DBRS predicts a strong year for the banking sector due to credit growth

Credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS has published an assessment of the first-half results of Spanish banking, predicting "another solid year" for the sector, which points to another year of strong profits . The agency believes that the banks' overall profitability was supported "by solid loan volume growth and increased net fees ," due, among other factors, to the resilience of the Spanish economy.

However, DBRS notes that this resistance is part of the "complex geopolitical and uncertain context" generated by global trade tensions, with the Trump administration working to redefine global trade structures with the tariffs the president imposes on its trading partners.

Despite the current trading situation, the agency predicts that 2025 will be a solid year, "as the pressure on net interest income due to lower interest rates has been partially offset by strong credit growth ," according to María Jesús Parra and Marcos Álvarez, the report's authors. Another factor underlying DBRS's prediction is the increase in income from the broader asset-liability committee (ALCO) portfolios.

On the other hand, DBRS notes that Spanish banks "performed well in the 2025 EU-wide stress test," published by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on August 1, 2025, in which 64 banks from 17 EU and European Economic Area countries participated. This test aims to assess the performance of European banks under adverse conditions.

Overall, Spanish banks recorded a capital loss of 185 basis points in the adverse stress test scenario, which represents a significant improvement compared to the European average of 370 basis points and below the average capital loss of 259 basis points recorded in 2023. This highlights the progressive improvement in the situation of Spanish banking institutions.

According to the institution, Spanish banks achieved an aggregate net profit of €9.9 billion in the first half of 2025, representing an 18.3% year-over-year increase. However, they warn that "when linearly adjusting the temporary tax accrued by banks in the first quarter of 2024, aggregate net profits show an increase of 8.4% compared to last year."