Commercial astringency, with increasing agricultural production

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, nice to meet you.

As the Northern Hemisphere summer enters its final phase of productive influence, the climatic closure will be highly volatile.

So far, summer crops in the United States have enjoyed excellent productive weather, and this leads to highly optimistic analyses. Perhaps overly optimistic, and since this is still a work in progress, we won't indulge in prognostication.

Let's say we're headed for a fairly generous harvest, and this adds to a very robust production trend in South America. Brazil will be harvesting a record corn crop, and it's linked to a record soybean season, which connects the northern and southern hemispheres of the American continent on a large scale.

Final inventories are growing large, and we are already at the point where planting for a new campaign is being planned, with no evidence of a decrease in area.

Argentina is taking a step in the right direction, with the government permanently lowering export tariffs by a certain amount. This certainly gives the countryside a bit of a break, but in essence, it's not a formula for multiplying profitability once prices have dropped significantly, and that's the big issue for tomorrow.

The countryside is doing the job, and by combining technology and good management, crops are enjoying a run of good global production that isn't easily found. Global consumption is somewhat uncertain.

U.S. trade policy has made the current state of fluid trade more difficult, and that brings us to the next reality.

Trade today is not conducted in a logical and complementary manner; it is used as a tool of pressure.

Trade negotiations between the two largest economies on the planet, the United States and China, are in reality a prisoner exchange.

China has been completely absent from purchasing North American agricultural goods. Brazil and Argentina have been responsible for meeting these needs. The world is moving in blocs that do not communicate harmonious growth.

The White House's agenda is becoming increasingly abrasive. The negative results projected by multiple economists following the tariff exercise have not halted the growth in US corporate valuations, especially those linked to artificial intelligence, which, along with the supposed efficiency of deregulation, continues to provide momentum and new impetus to US stock markets.

The current combined situation of erratic geopolitics, explosive conflicts that remain unresolved, and a strained commercial mood leaves us condemned to relentless volatility.

Bearish agricultural markets are a challenge for buyers who, as time goes on, realize they could have done so more efficiently, and these declines are agonizing for sellers.

There comes a point where your costs feel threatened and carrying inventory becomes difficult to finance.

In Mexico, we still face formidable challenges. Agricultural production has been severely impacted by recurring droughts that only just seem to be easing. However, these droughts have reduced production, producers lack the kilos to defend themselves, and international prices are further crippling profitability.

This week will be very interesting. We'll see what the market does after the USDA's monthly supply and demand report. We'll have a meeting between the Kremlin and the White House. We don't know if Ukraine will join in, but if things go well, perhaps a truce will allow for some calm. We need a more stable world.