Mexican beer exports fall for the first time since 2020

Mexican beer exports registered a year-over-year drop of 3.5% between January and July of this year, reaching a value of $4.014 billion. This is the first negative rate for a similar period since 2020, when the decline was 18.1%, according to statistics from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the Agricultural Market Consultants Group (GCMA).

Excluding the 2020 pandemic, the closest drop in the value of these shipments was recorded in 2010, with a 1.7 percent drop. In 2008, there was another drop, of 2.3 percent.

This decline, after a record year in 2024, is attributed to a high comparative base, lower external demand, and possible adjustments in international prices.

Juan Carlos Anaya, director general of the GCMA, explained that between January and July 2025, export volume totaled 2,617.9 million liters, representing a 4.0% decrease compared to the 2,727.3 million liters exported during the same period in 2024.

One of the main reasons for the reduction is "due to the high base for 2024 and adjustments in consumption in the United States, our main market."

Anaya explained that "the peak was observed in 2021. In 2024, the highest value in dollars was reached, while 2025 shows a decline compared to the previous year's record, although at high levels compared to 2019-2022."

It's important to note that the United States accounts for more than 90% of Mexico's export volume. Other important destinations for Mexico include the Dominican Republic, Spain, Guatemala, and Peru.

Although the imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States on beer and aluminum cans could impact the industry, no negative effects have yet been found. Among the main conclusions of the analysis is the high concentration of exports, with the United States as the destination for more than 90% of the volume. While the decline is significant, the average price per liter remained virtually unchanged.

"Despite the decline, the sector identifies opportunities for diversification in Latin American countries showing growth. However, the strong dependence on a single market like the United States implies considerable vulnerability to potential regulatory or demand changes," Anaya added.

Furthermore, beer remained the main agricultural export product, followed by avocado, tequila, berries, cattle and meat, and tomatoes.

Halt to agri-food dynamism

In the seventh month of the year, the Mexican agri-food sector experienced a slowdown in its dynamism, reflected in a decline in exports and a significant trade impact on certain key products.

Cumulative agricultural exports through July 2025 reached $31.643 billion, representing a 4.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Imports, meanwhile, remained stable in value at $26.226 billion, a slight increase of 0.5% due to the fall in international prices, although they increased in volume. Despite the drop in sales, the agricultural and food balance remained in surplus at $5.418 billion, albeit a 22.4% decrease compared to the same period last year.

It's also important to note that products such as avocado and sugar showed positive performance. "The slowdown in agri-food growth is mainly explained by the negative impact on beef and tomato exports, two of the most important products in the country's agri-food trade balance," he indicated.