Stocks and duties, today's news. American GDP knocks out Wall Street and Europe
MILAN – The publication of the US GDP knocks out markets on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In the first three months of the year, the figure contracted by 0.3%, against the expected +0.4% and for the first time since 2022.
The uncertainty of Donald Trump 's trade policies weighs heavily, as he celebrates his second one hundred days in office today. The tycoon immediately pointed the finger at his predecessor, Joe Biden , stating that the contraction in GDP is a legacy of his presidency and that tariffs have nothing to do with it.
On the shareholder base of the Old Continent, the quarterly reports of the big financial institutions, from UBS to Santander to Barclays , are the main topic. In Italy, the focus is still on the game of risk and the results of Stellantis , which show the first effects of the commercial efforts . On the macro front, eyes are on the GDP data of some European states, including Italy, and the USA.
US oil inventories fall unexpectedly
Weekly U.S. oil inventories dropped by a surprise 2.70 million barrels, the EIA said, adding that the previous week they had increased by 244,000 barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of 390,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 4 million barrels (-1.08 million estimates) compared to a contraction of 4.4 million the previous week while distillate inventories increased by 930,000 barrels (-1.7 million forecasts) from a decline of 2.3 million the previous week. (AGI)
EU stocks still in the red
The main European stock markets are sharply down after the data coming from the US on the drop in GDP in the first quarter. In the wake of the negative opening of Wall Street, the Dax in Frankfurt marks -0.46%, London marks -0.15% and Paris marks -0.14%. Madrid does worse with -1.38%, negative also Zurich at -0.23%.
Morgan Stanley: “For Mediobanca, Banca Generali is better than Mps”
Morgan Stanley analysts prefer a merger between Mediobanca and Banca Generali to an acquisition of Piazzetta Cuccia by Monte. "Although we had previously estimated that the MPS offer could also create value, we believe that the execution risks and the potential loss of revenues put at risk the full use of the DTAs taken into account and therefore the financial merits of the operation", reads a report by the American bank that sees "a more coherent complementarity for Mediobanca and Banca Generali", considered "an opportunity to unlock value and pursue a targeted strategy".
Trump Attacks Biden for Economic Slowdown, “It’s His Legacy”
Donald Trump points the finger at Joe Biden after disappointing GDP results, which indicated the first contraction of the American economy since 2022. "This is Joe Biden's stock market, not Trump's. I took office on January 20th. Our country is going to have a boom but we owe Biden's legacy. It's going to take a while, it has nothing to do with tariffs, it's just that he leaves us with negative numbers, but when the boom starts, it will be unique. Be patient," Trump said on his social Truth.
Wall Street opens sharply lower after US GDP, Nasdaq -2.16%
Wall Street opened sharply lower after the contraction in US GDP in the first quarter of the year, confirming fears over the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies. The Dow Jones after early trading fell 1.05%, the S&P 500 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 2.16%.
Milan below 1% after US GDP drops
The 0.3% drop in US GDP in the first quarter, the first decrease in 3 years, drags Milan down, which falls below 1%. Piazza Affari, which was already in negative territory, worsens its performance and now loses 1.2% to 37,424 points. The other European stock exchanges also perform badly: Frankfurt loses 0.14%, Paris marks a +0.08% and London records a -0.06%.
Wall Street Futures Down With US GDP
Wall Street futures fell as the U.S. economy contracted. S&P 500 futures fell 1.0%, Nasdaq futures fell 1.4%.
US GDP slows in first quarter (-0.3%)
The US economy slows in the first three months of the year. The US gross domestic product fell by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the quarter of Donald Trump's inauguration at the White House, according to the preliminary estimate of the data, just published by the Department of Commerce. Expectations were for a +0.4%.
US Private Sector Adds 62,000 Jobs in April, Below Expectations
The U.S. private sector added just 62,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP survey ahead of Friday's official labor market data. The figure was well below expectations, with analysts betting on 115,000 jobs.
