Analysts lower their growth forecast for this year: here are the reasons

Fedesarrollo's July Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) among analysts from various institutions showed that they lowered their expectations for economic growth this year from 2.6% to 2.5%, in line with the previous month's sample, and they also expected a slight increase in inflation.

(Read more: Fintech revenue triples, but digital credit growth slows)

In July, the 2025 economic growth forecast ranged from 2.4% to 2.6%, with 2.5% as the median response (down from 2.6% in the June edition), the EOF said.

The median for 2026 was 2.9%, ranging from 2.7% to 3.0%. Growth expectations for the second quarter of 2025 ranged from 2.1% to 2.5%, with the median response at 2.4% (remaining stable compared to the June edition). The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2025 was 2.6%.

In June, annual inflation stood at 4.82%, below analysts' forecasts of 4.91%. In the July EOF, analysts estimate inflation will reach 4.8%, in a range between 4.77% and 4.83%.

Analysts forecast inflation to close at 4.79% in December (up from 4.78% in the June edition), so market expectations remain outside the Bank of the Republic's target range (between 2% and 4%) for 2025.

(Read more: The percentage of people who expect to repay their loans in full is increasing.)

Interest rates

In June 2025, the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Republic decided to keep the monetary intervention rate unchanged at 9.25%. The next meeting to decide on the rate will be on July 31st.

For July and October, analysts expect the policy rate to be 9% and 8.5% , respectively. They also anticipate the policy rate to reach 8.5% in December 2025 (remaining stable compared to the previous month).

In the foreign exchange market, it should be noted that in June , the exchange rate closed at $4,070, with a monthly appreciation of 1.9%, reaching its maximum value for the month on June 12 ($4,191) and its minimum value on June 27 ($4,043).

The observed figure was $125 lower than the June survey's forecast ($4.195). In July, analysts surveyed by the EOF estimate the exchange rate will range between $4.002 and $4.053, with $4.025 as the median response.

By December 2025, analysts expect an exchange rate of $4.190, down from the previous month's forecast of $4.290.

(Read more: The three challenges the financial system faces in preventing money laundering)

When investing

In July, fiscal policy emerged as the most important factor for investment, chosen by 63% of analysts (up from 60.9% the previous month). Sociopolitical conditions ranked second, with 18.5% of respondents (up from 26.1% the previous month). These were followed by external factors and monetary policy, with 14.8% and 3.7% (up from 8.7% and 0%, respectively, the previous month). Security conditions declined from 4.4% to 0%, and economic growth remained at 0%.

Compared to June, portfolio managers increased their preference for six of the 12 assets analyzed in the survey, including fixed-rate Treasury bonds, local equities, fixed-rate private debt, foreign bonds, international equities, and Treasury bonds indexed to UVR. Conversely, there was a decrease in preference for IBR-indexed private debt , private equity funds, cash, commodities, DTF-indexed private debt, and CPI-indexed private debt.

The EOF surveyed analysts about the three stocks they considered most attractive among those comprising the MSCI Colcap Index. In July, analysts' favorites were the preferred stock of the Cibest Group and the common stock of the Sura Group, both selected by 41.7% of analysts. These were followed by Davivienda preferred stock, the common stock of the Cibest Group, and Grupo Energía de Bogotá.

(More news: Less insurance, more risk: Insurance industry cools due to tariffs)

HOLMAN RODRÍGUEZ MARTÍNEZ, Portfolio Journalist