The alleged bribery case fell like a bucket of cold water on La Libertad Avanza and complicated the Buenos Aires campaign.

Just three days ago, Diego Spagnuolo dared to criticize Javier Milei's opposition figures for supporting the "third way" on his social media account "X." In his analysis of the electoral landscape, the former head of the Disability Agency (Andis), who is at the center of the alleged corruption scandal that has plunged the government into crisis, boasted that the candidates of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) represented "renewal." He even ventured that the ruling party would "wild" the province of Buenos Aires and the capital in the upcoming elections.

Spagnuolo, a lawyer who gained the President's trust in 2021, when the anarcho-capitalist economist took his first steps in major politics, seemed brimming with optimism. This was before the audio recordings of him discussing alleged bribe requests in his office emerged . Today, he had to hand over his phones to the courts at his home in the Altos de Campo Grande neighborhood of Pilar, after an investigation was opened into alleged bribery at the Disability Agency. The case shakes the Casa Rosada just two weeks before the Buenos Aires legislative elections, the first major test of support for Milei's project in Buenos Aires, the country's main district and the great bastion of Kirchnerism.

Among the leadership of La Libertad Avanza, they admit their concern about the potential impact the Spagnuolo affair, which implicates Karina Milei and the Menems, the ruling party's political engineers across the country, could have on the polls. While in the offices of Balcarce 50, there is fear over the new revelations in the legal case—federal prosecutor Franco Picardi is trying to find evidence that could serve as proof—the electoral strategists of LLA in Buenos Aires are searching for a way out of the crisis caused by the explosive cocktail of the Spagnuolo audio recordings. At the top of the party, they acknowledge that the issue has been a cold shower for the campaign.

The first step taken by Sebastián Pareja , the Libertarian campaign manager, was to lower his profile and wait for instructions from the Casa Rosada. For now, the government has opted for silence and has shown no reaction to the series of raids ordered by the courts after clandestine recordings came to light in which a voice attributed to Spagnuolo described the payment of bribes in his department related to the provision of disability medications.

Until now, Milei's strategists have been aiming to replicate in Buenos Aires the recipe that worked for them in the battle for the city: nationalizing the debate and clinging to the figure of the President to install their candidates. Their big bet was to deploy the provocative slogan "Kirchnerism never again."

Without a public stance from the government—which has so far limited itself to removing Spagnuolo from his post and appointing physician Alejandro Vilches as the Disability Agency's intervenor—the Milei lieutenants in the province are gauging the impact of the scandal on the region. On the one hand, there are those who believe the case will be used by Kirchnerism to undermine the national government in the final stretch of the electoral campaign for the September 7 local elections, but that the effect will be innocuous on the performance of LLA in the most populated areas of Buenos Aires. "It's an elite discussion, like the defense of vetoes or fentanyl. On the street, they talk to you about the economy," boasts one of the challengers to the Peronism that Milei established in the province. Other libertarians, on the other hand, are more pessimistic. They assume they'll feel the blow and that the discussion will be uphill on terrain hostile to Milei as long as the issue dominates the media agenda, which would help permeate public opinion. "This is going to affect us, and in a campaign that was already going badly," say those close to one of the most powerful residents of the Casa Rosada. The knockout continues in the libertarian galaxy, and no one knows what the formula will be to get off the canvas.

Meanwhile, Pro Party members deduce that the case of alleged corruption in Milei's administration could influence social sentiment and stimulate electoral abstention. In other words, they suspect that the revelations in the Spagnuolo case could discourage participation in a Buenos Aires province election that was less than appealing to the population. Strictly speaking, the campaign had already been overshadowed by the progress of the judicial investigation into the contaminated fentanyl that caused more than 100 deaths.

"A topic of conversation has been raised that is very negative for us," says one of the LLA candidates in Buenos Aires, who doesn't hide his discomfort at the Casa Rosada's dismay over a case that shakes the Milei brothers.

