Promigás warns that Colombia will face higher gas import costs if Sirius does not enter the market by 2030.

During the presentation of its annual report on the natural gas sector, Promigás warned that Colombia's dependence on natural gas imports already represents high costs and that if strategic projects like Sirius do not come online on schedule, the financial impact will be even greater by the end of the decade.

Promigás President Juan Manuel Rojas explained that the lack of new exploration and production in recent years has resulted in losses of between 7 and 15 billion pesos over five years. This figure corresponds to the opportunity cost of relying on imported gas to meet domestic demand.

As of June 2025, the country imported 173 million cubic feet of gas per day not intended for the thermal sector, while by 2024 that figure had reached 224 million cubic feet per day.

Rojas noted that the future of the Sirius project, operated by Ecopetrol and Petrobras, is crucial to reducing external dependence. "A delay in its entry into operation, currently scheduled for 2030, could represent additional costs between 4 and 5 billion annually," he explained.

But even with Sirius up and running, Colombia would have to import gas, as projected demand for 2030 would exceed 400 million cubic feet per day, equivalent to 40 percent of national consumption.

"If Sirius enters the market in a timely manner, we'll go through a five- or six-year import phase. With Sirius , we could triple the country's reserves and regain our status as a super-habitable country. But we can't rely solely on that project: if it doesn't come off the ground, we must turn to unconventional projects, where there's potential for up to 30 terabytes," the executive stated.

"We're going through a five- or six-year import phase, but if Sirius enters the market in 2031 or 2032, that would generate additional costs. Sirius would triple the country's reserves," he added.

The report also warns of demand losses in specific sectors; for example, in the case of industry, the reduction would be between 10 and 20 percent due to unreliable supply.

In the case of Natural Gas Vehicles (NGV), the decline in consumption would be between 15 and 25 percent, which could increase transportation costs and affect competitiveness compared to other energy sources.

Promigás estimates that these accumulated losses would exceed 20 percent in both segments if a stable supply is not guaranteed.

According to the figures presented by the company, they project a sustained increase in imports in the coming years: 299 million cubic feet per day by 2028; 365 million cubic feet per day by 2029; and 400 million cubic feet per day by 2030, equivalent to 40 percent of domestic demand.

"Beyond 2034, if national basins such as the Caribbean offshore basin, the Magdalena Valley, or the Llanero Foothills basin are not developed, dependence on imports will become structural," the executive said.

To address this scenario, the company suggested several measures, such as resuming hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, including fracking pilots and unconventional reservoirs.

"Rather than decarbonizing the economy, we are on the path to recarbonizing it," Rojas emphasized, warning that the deficit compromises business competitiveness.

Additionally, there is the need to optimize environmental licensing processes and prior consultations to reduce execution times, strengthen fiscal and tax competitiveness, and attract investment and diversify market players.

Along the same lines, he points out that the sale of gas from thermal plants to non-thermal demand, such as homes, businesses, and transportation, should be permitted.

According to Promigás, the next five years will be decisive. If the current trend continues, accumulated imports will cost the country nearly 20 trillion by 2030, impacting competitiveness, tariffs, and energy security.

"The rate increase has a direct impact on social justice and energy equity, by increasing basic costs for consumers," Rojas noted.

The company reiterated that, "without new domestic production projects and a regulatory framework that incentivizes investment, self-sufficiency in natural gas would no longer be viable for Colombia."