🏈 Fantasy FB Do Not Draft list: CMC and more

Everyone knows what talented San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey can achieve statistically when he is fully healthy. McCaffrey dominated fantasy football during the 2019 season, and he did it again in 2023 in his first full campaign with the 49ers, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns, moving fantasy managers to ignore the all-or-nothing nature of relying on him. Few bothered to even debate other options with the top pick in 2024 drafts. It was obvious.

It is hardly so obvious what to do with McCaffrey now. Overeager fantasy managers can convince themselves of virtually anything, and many view McCaffrey as one of the top PPR picks again, resulting in a first-round ADP. Why can't he soar past 300 PPR points again? Well, with good luck in the health department, perhaps McCaffrey will, but after a nightmare season in which fantasy's top pick (and perhaps the 49ers) misled everyone about his mysterious lower leg malady and then we watched him debut in Week 10 and sputter through four disappointing on-field weeks, he is far from trustworthy.

Welcome to another season of the often misunderstood Do Not Draft list, where the intent is to discuss the players whose inherent draft day value might not match up with how some of us view the players statistically. That's really all this is. Is there a right draft spot or salary cap figure in which to secure McCaffrey and all his wild upside to your teams? Of course there is, but for me it sure is not in the top 10 of drafts when there are so many safe, reliable wide receivers and even a few running backs I prefer. Risk versus reward is a real thing in fantasy football, but Round 1 sure is a dangerous place to act on it.

This wasn't the first time McCaffrey, now 29 years old, demoralized so many fantasy managers, and perhaps even his own franchise. The star of 2019 was the bust of the 2020 season. He played in only 10 games over two seasons, before the Carolina Panthers traded him to the 49ers midway through 2022. McCaffrey looked rejuvenated and trustworthy. He did not look rejuvenated or trustworthy in 2024. Guessing how he will perform -- and how often -- is a big part of the problem. We don't have to guess with most other players in the first two rounds. Why take that chance here?

Odds are I will fade each of the top-scoring PPR running backs from the past two seasons, though their situations are different. Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley is sure to take a statistical step back overall, though he should remain productive. Just not as productive as last season because, c'mon, he can't do all that again. Be realistic, people. There is no way Barkley is handling 378 touches again (a staggering 482 when including the postseason) this season, or perhaps ever. It's also worth noting he has missed at least three games in four of his past six seasons, so anticipating missed time should be part of the calculus for fantasy managers. The Eagles are analytically inclined. They know how injuries can derail a season, and really, this franchise is playing for January, anyway.

I will not pick Barkley early in the first round because I am loading up on the safe wide receivers there. Still, as with McCaffrey, we have seen what is possible, and it is awesome. There is ample historical evidence here that hefty workload results in injury and/or major decline in performance the next season, and both McCaffrey and Barkley have a history of missing games. In fact, it feels relevant to point out these fellows have combined for only six career top-5 finishes in PPR fantasy scoring. Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry has done this five of the past six seasons, though he is going later in drafts.

Back to Barkley: Since 2000, there have been 12 instances of a running back logging 400 carries in a season (including playoffs), and none of them finished the next season as a top-10 RB. Not one was close. Eight players rushed for 2,000 yards in a season before Barkley. None of them even reached 1,500 yards the next season. The Super Bowl champions have options, including a QB who scores nearly all the goal-line touchdowns. Barkley is safer than McCaffrey, more likely to provide top-5 RB numbers with something like 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns over 14 games. McCaffrey is the greater risk. How much risk are you cool with?

Here are other players I keep ignoring in myriad -- and I mean myriad -- mock drafts and real leagues this summer. The Do Not Draft list is about fading players at their current popularity, or ADP. Unless some unfavorable health news is released, McCaffrey isn't falling in drafts anytime soon. That might be the case with most of the players on this list. Study ADP, not only at ESPN but in other places, and make your own decisions on whom to roster and whom to let someone else worry about.

• In what has become an annual tradition, I'll start by highlighting the first quarterbacks off the draft board, because under the current rules (starting only one QB) they are not strong values in the first few rounds. This hardly means Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will struggle this season. They should be great. You just might need the running back or wide receiver you could choose instead in the first few rounds more. There aren't enough of the typical "flex" options to go around. Supply versus demand matters, so pass up Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow early in drafts, too. Give me a quarterback (or two) after Round 10.

• Even after Round 10 or so, there are some quarterbacks who are not worth it. Start with the beleaguered Anthony Richardson Sr. If you think this is the magic year when he finally stays healthy and plays at a consistently high level, go for it. I do not believe he will. Daniel Jones probably plays more than Richardson. If you believe the Green Bay Packers want Jordan Love and his propensity for making mistakes throwing the football 500-plus times again, as he did in 2023, go for it. I do not believe. And congrats to new Seattle Seahawks starter Sam Darnold for turning his stunning 2024 campaign with the Vikings into this deal, but I don't see a repeat. Ignore the eerily connected Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, too. They aren't aging like Tom Brady did. Then again, who does?

