Poland: The inauguration of nationalist President Nawrocki opens a new difficult cohabitation

Elected for a five-year term, the head of state in Poland primarily influences foreign and defence policy, but also has the right to initiate legislation and to veto texts adopted by parliament.

Mr. Nawrocki replaces the conservative Andrzej Duda as president, who has reached the end of his second term, with whom the pro-EU government was already at odds on many important issues such as respect for the rule of law and the liberalization of abortion.

The new cohabitation will swing between competition and confrontation, analysts believe, and the main players are well aware of this, two years before the next parliamentary elections. "I have no doubt that Mr. Nawrocki […] will do everything to tease us," declared Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He warned that he would not allow him to "politically demolish" his sometimes turbulent four-party coalition government.

In Poland, "I also say this to Mr. Nawrocki so that he takes note of it […] domestic and foreign policy belongs to the Council of Ministers. It is my responsibility and it will be so," Mr. Tusk insisted in an interview with the TVN television channel.

For his part, Karol Nawrocki has repeatedly stated that he considers the current government to be "the worst in the history" of democratic Poland. He has promised to be "an active president" upon his inauguration, to "stimulate" the government—which has a parliamentary majority—with proposals for texts relating to fiscal and agricultural policies.

However, "both sides should realize that engaging in intense confrontation is obviously not the way forward in a geopolitical and economic situation that could soon become even more complicated," emphasizes Piotr Trudnowski, a member of Klub Jagiellonski, a Christian-Democratic think tank.

A nationalist historian specializing in the criminal world, Karol Nawrocki "also has no experience in foreign policy," an area where he is required to cooperate with the government, points out Ewa Marciniak, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.

During the election campaign, he emphasized the importance of ties with the United States. An admirer of US President Donald Trump, Mr. Nawrocki met with him briefly at the White House shortly before the first round of voting. "This is precisely what he will build (...) his foreign policy on, at least initially," believes Ewa Marciniak.

Mr Nawrocki will face a highly experienced pro-EU duo, former European Council chief Donald Tusk and his foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski.

A difference between Mr. Nawrocki and Mr. Duda "will be visible in terms of their attitude toward Ukraine: he simply won't be as enthusiastic," Trudnowski believes. During his campaign, Mr. Nawrocki opposed the idea of the country joining NATO and criticized Kyiv for not "showing gratitude for what the Poles have done."

With his slogan "Poland first, Poles first," he targeted the million Ukrainian refugees living in the country. Last Thursday, Mr. Nawrocki spoke by telephone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "We agreed to exchange visits during which we will discuss all current issues of bilateral cooperation. We will definitely define formats for collaboration," the Ukrainian head of state wrote on the X network after the meeting.