Economic activity in Mexico remains in contraction: IMEF

Economic activity remains in contraction according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF ) indicators for April, since both recorded levels that indicate a lack of economic expansion compared to March.

This result adds to the signal shown by the indicators in recent months, which warned of a weak pace of economic growth. In this sense, the preliminary figures published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) show that industrial production contracted (-) 0.3% in 1Q25 (-1.4% year-on-year).

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The services sector experienced zero growth in the first quarter of the year (0.0%), resulting in annual growth of 1.3%, consistent with a (-)0.5% drop in March. Thus, preliminary figures published by INEGI estimate quarterly GDP growth of 0.2% in 1Q25.

The IMEF Manufacturing Indicator decreased (-) 1.4 points compared to April, and was in the contraction zone for the thirteenth consecutive month (45.5<50) .

The trend-cycle and company-size-adjusted series remained below the expansion zone, at 46.2 and 45.9, respectively. Overall, the signal is compelling; the figures reveal that the contraction in the manufacturing sector is continuing and continuing into these first months of the year.

The IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator increased marginally by 0.5 points, reaching 49.0 units.

The trend-cycle series fell (-) 0.1 points, closing at 49.0, while the company-size-adjusted series rose 1.2 points, to 48.3. All three measures fluctuate below the 50.0 threshold, so the reading indicates a lack of expansion in the services and trade sectors.

Thus, we can note that services and trade indicators continue to send a signal of contraction at the start of this second quarter of the year, thus prolonging the poor performance seen in 1Q25. The expansion of these sectors observed over the past four years has ended.