United States: Unexpected drop in GDP at the start of Donald Trump's term

President Donald Trump, who has vowed to make the United States richer, faced figures Wednesday, April 30, showing a decline in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, while the US economy was still thriving at the end of 2024.

GDP, which measures the creation of national wealth, declined in the first three months of the year covering the start of Donald Trump's second term, whose tariff policy sent shockwaves around the world and within his own country.

For his part, the President of the United States judged that the economic slowdown in the United States was a "relict" of his predecessor Joe Bien and had "nothing to do with customs duties" , in a message on his Truth Social network.

"Our country is going to take off economically, but first we have to get rid of the remnants of Joe Biden. It's going to take a while, it has nothing to do with tariffs, it's just that he left us with bad statistics," wrote Donald Trump, urging his fellow citizens to "BE PATIENT!!!"

At an annualized rate, the preferred measure in the United States, GDP contracted by 0.3%, according to data published by the Department of Commerce. This represents a decline of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. This result is significantly below the expectations of most analysts, who nevertheless anticipated a serious slowdown (+0.4%) for the world's largest economy.

"The decline in GDP in the first quarter primarily reflects an increase in imports, which are excluded from the calculation of GDP, as well as a decrease in federal government spending," the ministry said in a statement. "These trends were partly offset by increased investment, consumer spending and exports," it added.

Experts say the surge in overseas purchases is the result of companies' desire to get ahead of the imposition of new tariffs and take advantage of conditions prior to Donald Trump's forced economic overhaul.

The US economy was previously more than humming along, with growth of 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024 (annualized), full employment, and inflation on the verge of being brought under control.

According to another release Wednesday morning, job creation in the U.S. private sector slowed sharply in April, falling short of expectations. Another indicator is expected this morning in the United States: the PCE, an index that serves as both a gauge of inflation and consumption.

The data comes as the White House occupant celebrates the first 100 days of his second term, which began on January 20. On Tuesday evening, at a rally in Michigan, Donald Trump again defended his protectionist offensive, which he claims promises a new economic "golden age."

"I usually think the impact of presidents on economic performance is overstated, especially during the first 100 days in office," Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University, said before the GDP figures were released. "But this time it's different, because the surge in imports is a direct result of buyers avoiding the president's tariffs," she added.

Since April, the government has significantly increased tariffs on foreign products and more than doubled surcharges on those from China. Beijing has retaliated with further tariffs, which have further hampered American exports, which have also been the target of calls for a boycott.

A devastating snowball effect is not excluded: consumers who review their priorities, distributors with fewer things to sell, transporters deprived of goods to transport, social plans... "Even the government admits that it will be painful in the short term, and the question we ask ourselves now is: will it be worth it for American citizens?" Tara Sinclair continued.

According to her, customs policy, which is supposed to favor domestic industry, is currently too erratic to encourage companies to develop "made in USA" products. "The risk is that we do not manufacture more in the United States, and that we lose the ability to buy cheaply from abroad," Tara Sinclair noted.