François Bayrou wants to submit his austerity cure to a referendum

François Bayrou is obsessed with the sound management of public finances. To the point of wanting to share his passion with the French: he is considering calling a referendum so that they approve a drastic reduction in public spending. "We need a comprehensive plan to return to balance" the accounts , he argues in an interview with the Journal du Dimanche . Within a few years, " debt servicing alone – that is, annual interest – could reach 100 billion euros," he warns, or the "budgets for National Education and Defense combined."

For the elected representative from Béarn, the theme is not new. He has carried it into his three presidential campaigns. And, during his general policy statement last January , he again called for a surge on the subject: "All the so-called government parties have a responsibility in the situation created in recent decades" but also "all the opposition parties" which, "constantly demanding additional spending, have also danced the fatal tango that has led us to the edge of the precipice."

He also intends to return, within four years, "below the 3% (of GDP) deficit mark." It was 5.8% last year. To achieve this, the savings to be made are in the order of "40 billion" euros, he projects, partly by reducing the number of civil servants . Social Security is also in his sights. During his general policy statement in January, François Bayrou estimated that half of the state deficit was attributable to the pension system.

By submitting this reform plan to a referendum, he aims at nothing less than obtaining "the support of the French people" for a "comprehensive plan" that "will require efforts from everyone. " The referendum proposal is already an ideological undertaking to promote liberal doctrine among the French people.

The goal is to unblock the situation in the Assembly, where his very small majority, the "common base" which includes the Macronists and "Les Républicains", has only 211 deputies out of 577. This is a way to put pressure on his allies, but also on the far right, which he will need to get the budget adopted in the autumn.

Along with the central bloc, the National Rally, which proposed $15 billion in budget cuts last October, shares the idea of ​​reducing public spending. Since 2022, finance laws have been passed through the use of Article 49.3. The referendum is also an opportunity to contest what might emerge from the conclave on pension reform, which is expected to deliver its work next June.

Such a consultation can only be called by the President of the Republic on the proposal of the government or both Houses of Parliament. The referendum may therefore never be organized. It should be remembered that, as early as his 2017 campaign, Emmanuel Macron had considered consulting the people on points in his program. Since the beginning of this year, he has already considered a referendum on the end of life , on banning minors from social media, and on work (without anyone really knowing what it involves). The president has not yet ruled out his head of government's offer, but he has not made his enthusiasm known either. "The prime minister is talking about a plan for reforms and savings, and it is difficult to say anything until this plan is presented," one of his close associates told AFP.

On the left, a completely different way of rebalancing public accounts has long been advocated: the NFP amendments in the autumn had made it possible to obtain 58 billion euros in additional revenue before the Macronists, the right and the RN refused, on November 12, to vote on the revenue part of the budget. For the Green and Social MP Clémentine Autain, François Bayrou's proposal reflects "once again the refusal to increase taxes on the super-rich and large economic groups, under the cover of a generic 'the solution is not new taxes'."

Along with limiting public spending, François Bayou's other obsession is to stay in office. His fate hangs in the balance on the 2026 budget vote this fall. He therefore fears the National Assembly as much as a chicken fears a fox. Lacking a majority, his government has not submitted any structural bills for debate. And his proposal for a referendum on a set of reforms is just one more way to circumvent Parliament.

This practice was denounced on Sunday by the president (LFI) of the Finance Committee of the Assembly , Éric Coquerel: "The normal thing in a parliamentary democracy is for the National Assembly to vote on the budget." Socialist senator Thierry Cozic pointed out that eight years of Macronism have led to "1,300 billion in additional debt . " According to this parliamentarian, "the referendum that François Bayrou is talking about took place last July, and the results were clear: nearly 100 fewer deputies for the presidential party."

There is another obsession of François Bayrou: "We produce less than our neighbors," he laments in the Journal du Dimanche . According to him, this is not due to the cost of capital, while the CAC 40 trusts paid record dividends of 70 billion euros in 2024. The low production is, according to the Prime Minister, the result of excessive bureaucratization. In his general policy statement in January, he had envisaged new "simplifications, eliminations and reductions of useful obligations." In other words: giving company management free rein in social and environmental matters.

As a good centrist, François Bayrou is not above a contradiction: France does not produce enough, but, in the interview that runs over three pages, the job cuts at Vencorex or ArcelorMittal , which he allows to happen, are not addressed. His attitude is entirely consistent with the solution he delivered on April 15th at the conference on public finances: "We do not work enough." It is up to the employees, or at least those who are still lucky enough to have a job, to pay.