Poll shows Tories racing ahead of major rival party for the first time since Boris Johnson

The Conservatives have stormed past Labour to take the lead in the polls for the first time since Boris Johnson occupied 10 Downing Street. The Telegraph's poll tracker has the Tories at 18.5%, their best average score since May, signaling a remarkable turnaround under Kemi Badenoch's leadership.

In contrast, Labour has slumped to 18%, barely more than half their vote share in the last general election, after Sir Keir Starmer endured another disastrous few weeks at the helm. The Tories last held an advantage over Labour in late 2021, when Mr Johnson's popularity spectacularly collapsed amidst the partygate scandal and fierce internal Tory battles.

The Telegraph states it's poll tracker weights the latest data from renowned pollsters including YouGov, Opinium and Savanta based on their accuracy in predicting the previous election outcome.

Reform UK has consistently topped the polls since March, enjoying a substantial double-digit lead over both the Tories and Labour. Nigel Farage's party is currently on course to secure power at the next election, polling at 29.3%, only marginally down from their September high of 30.6%.

The Greens have seen their support more than double since the last election, hitting 15.5% under their new leader Zack Polanski, as left-wing voters abandon Labour in significant numbers.

This puts them comfortably ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who are languishing at 12.7%. Mrs Badenoch took over as Tory leader last November, quickly facing doubts about her future as critics accused her of failing to make an impact or deliver policy swiftly enough.

During her bid to replace Rishi Sunak, she pledged a fresh approach to politics, initially focused on restoring the Conservatives' "first principles" in the wake of last year's unprecedented election defeat.

The Tory faithful were energized by Mrs Badenoch's most significant policy announcement to date at the party's annual October conference: a commitment to abolish stamp duty. The Tory leader also drew praise last month for her budget response, in which she fiercely criticized Rachel Reeves and lambasted her £30bn tax hikes.

Determined to distance herself from the previous Tory government's record, Mrs Badenoch has vowed to abandon net zero targets and withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights. However, the scale of the challenge facing the Tories is underscored by the fact that they are still polling well below the 23.7% vote share they achieved in the 2024 general election disaster.

On Sunday, a high-ranking Conservative MP hinted at the possibility of a pre-election pact with Reform. Matt Vickers, the deputy Tory chairman, told a presenter to "come back and ask" about a potential 2029 election deal if his party's fortunes haven't improved by then.

Although Mrs Badenoch has dismissed talk of a formal coalition, many Tory MPs anticipate either an informal pre-election agreement or an outright joint ticket. Next year's local elections are seen as a major threat to both the Tories and Sir Keir's Labour, with the Greens and Reform poised to capture significant support from disaffected voters on both the left and right.