Inflation falls less than expected in Germany to 2.1%
Inflation in Germany fell to 2.1% in April, below estimates of 2% after rising to 2.2% in March. The reading rose from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, versus an expected increase of 0.3%, while the harmonized index fell from 2.3% to 2.2%, versus a forecast of 2.1%.
Milleri (Delfin): “Nagel did some things, appreciable”
"I think Alberto (Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca, ed.) has already done some things: he is changing the shape of the bank. Maybe he was pushed a little to do it but this is the task of financial shareholders who want to improve performance: he is trying to change the role of the bank and this is appreciated". This is what Francesco Milleri, number one of EssilorLuxottica and president of Delfin, a holding company that owns 19.8% of Mediobanca, 9.9% of Mps and 9.8% of Generali, said after the announcement of Piazzetta Cuccia's offer on Banca Generali. "We'll see if this is the right operation when we know the details," Milleri added.
Milleri (Delfin): “Ops Banca Generali? Better neither winners nor losers”
"It is really difficult to express opinions on an operation of which we do not have a minimum of details. We as Delfin are involved in both parts with a similar investment, so we would like this type of operation to have neither winners nor losers". Thus Francesco Milleri, number one of EssilorLuxottica and president of Delfin, the holding of the Del Vecchio family that owns 19.8% of Mediobanca, 9.9% of Mps and 9.8% of Generali, after the announcement of the offer of Piazzetta Cuccia on Banca Generali.
Generali: the day after the meeting, CEO Donnet sells shares for 7.5 million
The day after the shareholders' meeting that confirmed him at the helm of Generali, Philippe Donnet sold shares of the Lion for approximately 7.5 million euros. The transaction, as highlighted by Borsa Italiana filings relating to internal dealing, can be classified as a "sale also aimed at tax compliance on the variable remuneration paid in shares in relation to the execution of the Ltip plans". The package, sold by the CEO on the market in dozens of different transactions at an average price per share of 31.86 euros, consisted exactly of 235,468 lion shares. Which means a value of approximately 7.5 million. A note issued on the day of the shareholders' meeting highlighted how Donnet, on April 24, owned 2,298,515 Generali shares, equal to 0.15% of the share capital, for a value - at today's prices - of 73.5 million.
A. Fontana (Lombardy): “On US tariffs willingness to negotiate leaves room for optimism”
"From the very beginning I said that the imposition of duties could have extremely negative consequences for the economy of Lombardy. That said, now it seems to me that there has been a partial willingness to reopen negotiations and to talk between President Trump, Europe and Italy" then the situation "certainly worries" even if this willingness "leaves us a little more optimistic than when the announcement was made". Thus the president of the Lombardy Region, Attilio Fontana, speaking on Sky Tg24 Start.
Chestnut, we won't go up to Anima until we're under Ops
Banco Bpm does not intend to increase its stake in Anima to 100% as long as the bank remains subject to the Unicredit takeover bid and the constraints of the passivity rule. "We are at 90%, we are satisfied because it allows us to integrate the company, we are under takeover bid so we do not intend to make any move until the situation we are subject to is clarified", said CEO Giuseppe Castagna at a press conference. "We are calmly waiting for now, we are moving forward, the integration is possible, then in the future we will see what to do", he added
Gold, peak purchases from China: +48% in the quarter
Chinese investors, feeling the full brunt of the trade war with the United States, have shifted strongly toward gold as a safe haven in the first quarter, in the form of bars and coins, but also financial securities. In the first quarter, demand for gold in China increased significantly, 12% year-on-year and 48% from the previous quarter, reaching 124 tonnes.
Auto Market: Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz Profits Collapse
Milan turns negative at -0.49%, down bank stocks
The Milan Stock Exchange turns negative at mid-morning, the Ftse Mib index marks -0.48% at 37,693.53 points. The banking sector stocks are in decline in particular: Unicredit -1.93%, Banco Bpm -1.84%, Intesa Sanpaolo -1.25%, Mediobanca -1.20%, Bper Banca -1.16%, Mps -1.02%, Banca Generali -0.29%.
