Why this summer in Spain is expected to be even hotter than usual

Everyone knows summers in Spain are hot, but it’s also undeniable that some are more unbearably scorching than others. This is what Spain’s national weather agency and international climatologists are forecasting for this summer.

The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has confirmed that we can expect a summer with exceptionally high temperatures.

After the second warmest spring in recorded history since 1961, the national weather agency warns that the summer months will follow the same trend.

Predictive models leave no room for doubt and place the probability of a hotter-than-usual summer at between 50 and 70 percent across practically the entire country.

This weather forecast comes on the heels of an unprecedented 2025, which became the third warmest year on record and had a summer that tied with 2022 as the hottest ever recorded.

Current atmospheric trends appear to be continuing this thermal inertia, reinforcing a pattern where temperatures are reluctant to let up.

Given this outlook, experts are urging caution and patience in the coming weeks, as the atmosphere is expected to be saturated with high temperatures and intense heat.

Fortunately, the first official heatwave of the summer started to ease on Thursday June 25th, but temperatures are expected to remain high for the next two weeks at least.

CONFIRMED: Spain breaks June heat record

Looking further ahead, the trend becomes even more pronounced in July, August and September.

The probability of warmer-than-normal weather this summer exceeds 70 percent across most of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, dropping slightly to between 60 and 70 percent in the southwest and the Canary Islands.

At the same time, meteorologists highlight an increased uncertainty regarding rainfall, estimating a 40 to 50 percent chance of a wetter-than-usual summer across much of the country.

This anomaly will see a notable increase in afternoon thunderstorms , which will be more likely and severe in southeastern Spain and the eastern Canary Islands, where the probability rises to 50-60 percent.

Globally, the scientific community is monitoring the development of macroclimatic variables that alter weather patterns in our latitudes, adding complexity to seasonal forecasting.

Regarding this scenario, Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo explained that "El Niño is already here," adding that "models point to a very intense episode, with temperature anomalies exceeding two degrees."

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

In June 2026, the ⁠National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the ⁠World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) officially declared that El Niño has formed and is rapidly intensifying, with a 63 percent chance of developing into a historically powerful "Super El Niño" by the end of the year.

Because El Niño releases massive amounts of ocean heat into the atmosphere, 2026 is on track to be one of the top two warmest years ever recorded.

Although Rubén del Campo clarified that there is no direct, mathematical relationship between this Pacific phenomenon and the climate of the Iberian Peninsula, its immense intensity does contribute to a rise in average global temperatures and increases the likelihood of a significantly rainier autumn in certain Spanish regions.

Spain’s climate record from last spring confirms that the average temperature in mainland Spain was 14°C , a value 1.6°C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period.

Although March was within normal parameters, April broke all records, becoming the warmest in the historical series, registering averages nearly four degrees above normal.

May began cool, but a very strong heatwave starting on the 19th completely altered the monthly trend, causing thermometers to climb up to six degrees above normal in the final stretch of the month and leading to spectacular highs such as the 40.5C recorded at Seville Airport or the 39.5C at Córdoba Airport on the 31st.

As for rainfall, spring was markedly dry across almost the entire country, accumulating a mere 134 litres per square meter , equivalent to 75 percent of the usual amount and making it the fourteenth driest spring since 1961.

However, the Canary Islands were the major exception, experiencing their wettest spring on record, a milestone significantly driven by Storm Therese , which brought accumulations of up to 166 litres per square metre.

This situation is framed within a context of evident global warming where, according to AEMET (the Spanish State Meteorological Agency), "the warming trend is clear": the 12 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century, and the average annual temperature in Spain has increased by 1.75 C since 1961 .

Thermometers in Spain are consolidating an upward trend that is transforming our summers into increasingly longer, drier, and more extreme climate challenges.

Recent data collection is alarming to statisticians, as 2025 saw 25 record-breaking hot days compared to none for cold days, an alarming imbalance compared to the five of each type that would indicate a stable climate.

Over the last ten years, the ratio is devastating, with 221 record-breaking hot days in Spain compared to only seven cold ones , demonstrating that extreme heat waves have become 32 times more frequent in the country.

The sea is not immune to this massive warming; the sea surface surrounding Spain averaged an astonishing 20.1C in 2025, the second highest recorded temperature on record, breaking annual records in vast areas of the Mediterranean Sea where such temperatures had not been seen since at least 1940.

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Why this summer in Spain is expected to be even hotter than usual