It's well known that Spagnuolo was a key figure in the President's entourage. They met through social media before Milei debuted as a candidate in the capital in 2021. In fact, he became his lawyer and helped him draft the first complaints against journalists and political rivals. They had met at Ramiro Marra's offices in Bull Market, LLA's first political bunker. Before strengthening ties with Milei and becoming his candidate, Spagnuolo had been a member of the teams of José Luis Espert , who will lead the LLA's national deputy ticket in October.

From the outset, the lawyer presented himself as a fervent supporter of the nascent Milei movement and displayed his thirst for power. Spagnuolo was a member of the militant group "Pumas Libertarios," chaired by Córdoba native María Celeste Ponce , one of Milei's squires in Congress. Oscar Zago , then an ally of the President and a leader of the MID (Mexican Democratic Left), attempted to guide him into the political world at Milei's express request. The lawyer seemed eager to secure a spot on the LLA list. According to former party members, he said he no longer wanted to "work for free." His relationship with Zago was fraught with disagreements and did not end well. But Spagnuolo remained in contact with Milei. He snuck onto his payroll in 2021 and managed to become head of the Disability Agency when the economist became President.

So far, pollsters are uncertain about the implications the audiotape case could have on the September 7 election and, above all, on the race toward the October legislative elections. They believe it will depend on the government's reaction and the escalation of the alleged corruption case. "It's difficult to predict the effect. It will depend on the visibility and importance that the judicial progress of the case has for the public up to September 7. Assuming it has importance and visibility in the media, it could affect the national government," emphasizes Federico Aurelio of Aresco. According to Aurelio, the impact will depend on the level of awareness among the electorate about the Spagnuolo scandal at the time of the vote. "The fight against corruption is one of the issues highlighted by Milei's supporters as a factor supporting the government," he adds.

Since the closing of the lists, the Libertarians have admitted that the challenge in the province is daunting for several reasons. Fuerza Patria controls the territorial apparatus, key to overseeing and mobilizing voters across the vast Buenos Aires province. The Partido Popular (PJ) governs 83 of Buenos Aires' 135 municipalities, representing 74% of the electoral roll. To strengthen her power structure, Milei closed a deal with Pro (Pro), which will provide thirteen mayors—representing 9.4% of the electoral roll. However, Pareja and Eduardo "Lule" Menem suffered the departure of four "yellow" candidates: Pablo Petrecca (Junín), María José Gentile (9 de Julio), Diego Reyes (Puan), and Javier Martínez (Pergamino). Meanwhile, the Passaglias, leaders of San Nicolás, will enter the second electoral section with their own offer: Hechos (Acts).

With this outlook, LLA organizers estimate they can compete in the first section, the most populated in Buenos Aires, and secure victories in the fifth, sixth, and seventh. They estimate the battle with Peronism will be evenly matched in the eighth (La Plata), the second, and the fourth. They assume Kirchnerism will secure a victory in the third section, the PJ's great stronghold.

While high-ranking government officials remain in the background— Guillermo Francos was ambiguous when he sought to protect the Mileis and the Menems, but at the same time said he wouldn't put his hand in the fire for any official—the candidates for Buenos Aires legislators are trying to gain a foothold in the electoral ring. For now, they are under siege from Peronism. This morning, Diego Valenzuela, the first LLA candidate for national senator in the first section, reported that a "gang" attacked two party trucks with stones during his visit to José C. Paz, the home of Mario Ishii, one of the barons of the conurbation.

"There's a lot of hostility," says LLA. Candidates also face fear among business owners based in municipalities run by Peronists about appearing in photos of their campaign tours. Political mischief is also common, secretly carried out by mayors opposing Milei when the Libertarians visit their territories. For example, LLA organizers had to change the location of their event in Pergamino after their reservation at a Rural Society property was canceled at the last minute. They also received threats in Moreno and Lomas de Zamora, where they are preparing a caravan.

So far, Milei's planned event in Junín next Monday to support her candidates in the province's eight districts is still on. "This election will be won by the one who best speaks volumes," Pareja's group summarizes.

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