France's GDP grows 0.1% in first quarter
France recorded a slight increase in GDP, of just 0.1%, in the first quarter of 2025, hampered by low consumption and investment, the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) reported in its first estimates for the period January-March 2025. The moderate increase in GDP in the first quarter, in line with INSEE's forecasts, follows a contraction of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the 'backlash' of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. In the first quarter, the economy was affected by low consumption and investment in negative territory for both businesses and public administrations.
Castagna (CEO Banco Bpm): “Unicredit should say if the offer goes ahead”
Even the CEO of Banco Bpm, Giuseppe Castagna, like the president Massimo Tononi, invites Unicredit to say whether it intends to go ahead with its offer or give up. "It seems to us that they should come to a decision and say whether the offer goes ahead," said Castagna, reiterating the reasons why the bank rejected Unicredit's offer and the uncertainties underlying the proposal of the bank led by Andrea Orcel. "It is an operation that is only to the advantage of Unicredit shareholders and to the detriment of Banco Bpm shareholders."
German GDP in line with estimates, +0.2% in the first quarter
Germany's gross domestic product grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This is in line with expectations. The Federal Statistical Office Destatis also reports that both household final consumption expenditure and capital formation increased compared to the previous quarter. In a year-on-year comparison, this is -0.2% and also in line with expectations.
Italian GDP accelerates, +0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
Milan at +0.14%, Campari runs and Stellantis slows down
The Milan Stock Exchange remains positive although it is filing with the Ftse Mib which marks a +0.14% and falls below 38 thousand points. The spread rises with the difference between Btp and Bund which is at 111 basis points while the yield of the Italian ten-year falls further and is at 3.57%. The order of the leading stocks changes with Campari which jumps by 4%. Always well bought Mps (+1.78%) which within the risk underway among the banks has launched a takeover bid on Mediobanca (+0.74%) which in turn has turned its sights on Banca Generali. Also in the credit sector, Banco Bpm is weak (-0.2%) recipient of the takeover bid by Unicredit (-0.17%). A rise of 0.5% both for Popolare di Sondrio which has the budget meeting and the renewal of a third of the board of directors on the agenda and Bper which has launched an offer on the Valtellina institute. Stellantis (+1.19%) slows after the start-up jump while the automotive group confirmed the new CEO within the first half of the year. Among the other well-bought stocks Unipol (+1.7%), Recordati (+1.45) and Poste (+1%). Weak Eni (-0.58%), Tenaris (-0.57%) St (-0.57%).
Milan opens at +0.48%, then accelerates
The Milan Stock Exchange opens cautiously higher at +0.48% and then rises to +0.60% in early trading with 38,063.68 points, in line with other European stock markets. Stellantis shares stand out, gaining 2.7% at the start after the presentation of the first quarter accounts showing revenues down 14% and guidance suspended but also a growth in the share in Europe to 30. Banking stocks also performed well, in the days in which the risk of possible acquisitions is heating up again. At the start, Mps marks +1.87%, Intesa Sanpaolo +1.11%, Mediobanca +0.33% after the takeover bid of the last few days on Banca Generali (+0.96%). The energy sector is down: Saipem -0.59%, Tenaris -0.54%, Eni just below parity at -0.06%.
Stellantis jumps to +3.7% in stock market opening
Cautious start to the upside for Europe, eyes on the quarterly results
European stock markets have started cautiously higher. Eyes remain on tariff negotiations in the wake of the Trump administration's decision to ease tariffs on the auto sector. Investors are bracing for a flurry of corporate earnings. On Wall Street, four of the Magnificent Seven will publish their results, with Meta and Microsoft reporting today and Apple and Amazon reporting tomorrow. In addition, the US will publish first-quarter GDP data and the PCE, the Fed's preferred price index, today, while the US employment report for April is expected on Friday.
The Cac 40 index in Paris marks an increase of 0.60% in early trading to 7,600.96 points, the Dax 30 in Frankfurt advances by 0.51% to 22,561.46 points and the Ftse 100 in London rises by 0.15% to 8,476.23 points. The Ftse Mib index gains 0.64% to 38,116 points.
