Today's Stock Markets July 2. Moody's Cuts Outlook on Global Sovereign Ratings for Duties
ROME – In exactly one week , the 90-day truce that Donald Trump granted after the announcements of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, three months ago, will expire . Since then, unlike the promises, few announcements have been signed by the White House. Washington would like a phased agreement with the EU, leaving tariffs at 10% for now, and Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic flew to the States to negotiate. Trump reiterated that the signature with India is close, while the agreement with Japan is moving further away. Without agreements – and without extensions – the “reciprocal” tariffs will come into force on July 9. The markets are now also reacting to the first “yes” from Congress to the Big Beautiful Bill , with the narrow approval in the Senate of Trump’s budget law that will inflate public debt. While analysts are predicting a rate cut by the Fed in September, the dollar has recorded its worst first half of the year in 50 years.
ECB, the "hawk" Wunsch opens to expansionary policy
Eurozone inflation at risk to fall below the 2% target, creating the conditions for rates to become moderately expansionary from the current neutral level of 2%. This was stated by the governor of the Belgian central bank and member of the ECB council Pierre Wunsch, considered by many to be more of a 'hawk' than a 'dove', in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the Sintra central banks forum. "If the recovery is delayed, and it has been several times, and economic activity is below potential, it is rational to support" growth, Wunsch said. Wunsch added that the strong euro at $1.18 is another argument in favor because it weakens growth and inflationary pressures.
Moody's cuts global sovereign ratings outlook on tariffs
Moody's cuts outlook on global sovereign ratings due to tariffs ++ Reduced global GDP estimates in 2025, in Europe from 1.3% to 1% (ANSA) - MILAN, 02 JULY - Moody's has revised its outlook on global sovereign ratings from stable to negative following uncertainty over trade policy and the potential revision of global trade, while the strong escalation in the Middle East confirms that "geopolitical risks will continue to influence sovereign credit conditions, with the possibility of volatility and sudden turbulence". Growth estimates in 2025 were also reduced "for all regions": Western Europe, where they were cut by 0.3%, emerges as one of the areas "least vulnerable to trade uncertainties" while GDP forecasts for North America were halved, from 2 to 1%.
Saipem on the stock exchange +4.5% after outcome of appeal on Petrofac
Saipem soars on the stock exchange after the decision of the English Court of Appeal that accepted an appeal against Petrofac's restructuring plan. On May 20, according to analysts at Equita, the High Court of England and Wales approved a plan proposed by Petrofac to restructure the company in financial difficulty, unlocking $355 million in new financing. The plan was contested by Saipem and Samsung E&A, involved with Petrofac in the Thai Oil project. Saipem and Samsung have filed an appeal with the Court of Appeal to overturn the decision. At Piazza Affari, Saipem gains 4.5% to 2.40 euros.
Government Bonds: Mef buys back 4 BTPs and a CCTEU for 5 billion
In the buyback operation, the Ministry of Economy has repurchased five government bonds, four BTPs and one Ccteu maturing in 2026 for a maximum amount of 5 billion. In detail, the BTPs involved expire on April 15, June 1, August 28 and December 1, 2026. For the Ccteu, the maturity is April 15 of next year.
Bper: Pope, good performance of Sondrio ops, expected membership above 50%
Bper: Pope, good performance of Sondrio ops, expected membership above 50%
Stock Market: Europe files gains ahead of US data
European stock markets are smoothing out their initial gains, awaiting US employment data. In the Old Continent, the issue of tariffs is holding sway, after Donald Trump announced that there will be no postponement of the suspension that expires on July 9. On the currency front, the dollar is recovering with the euro settling at 1.1776 against the greenback.
Work, Istat: unemployment also rises
In May, the growth in job seekers (+7.1%, equal to +113 thousand units) concerns both genders and is widespread in all age groups. The unemployment rate rises to 6.5% (+0.4 points), the youth rate to 21.6% (+1.7 points). This is what Istat reports.
Istat, employment increases in May
In May, on a monthly basis, the growth of employed and unemployed is associated with the decline of inactive people. This is what Istat reports, explaining that the increase in employed people (+0.3%, equal to +80 thousand units) involves men, women, permanent employees, self-employed and those who are at least 50 years old; instead, there is a decline among fixed-term employees and in other age groups. The employment rate rises to 62.9% (+0.2 points).
On an annual basis, the number of employed people exceeds that of May 2024 by 1.7% (+408 thousand units); the increase concerns men, women, 25-34 year-olds and over 50 year-olds, compared to a decrease among 15-24 year-olds and 35-49 year-olds. The employment rate, in one year, increases by 0.8 percentage points.
Duties, Urso: “We hope for a UK-style agreement”
On duties "we hope that the negotiation will be successful in a pragmatic and responsible way, having the example of the United Kingdom in front of us, this could be the path", but in any case "the negotiation is up to the Commission, and we hope that it will end positively with a realistic and informed agreement". This was stated by the Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso.
Mediobanca, Gavio and Aurelia sell shares
With reference to the voluntary public exchange offer for all ordinary shares of Mediobanca promoted by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Beniamino Gavio and the company Aurelia, part of the Gavio group, have joined the consultation agreement between Mediobanca shareholders and have carried out transactions involving ordinary shares of Mediobanca.
Among the transactions, the sale, by Gavio, of 460,943 shares for a weighted average price of 19.0683 euros; while the company Aurelia sold 150 thousand shares for a weighted average price of 19.01788.
European stock markets open positively
Positive opening for the main European stock exchanges, with Paris recording the best data: the Cac 40 index marks a growth of 0.61%. Good start also for Frankfurt, with the Dax rising to +0.36%. London does even better, with the Ftse 100 advancing by 0.46%.
Milan, opening on the rise
The Milan Stock Exchange opens on a positive note: the Ftse Mib index begins trading by advancing by +0.41% and rising to 39,724 points.
Tokyo Stock Exchange Closes Lower
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed down -0.58%. A week before the July 9 deadline, Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on the Asian country and cast doubt on whether the United States would reach an agreement with Tokyo, which was the first trading partner to seek an agreement with him. But the American president said that "I will write them a letter to say 'thank you very much, we know you can't do what we need you to do and so you will pay 30%, 35%' or whatever we have agreed upon".
Btp-Bund, spread at 87 points
The spread between BTP and Bund starts off stable. The spread between the two government bonds opens the day at 87 points. The yield on the Italian 10-year bond rises to 3.45%, from 3.44% at yesterday's close.
Gas, price opens on the rise
Gas prices start slightly higher, while European storage levels are being looked at. In Amsterdam, prices gain 0.4% to 33.84 euros per megawatt hour.
Euro slightly down against dollar
The dollar regains some strength after having recorded the worst start to the semester since 1973: the euro opens slightly lower against the greenback at 1.787 (-0.13%). The single currency is instead up against the Japanese one (+0.14%) at 169.49. Dollar/yen at 143.79 (+0.26%).
Positive futures on Wall Street
After yesterday's mixed close, Wall Street futures are trading higher following the Senate's approval of President Donald Trump's controversial budget bill, which increases the federal deficit by $3 trillion. The PMI and ISM manufacturing indices are also up, performing better than expected. Contracts on the Dow Jones are up 0.19%, on the S&P 500 by 0.24%, and on the Nasdaq by 0.32%.
Duties, Trump: "No extension"
No extension: Donald Trump has said that the White House is not considering moving forward the truce on tariffs that began last April and is due to expire on July 9
Asian stocks start negatively
Seoul and Tokyo stock exchanges start in the red. The Korean list drops 0.70% after the start of trading, while the Japanese one records -1.13%.
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