 4.5% in May.

According to figures from economist Christian Buteler, the figure reached in June is the highest since January 2010.

Within the "family" segment, the loan type with the highest level of difficulty repaying was Personal Loans, which reached a ceiling and exceeded the average. Here, the default rate was 6.5% last June, up from 3.5% in January and 5.6% in May.

This is also notable in the case of credit card debt. According to the Central Bank, irregularities in 2% of debts were recorded at the beginning of 2025, but in six months, the figure increased and reached 4.9% last June.

For private banks, meanwhile, delinquency rates were also on the rise. Last June, they reached 2.9%, considerably lower than that of households, although it should be noted that at the start of the year, they were 1.6%. As was the case with households, the most notable growth and ratios were seen in Personal Loans and Credit Cards . The former reached a delinquency rate of 6.4% (up from 3.4% in January), while the latter reached 4.4%, compared to 1.8% at the start of the year.

All of these figures are even present before the ongoing rate hikes, so the market does not rule out the possibility that payment irregularities could continue to rise. Given this, banks do not currently describe the situation as "worrying," although everything points to at least a reduction in financing offers and some restrictions on some applications , a process that the rate hike itself will in fact take care of.

For households, what is expected is that not only will the level of defaults remain high, but overall consumption levels will also be further affected . The effects, of course, will also be felt in the private sector.

Some analysts believe that the rise in corporate defaults could have a negative impact on the level of activity . This situation could be due, among other things, to a slower growth trend in some segments, especially through financial leverage. In fact, a report by the consulting firm GMA Capital warns that, just days before the end of August, there has already been a 2.3% drop in the level of access to credit for companies this month .

The tight situation experienced by many families, reflected in the irregularity of loan payments, is also reflected in the future. According to Torcuato Di Tella University, consumer confidence plummeted 13.87% month-on-month in August , the steepest decline since December 2023.

This variable occurs even though the government can demonstrate good management in controlling inflation , which managed to keep inflation below 2% per month between May and July, a goal the ruling party itself had set for itself. With this, prices accumulated a 17.5% increase in the first half of 2025.

The main problem here is that wages are finding it increasingly difficult to regain purchasing power. The government has never been very open to pushing for income growth, to the point that registered private wages have fallen by 0.6% in real terms since Javier Milei took office , with wage parity guidelines typically ranging between 1% and 1.5%, depending on the sector analyzed, and against a cumulative inflation rate of 17.3% in 2025.

The public finances situation is even worse. Since December 2023, they have recorded a loss that—depending on the measurements taken—ranges between 15% and 30% , and there is no indication that this situation will change.

Along with this, economic activity could also be affected, and some analysts believe it could have fallen by around 0.3% in July compared to the previous month , following the 0.7% drop in June and the 0.1% drop in May.