Trump Effect in Reverse, Dollar Never This Bad Since 1973. Duties, Wars and Instability

The first half of the Trump administration has been eventful , many of them tragic due to the various wars, but not only that. The tycoon has intervened personally on many international issues ( see duties ) and this has caused several shocks at the global economic level . For the dollar , the semester just ended was the worst since 1973 , the greenback - reports Il Sole 24 Ore - has suffered a 10% drop on a global scale due to the uncertainties that have arisen on the performance of the US economy and especially on the stability of its public accounts after the inauguration of Donald Trump. The oil balance is also negative (-10% compared to the beginning of 2025) due to fears of a general slowdown in the global economy and the policies pursued by OPEC +.

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But for Europe, this collapse of the dollar is not exactly good news . Several analysts - continues Il Sole - maintain that the EU will have a minimal annual increase in profits in 2025, barely reaching 1%, compared to 8.4% in the US ) but there is no shortage of confident people. "Our models indicate an improving economy in the coming quarters and already suggest an increase in the estimates of prospective 12-month profits of around 10% by the beginning of 2026 " suggests UniCredit, which on the other hand also underlines how it is likely that a less accommodating Federal Reserve than expected "will end up weighing on US stocks, whose valuations are already excessive". There seems to be more conviction, however, about the other two fundamental movements of 2025. " The structural trend towards the weakening of the dollar remains intact" according to Goldman Sachs , which underlines "the growing difficulty of attracting capital from abroad to cover the large current account deficit of the United States".

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