• Here is a question for you: One current New York Jets player boasts a 1,000-yard rushing season. Who is it? Nope, it is not Breece Hall. It is new QB Justin Fields, for the 2022 Chicago Bears! If you ask which one of them is more likely to surpass this notable, but eminently reachable, mark for a running back in 2025, I have doubts for both, but only one of them is going in the fourth round. That's a problem for Hall, who is two years removed from his ACL surgery but is coming off an inefficient 2024 season and likely to see less volume moving forward, notably in the passing game. Hall has value, but he was outscored on a per-game PPR basis by several options who go a round or more later in ADP (Chuba Hubbard, James Conner, David Montgomery), and I don't see that changing.

• Other than Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty, who seems to be a lock for volume and high performance, I have been fading other first-year running backs at their current ADPs. Everyone loves the rookies because they haven't failed yet, but we must question safe pathways to playing time for Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson and TreVeyon Henderson. It's all guesswork, and obviously it depends on ADP. Hampton and Harvey seem awfully popular in drafts. Veteran coaches like to lean on, well, veterans. Volume doesn't appear to be an issue with Hubbard, Conner, Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and other veterans. Call 'em boring, unexciting picks, but in most cases, you know what you are getting.

• I liked Javonte Williams when he came out of North Carolina and handled 246 touches as a Denver Broncos rookie. Then came the knee injury. Williams might not belong on this list because he goes late enough in drafts that one might as well take a chance, but there might not be much fantasy upside with any Dallas RB. Frankly, we could say that about two other NFC East teams as well, since the New York Giants and Washington Commanders will have timeshares, limiting the upside and consistency for all of Brian Robinson Jr., pass-catching Austin Ekeler, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and rookie Cam Skattebo. I'm not too interested in the Jacksonville Jaguars' running backs, either.

• I think everyone is overrating the Kansas City Chiefs' receiving corps of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and, to a lesser degree, Hollywood Brown. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes didn't fall short of 300 fantasy points the past two seasons because his young wide receivers underachieved or were not available. It wasn't about aging TE Travis Kelce (who oddly has become a draft-day bargain this season), either. Yeah, the Chiefs got older. They finished 15th in points scored the past two seasons for many reasons. Mahomes is not suddenly going back to 5,000 passing yards. Rice has off-field issues, and he might incur a multiple-game suspension this season. Worthy had an uneven rookie season. Brown hasn't done much since 2021. The Chiefs will run the football; they will defend well; and, for the third consecutive season, nobody will reach 1,000 rushing or receiving yards.

• Aaron Rodgers wasn't notably good for the Jets last season, but still, lead wide receiver Garrett Wilson caught 101 passes for 1,104 yards, and in-season addition Davante Adams averaged nearly 80 receiving yards per game there. Now Rodgers hooks up with former Seattle Seahawks star DK Metcalf and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Metcalf looks like he should be a WR1, but the numbers haven't been there and comparing him to Wilson or Adams feels like a reach. Metcalf averaged six TDs per season in three years with competent QB Geno Smith. Is Rodgers really an upgrade over Smith? Metcalf is going in drafts as a WR2, but this doesn't look like a better situation for him in Pittsburgh.

• Deebo Samuel Sr. and Cooper Kupp are going late enough in drafts that the investment cost isn't a big deal, but these fellows looked done last season with the 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. Now the Commanders and Seahawks take their shots. Samuel, his body always dealing with something, can't see major volume in Washington, and don't count on anywhere near the typical rushing attempts we saw in the past. Kupp missed 18 games over the past three seasons. Not all veterans are capable of reliable production. The end of the line is nearing for Samuel and Kupp.

• When it comes to WRs in drafts this season, it might be best to avoid obvious injury risks like Samuel and Kupp, and other players people keep talking themselves into. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to know veteran Chris Godwin (ankle) will not be ready for Week 1, or even September at all, though fantasy managers might not be believing it. Same with the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk (knee). It always seems to take longer for players with knee injuries to return. New Orleans Saints star Chris Olave (concussions) is a different matter. I can see investing in one compromised WR in the middle rounds, but no more than that.

• I'm not sure it matters which quarterback starts for the Colts this season, Richardson or Jones. I would value Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs more with even Aaron Rodgers throwing them the ball, so that is saying a lot.

• Mark Andrews led the position with 11 touchdown catches last season, and that is awesome. The problem is, 13 tight ends caught more passes and 19 saw more targets, and those figures are a more reliable gauge for the future. Emerging Ravens teammate Isaiah Likely is younger and not in a contract year, and even if he misses a few September games due to his foot injury, he will be a factor. Touchdown regression is a real thing, and the Ravens will likely chop targets for Andrews, too.

• You know those terrific numbers Jonnu Smith achieved last season with the Miami Dolphins? They're not happening with the Steelers. No shot. Pat Freiermuth remains a Steeler, and an effective one. Aaron Rodgers is the QB. I'm not expecting rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren to be top-10 options, but I would take the chance on them over Smith and the oft-injured Dallas Goedert. One can also stream tight end as a reasonable strategy.

As you prepare your draft board, think about the right price for each player (I recommend ranking players in tiers). If you can't get a player at your preferred price, remember that you don't have to draft him.