The future of semiconductors is worth a trillion dollars.

Globally, semiconductor companies plan to invest around $1 trillion in new facilities by 2030 , driving annual revenues above the same threshold . McKinsey reports this in its study Semiconductors have a big opportunity—but barriers to scale remain , which identifies five obstacles to growth , particularly in the European and North American markets: costs, materials, dependence on foreign markets, logistics, and talent shortages.

The first issue concerns costs. In the United States and Europe , building and operating semiconductor factories is significantly more expensive than in Asia. Even with government subsidies, a mature plant costs about 10% more to build and up to 35% more to operate in the US than in Taiwan. In Europe, operating costs are comparable to those in the US, with more expensive energy offset by cheaper labor. Mainland China, on the other hand, maintains a competitive advantage of up to 20% in operating costs and up to 40% in capital costs, thanks in part to government-backed equipment leasing programs.

The second challenge is related to materials . The production of next-generation chips – sub-10 nanometers – and advanced packaging techniques require increasing quantities of special materials . In the United States, materials consumption could rise by 60% by 2030, and in Europe by 65%, a growth that exceeds the increase in production capacity itself. Much of these supplies will have to come from Asia , increasing dependence on foreign markets.

The impact of miniaturization is equally evident on the materials front. The most advanced technological nodes, below ten nanometers, require an increasing number of mask layers —the layers of lithographic masks that etch the circuits onto the silicon wafer—along with complex packaging processes. All of this drives up materials consumption and increases their costs. McKinsey estimates that by 2030, materials demand will grow by 60% in the United States and 65% in Europe, well beyond the estimated increase in production capacity of between 45% and 55%.

Another obstacle is dependence on foreign sources for raw materials and packaging. Over 70% of key elements such as gallium, germanium, tungsten, and cobalt come from a single country, often in geopolitically sensitive areas. Similarly, the final stage of chip assembly and packaging is almost entirely located in Asia : three-quarters of the world's traditional packaging capacity is located in China, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan, while Taiwan and South Korea account for over 80% of global advanced packaging production. The United States and Europe remain marginal, with shares of less than 5%.

The fourth obstacle concerns logistics. Western markets lack ports and infrastructure on par with Asian ones : of the top twenty global ports, only five are located between the US and Europe. The leading American port, Charleston, ranks 53rd globally; in Europe, the best is Algeciras, ranked tenth. This disparity impacts costs and delivery times, exacerbating the fragility of supply chains.

Finally, there's the talent shortage. In the United States and Europe, job openings for semiconductor technical roles grew 75% annually between 2018 and 2022. The industry faces retirements, high attrition rates, growing demand, and insufficient training programs. Emerging countries like India and the UAE are also facing the same problem. One possible solution lies in talent clusters: geographic concentrations of companies and skills that attract investment, stimulate innovation, and create resilient ecosystems.