Political implications of the prison sentence

On Tuesday, June 10, the Supreme Court of Justice upheld the six-year prison sentence against former Argentine President and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) in the Highways case. She was found guilty of mismanagement of public funds and illicit enrichment. On Wednesday, June 18, CFK appeared before the court to be formally notified of her sentence and placed under house arrest, due to her age and status as a former head of state.

This event, although anticipated, caused a strong political upheaval and mobilized supporters, as CFK leads the main opposition to Javier Milei's government. The debate quickly became polarized: those who see the ruling as a political ban and those who celebrate it as reparation for years of Kirchnerist corruption. Between the two extremes, there is almost no room for calm analysis.

This situation has five key consequences for Argentine politics. First, the perpetual ban from holding public office effectively sidelines a central figure in the political arena. With CFK out of the picture, Milei remains the only active leader of any standing, unbalancing the political competition and consolidating the ruling party.

Second, the Justicialist Party remains disorganized. Cristina was the only figure capable of uniting the dispersed Peronist electorate ahead of the October 2025 legislative elections. Although other leaders were emerging, such as the governor of Buenos Aires, her presence on the ballot was seen as irreplaceable to achieve unity and electoral traction.

Third, for the La Libertad Avanza (LLA) government, these elections are key to confirming its hegemony. Its libertarian, economically and culturally disruptive project now faces a different electoral landscape. The ruling party was banking on a race against CFK, a figure guaranteed to generate strong polarization. The ruling party has altered that scenario. It will have to redefine its strategy.

Fourth, CFK's departure creates a vacuum that could reshape the opposition. Kirchnerism, the backbone of opposition Peronism, is beginning to show signs of wear and tear. Argentine politics, until now organized around this force, will have to rearm itself. If Kirchnerism dissolves, new fronts of confrontation with Milei are likely to emerge ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.

Fifth, this reconfiguration could give rise to broader opposition to the LLA's aggressive political program. Libertarian politics doesn't seek consensus, but rather enemies. Under this logic of permanent polarization, the reorganization of the "enemy" becomes key. New alliances, both within and outside Peronism, will have to challenge the country's direction.

A recent survey by Zuban Córdoba shows that 55% of citizens consider the sentence just, while 45% consider it biased or proscriptive. The most revealing statistic: of this 55%, 70.9% are young people under the age of 30. This suggests a generational renewal in the political and ethical judgment of historical figures. The new generations, beyond ideological affiliations, seem to be demanding something different. A new contract between politics and society is beginning to emerge in their preferences.

*Master's degree in Political Science. Latin America 21.