Today's Stock Markets, July 1st. Markets in the spirit of caution awaiting tariff negotiations
MILAN – The start of the second half of the year is marked by caution, in a still tense geopolitical context. Investors are keeping a close eye on trade negotiations , as the expiration of the truce in the tariff war waged by the United States against the European Union approaches. One eye is also on the marathon debate underway in the US Senate on the budget proposed by the Trump administration. The Republican majority itself has presented numerous amendments to the Big Beautiful Bill , which should increase US public debt by 3.3 trillion dollars and which the White House wants to see approved by the July 4th holiday.
At Piazza Affari, the banking game is once again under the microscope, after Mediolanum started the sale of its historic stake in Mediobanca yesterday evening, thus avoiding having to choose between delivering the shares to MPS as part of the takeover bid launched by the Sienese bank on Piazzetta Cuccia, or supporting Alberto Nagel in the takeover of Banca Generali. Also yesterday, a new offer was announced: Banca CF+ wants 100% of Banca Sistema . The stock closed the stock market session with a sharp decline, beating the price discount on the last day of trading before the announcement.
Webuild signs contract for T2 section of Rome's Metro C
Webuild has signed the contract for the construction of Section T2 of Line C of the Rome Metro, for a total value of approximately 2 billion, of which 673 million are Webuild's share. The project, carried out by the Metro C consortium led by Webuild together with Vianini Lavori and commissioned by Roma Metropolitane on behalf of Roma Capitale, represents a complex engineering challenge, since the new section will pass under the Tiber River. The T2 section, approximately 4 kilometers long, will connect the Venezia station to Clodio/Mazzini with four new stations: Chiesa Nuova, San Pietro, Ottaviano (with interconnection to Line A) and Clodio/Mazzini. The Chiesa Nuova and San Pietro stations will be archaeo-stations designed to enhance the historical heritage and integrate with the urban fabric.
Milan continues to decline, Mediobanca slips and Generali rises
The Milan Stock Exchange (-0.4%) continues to decline, in line with other European stock exchanges. Negotiations with the United States for tariffs are under scrutiny. Mediobanca slips at Piazza Affari (-2.9%), after Mediolanum (-0.3%) placed a 3.5% stake. The spread between BTPs and Bunds stands at 86 points, with the yield on the Italian ten-year bond at 3.42%. Sales also on Leonardo (-2.2%) in the main stock exchange. Among the banks in decline, Mps (-2%), Popolare Sondrio (-1.1%) and Bper (-0.9%). Unicredit (-0.8%), Intesa (-0.5%) and Banco Bpm (-0.1%) also did poorly. Stm (-1.6%) and Tim (-1.1%) also performed poorly. In contrast, Cucinelli (+1.4%) and A2a (+1.3%). Generali (+1.2%) performed well. Moncler also did well (+0.6%).
Manufacturing recovery confirmed in Germany, PMI at 49 points
In June, the second reading of the German manufacturing PMI index was confirmed at 49 points, compared to 48.3 points in May, marking the highest value since August 2022. The data is in line with expectations.
Italian manufacturing slows down again, PMI at 48.4 points
The Hcob PMI Index, compiled by S&P Global, of the Italian manufacturing sector fell further in June and stood at 48.4 points, from 49.2 points in May. The figure is worse than analysts' expectations. The contraction in production has "contributed to the decline in the main index in mid-year, after a brief expansion recorded in May. Italian manufacturers said that a prolonged decline in new orders has forced them to reduce their production levels", explains a note.
De Guindos (ECB): “The Euro economy is not doing well, another rate cut will not help”
“The economy is not doing well. The euro area growth rate will be below 1% in 2025 and slightly higher in 2026. I think the risks are clearly tilted to the downside,” said ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos in an interview with Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, where he explained how the level of uncertainty is hurting the economy. “We see that investment is flat and consumption is not recovering either. I think the first quarter of the year was a bit of an illusion, in the sense that 0.6% was a distorted figure.
De Guindos (ECB): “We are in a good position on rates but every option is open”
“We have cut interest rates eight times, from 4% to 2%. I think, as President Lagarde said, we are in a good position to face the future, but the level of uncertainty is enormous. It is becoming a cliché, but I think we have to stay open and keep all options open for the future,” said ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos in an interview with Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal. “For example,” de Guindos added, “after we published our projections, the conflict between Israel and Iran occurred, which added another level of uncertainty.”
De Guindos (ECB): “Euro at 1.20 to the dollar is perfectly acceptable”
The exchange rate threshold of the euro at 1.20 to the dollar is "perfectly acceptable". This was said by the vice president of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, speaking to Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. "I think that the level is not a problem - said de Guindos - and that it is perfectly acceptable according to our projections". For the central banker, the situation would instead become "much more complicated" above that level.
