There are two ways to deal with the AfD: either ban it – or let it govern

How can the AfD be brought under control? German politicians have been debating this for years. And the AfD has been growing steadily for years. It seems as if all attempts to combat the AfD have failed. While the political center despairs, the far right rejoices. Again and again.

Ever since the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution labeled the AfD as "certainly right-wing extremist," debates about banning the far-right party have flared up again. The AfD's opponents are roughly divided into two camps: some want to ban the party due to its anti-constitutional tendencies, while others want to combat it politically. The AfD must be "governed out of existence," said Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) on ZDF's "Berlin Direkt" program a few days before his swearing-in as the new Federal Minister of the Interior. At that time, the report by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, under Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD), had already been completed, and the results had been presented to the public.

In mid-2015, the AfD was still at around five percent. Since the refugee crisis, the AfD has established itself as a serious opponent in the party landscape. In the following ten years, the party's poll ratings have increased fivefold. The AfD now stands at around 25 percent in current Sunday polls and regularly leads the CDU/CSU.

The coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the resulting cost explosion also served as accelerant for the AfD. Today, inflation is still noticeable in Germans' wallets. Food prices, especially in supermarkets, are rising significantly.

Economic decline is compounded by social anxiety. The AfD was the most popular party among young men in the last federal election. In 2021, the FDP was still the strongest party among first-time voters. Whereas the Liberals then scored points with young people with the narrative of social advancement through hard work and efficiency, the AfD won in 2025 due to resignation: A lack of social and professional prospects is cited as the reason for the AfD's success among young people.

Almost like a minority government: Merz's options are limited

Friedrich Merz 's coalition will be characterized above all by a course of compromise. In his election as Chancellor, he failed in the first round of voting, failing to secure the required number of votes. Never before in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany has this happened to a candidate for Chancellor. More than a dozen unknown MPs, presumably from both coalition factions, voted against him, nearly bringing down the government at the last moment. Only in the second round did a few more MPs cast their votes for Merz, electing him the tenth Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. This process significantly damaged Merz's reputation even before his chancellorship.

The majority of the CDU/CSU government is small. The coalition has only 13 seats more than an absolute majority. Merz's cabinet will therefore have to operate almost like a minority government. Merz must convince both the left wing of the SPD and the right wing of the CDU/CSU of his policies in order to rally the majority of MPs behind him. The result will be an even stronger centrist course: a continuation of the policies that have made the AfD so strong for years.

So if the political path to getting the AfD under control fails, there are two options left: either you ban it – or you let it govern. In the first case, you not only reduce the AfD's election results, but you also destroy the entire party. Implementing this is extremely difficult. A ban procedure requires patience. The second NPD ban procedure, for example, dragged on for six years. If a ban procedure were to be carried out against the AfD, the party would have enough time to portray itself as a victim of the political system. Moreover, the hurdles before the Constitutional Court for a party ban are very high. No one can say for sure whether a ban procedure would actually be legally successful.

The second way to reduce the AfD's electoral results would be a blue-green coalition government. The AfD is the strongest party in Germany, but has no governing experience, even at the state level. In a government scenario with AfD participation, the party would have to abandon its perpetual complaining role and actively shape policy itself. The AfD's idealistic demands would face formal and practical constraints.

The hope that the AfD represents for many voters could thus lead to resignation. After the Austrian far-right FPÖ formed a coalition with the conservative ÖVP in 2017, it lost almost ten percentage points in the subsequent 2019 National Council election. In 2002, after previously participating in government, the FPÖ also suffered significant losses in the National Council election.

Given current politics, the second scenario doesn't seem unrealistic. The CDU, CSU, and AfD camp holds a stable majority in the Bundestag. CDU politicians like Jens Spahn hint at the possibility of a black-blue coalition: "There is no alternative. The question is always: Is there a better alternative?" the politician said on "Caren Miosga" at the end of February. Perhaps the AfD could actually disenchant itself with participation in government. But wouldn't such a scenario be the worst-case scenario that they have been trying to prevent for years?

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