Credit Agricole Profits Down to 1.8 Billion, Taxes Weigh
Credit Agricole closed the first quarter with a profit of 1.82 billion, lower than analysts' estimates and down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024. Additional tax charges weighed on the results. Record revenues, up 6.6% to 7.26 billion. The boost came from Asset gathering and large clients. High profitability with a contained cost/income ratio (cost increase of 3.2% in the same quarter excluding exceptional items) and a return of 15.9% on tangible equity. The cost of risk was stable. "The group posted high-level results this quarter, driven by strong revenue growth, despite exceptional taxation", underlined the CEO, Philippe Brassac.
Societe Generale, profit doubles to 1.6 billion in the quarter
Societe Generale closed the quarter with a net profit more than doubled to 1.61 billion euros, beating analysts' estimates. The disposals of assets, it said in a note, contributed 202 million euros to the final result.
Santander grows in the quarter, profit at 3.4 billion
Banco Santander increases profit by 19% to 3.4 billion euros and earnings per share by 26% in the first quarter, reaffirming its 2025 targets. Revenues increased by 1% to 15.5 billion euros, thanks to record net fees. The target for the year is 62 billion euros in revenues. "Looking ahead, our focus is on helping customers navigate an uncertain external environment. All our markets remain resilient and we are monitoring the situation closely, ensuring we continue to support the people, businesses and communities we serve," emphasizes President Ana Botín.
Oil prices fall, Wti returns below 60 dollars
Oil prices fell this morning on the commodity markets: WTI for delivery in June is trading at $59.66 a barrel with a decrease of 1.26% while Brent, also for delivery in June, is trading at $63.50 with a reduction of 1.17%.
Barclays, in the quarter revenues +11% to 7.7 billion
Barclays beats analysts' estimates in the first quarter with revenues of 7.71 billion pounds, a net interest margin of 3.52 billion, a profit attributable to 1.86 billion. This is stated in a note that, at the balance sheet level, highlights a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9 percent. For 2025, it expects a net interest margin in the United Kingdom of more than 7.6 billion pounds and for 2026, total income estimated at around 30 billion pounds. "We remain committed and confident in achieving our previously announced financial and distribution targets for 2025 and 2026" underlines the CEO CS Venkatakrishnan: The bank plans to return "at least £10 billion of capital to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, through dividends and share buybacks, with a continued preference for buybacks."
Trump: “China wants to make a deal and we want an understanding”
“We will make a fair trade deal with China”: Beijing “wants to make a deal, we want to make a deal”. This was stated by US President Donald Trump, reiterating that the United States has “been abused” from a trade point of view “by friends and enemies”.
Trump criticizes Powell: 'She's not doing a good job'
“Prices are falling but fake news says they are rising,” said Donald Trump on the occasion of his first hundred days in office. “There is a person at the Fed who is not doing a good job,” the US president emphasized, admitting that he should not criticize the head of the American central bank. On rates, “I know more than he does,” the tycoon observed, referring to Jerome Powell but without naming him.
UBS profit falls to $1.7 billion but beats estimates
UBS reports first-quarter profit of $1.7 billion, down 3.6% but beating estimates. Revenues fall 1.4% to $12.56 billion Global wealth management reported net new assets of $32 billion. Asset management reported net new revenues of $7 billion. The integration with Credit Suisse was in line with expectations and delivered an additional $900 million in gross cost savings, bringing cumulative cost savings to $8.4 billion, or 65% of the $13 billion forecast. The consolidation of Swiss branches was completed ahead of the wave of client account migrations that will begin in the second quarter.
Nicaragua, Boom in Remittances from the US
Nicaragua received more than 1.4 billion dollars in remittances during the first quarter of 2025, which represents a growth of 26.3% compared to the same period in 2024, the Central American nation's Central Bank reported. The United States is the main country of origin of remittances for Nicaragua, with 1.208 billion dollars arriving from the United States between January 1 and March 31 of this year, equivalent to 83.8% of the total, with a growth of 29.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024, or 277.3 million dollars more. The second country from which the most remittances arrive is Costa Rica with 107.4 million dollars, equivalent to 7.5% of the total.
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