IP improves growth forecast for Mexico

Private sector experts have improved their forecast for Mexican gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 to 0.2%, up from a previous estimate of 0.13%, according to a monthly survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico.

The forecast for 2026 remained unchanged at 1.31%, the same as the previous estimate, according to the average of 42 domestic and international analysis and consulting groups surveyed by the central bank between July 15 and 28.

These projections come after it was revealed that Mexico's GDP grew 0.2% quarterly and 0.7% year-over-year from January to June, reflecting the slowdown projected by international and financial organizations in the country.

The experts also lowered their outlook for headline inflation for the end of 2025 to an estimate of 4.05% from a previous estimate of 4.07%.

As factors that could hinder growth in Mexico in the next six months, experts highlighted overall: governance (37%), external economic conditions (27%), and internal economic conditions (27%).

At a personal level, the problems of public insecurity (18%), foreign trade policy (16%), weakness in the domestic market (10%), the absence of structural change in Mexico (7%) and uncertainty about the internal economic situation (7 percent) stood out .

Analysts have improved their exchange rate outlook, now estimating that the Mexican currency will close 2025 at 19.71 pesos per dollar, lower than the previous projection of 20.16 pesos per US dollar they had seen in June.

By 2026, experts estimate the Mexican currency will be exchanged at 20.14 per dollar, lower than the previous month's estimate of 20.64.

CT