Apple, the obstacle to the antitrust process with the US government is cleared
Mediobanca on the Stock Exchange -3.5% after the sale of Mediolanum shares
Mediobanca in sharp decline on the stock exchange after the placement of the 3.5% stake by Mediolanum. Yesterday Banca Mediolanum completed the sale of 29,095,110 Mediobanca shares at a price of 18.85 euros per share. The gross value of the placement amounts to 548.4 million. The sale was carried out through an accelerated bookbuilding process with institutional investors. At Piazza Affari Mediobanca loses 3.5% to 19.04 euros. Mediolanum is slightly down by 0.2% to 14.59 euros. A decline also for Mps, which launched the climb to Piazzetta Cuccia, which loses 2% to 7.07 euros.
Russian manufacturing PMI falls to 47.5, lowest in over 3 years
S&P Global’s Russian manufacturing PMI fell to 47.5 in June from 50.2 in May, signaling a return to contraction in industrial activity. This was the steepest decline since March 2022, as new orders resumed their decline and production contracted at a faster pace. New sales fell the most since March, weighed down by weak purchasing power and weak customer demand. Export sales also fell at the fastest pace since November 2022, due to unfavorable exchange rates. As a result, employment fell, with the fastest pace of job losses since April 2022. On the price front, input cost inflation fell to its lowest level since February 2020, reflecting the suspension of material price increases. Input cost inflation also slowed to its weakest pace since November 2022. Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened to its weakest since October 2022, amid growing concerns about global economic uncertainty.
Milan opens down (-0.21%), Mediobanca and Mps down
Piazza Affari opened slightly lower with investors cautious as they await developments in the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the EU on duties in view of the looming deadline of 9 July. The Ftse Mib index marked -0.21% at 39,709. The list was weighed down by banks with Mediobanca slipping to -3.78% and Mps to -2.46%. Among other financials, Intesa -0.11%, Unicredit -0.32%. Generali +0.4%. Banca Mediolanum at parity, has started the sale of its stake in Mediobanca, equal to approximately 3.5%, through the accelerated bookbuilding procedure. Luxury performed well with Brunello Cucinelli at +1.26% at the top of the basket. Among industrials, Leonardo -0.84%. Automotive fell with Stellantis -0.39%, Pirelli -0.21% and Iveco -0.96%. The main energy stocks were mixed, with Enel +0.73% and Eni -0.16%.
Mixed start for European stock markets, eyes on US budget and duties
European stock markets have had a weak and mixed start, awaiting further developments in trade negotiations with the United States and the approval of Donald Trump's controversial budget bill. The 90-day truce granted by President Trump for the introduction of reciprocal tariffs will expire next week. In Europe, attention will also be focused on fundamental economic data, including preliminary data on Eurozone inflation, which could influence expectations on the European Central Bank's interest rate outlook. Eyes will also be on the ECB forum underway in Sintra, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak. Investors are keeping a close eye on the marathon in the US Senate to approve Trump's spending bill, which Republicans are aiming to approve before the July 4 deadline imposed by the US president. The Cac 40 index in Paris advances by 0.10% to 7,673.84 points, the Dax 30 in Frankfurt rises by 0.11% to 23,954.39 points and the Ftse 100 in London records a +0.29% to 8,786.84 points. The Ftse Mib index, which in the first trading sessions at Piazza Affari, loses 0.21%.
Renault Changes Nissan Accounting, $9.5 Billion Loss
French automaker Renault has changed the way it accounts for its stake in Nissan, declaring that it has recorded a loss of 9.5 billion euros in financial impact, which - a statement said - is "without repercussions on cash flow or the calculation of dividends distributed by Renault Group." Renault is gradually reducing its stake in the Japanese company, which is struggling with falling sales and liquidity problems. Renault owns 35.7% of Nissan, 17.05% directly and the rest through a trust.
Licensing agreement between Safilo Group and Victoria Beckham
Safilo Group and Victoria Beckham, Creative Director and Founder of the eponymous brand, announce a new ten-year licensing agreement for the creation, production and marketing of Victoria Beckham brand eyewear collections, expiring in December 2035. The entire range of products - optical and sun - will be presented for the Spring-Summer 2026 season and will be available on the market from January 2026.
Nissan to Cut Production in Japan Again (Media)
Nissan plans to make large production cuts at its Oppama plant in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, as sales of the sole model currently produced at the plant slow, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the matter, saying the automaker will reduce output at the plant by nearly 50 percent, with capacity utilization currently at just 20 percent.
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