Budget referendum: how many cushions does François Bayrou have in his billiard shot?

In France, when referendum initiators lose, they usually accuse voters of having answered the wrong question. Or even of ignoring their majority "no," as was the case after the last such consultation, twenty years ago, on the draft European constitutional treaty. What would that be, a fortiori, about a question the French don't even dream of ever being asked?

François Bayrou had a wide range of possible issues to put to the voters, from proportional representation in the legislative elections to the repeal of pension reform . Instead, the Prime Minister had the brilliant idea of ​​having the French themselves endorse a super-austerity plan from which they would be the first to suffer.

The agenda includes massive budget cuts in public services and social benefits, and even an increase in working hours, if we read between the lines of what the Prime Minister modestly calls the "production component" in his comments to the Journal du Dimanche .

While 68% of the French are still opposed to the reform that requires them to work two more years (Ifop poll for the CGT), and the Prime Minister has no majority to govern, does he sincerely believe he is able to generate "the support of the French for the reforms" ? What, in another context, would pass for common sense is here a gamble. There is no chance that such a referendum will lead to the result he hopes for.

From then on, the only question that matters is: how many lines does François Bayrou's shot have? To what end? To put pressure on the LR and RN deputies in particular, to thwart the threat of censure? To allow Emmanuel Macron to escape the rut in which he has been mired since the dissolution (it is up to him to call the referendums)? Or to prepare minds for an austerity plan adopted in a more conventional manner? At a time when the head of government is mired in the Bétharram affair, his goal is perhaps more prosaic: to stay in power, against all odds.