College football futures: Why a +2000 longshot offers the best odds to win 2026 Big Ten title
For the last three seasons the Big Ten title chase has been a leading indicator for the College Football Playoff. The 2023 and '25 conference champions, Michigan and Indiana respectively, both went on to win the national championship. Meanwhile '24 Big Ten champion Oregon lost to eventual national champion Ohio State, suggesting that winning the conference title may be more difficult than winning the national title.
The upcoming 2026 Big Ten race once again figures to feature national championship-caliber teams. The Buckeyes are +180 favorites at DraftKings to win the conference and +600 favorites to lift the CFP trophy, but they are only slight favorites over the defending champion Hoosiers (+250) and wildly talented Ducks (+260).
There is a significant gap to the next tier of teams, led by USC (+1400), Michigan (+1500) and Penn State (+2000).
So which team offers the best value to win the Big Ten? Here's one longshot.
Ohio State is a deserving favorite. The Buckeyes have arguably the best player in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith, a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback in Julian Sayin and an experienced offensive line. But they must replace eight starters on defense, including three who were selected in the top 11 of the NFL Draft.
Indiana has key players coming back from the national championship team at important positions, including offensive tackle Carter Smith, and coach Curt Cignetti has proven that none of his teams should be underestimated. But Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is obviously a major loss.
Oregon has built a loaded roster, led by potential No. 1 overall pick Dante Moore and arguably the defensive line in the country, that was pointed to win the national title this season and is filled with players who opted to bypass the NFL Draft and return to Eugene. But the Ducks will have three new starters on the offensive line, including at both tackle spots, and new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
Not to mention, there's little incentive to dip into the futures market on a team at +260 or shorter when that ticket cannot be cashed until early December.
The beauty of a futures market is the chance to play a team at a big price. And this year that team is Penn State (+2000).
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Do the Nittany Lions have a roster on the level of Ohio State's, Indiana's or Oregon's? Certainly not. After a disappointing 7-6 season which included the firing of coach James Franklin, Penn State lost a massive 46 players to the transfer portal.
To fill the void new coach Matt Campbell, who was hired from Iowa State, brought in 38 players from the transfer portal, including 24 who played for him last season in Ames, Iowa. Rocco Becht, who started 39 games for the Cyclones and passed for 64 touchdowns against 27 interceptions over four seasons, gives the Nittany Lions one of the most experienced quarterbacks in college football. He will not have to learn a new system; like Campbell and Becht, offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser also made the move to State College, Pa., from Ames.
Safety Jeremiah Cooper, who led the Cyclones in tackles (77) last season, gives Penn State another playmaker in the secondary, which should be the defense's strength this season.
That alone is not enough to win the Big Ten, but Campbell's teams have a history of punching above its weight. He has won his conference's Coach of the Year award four times (three in the Big 12 and one in the MAC). In his 10 seasons in Ames, Iowa State beat Oklahoma and Texas a combined four times. All other Cyclones coaches have beaten those two teams eight times combined.
Former Iowa State running back Breece Hall summed up the team's success against the conference's talent-laden heavyweights thusly, "Five-star culture versus five-star players."
Campbell and the Nittany Lions certainly will face a slew of five-star players in the Big Ten — but not this season. In fact, Penn State's 2026 Big Ten schedule is a major reason the Nittany Lions could be the sleeper team in the conference.
Penn State has a slate that would be tough — for a MAC team. The Nittany Lions avoid the top three favorites in the conference — Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon. Their toughest opponent on paper, USC, has to fly east to State College. Penn State's toughest two road games figure to come at Michigan and Washington.
Surviving that schedule with only one loss should put the Nittany Lions in the mix for the Big Ten Championship Game. And if they are able to get to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Penn State futures backers would be able to hedge all they want.
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