Poland’s population may fall further than forecast as fertility rate hits record low, warns stats agency

Poland’s population could shrink even more than previously thought, according to a provisional new forecast by the state statistics agency that assumes current record-low birth rates will continue.

The experimental calculations by Statistics Poland (GUS) show that the population could fall to just 29.4 million by 2060, down from 37.4 million currently. That is 1.5 million lower than projected in GUS’s official forecast for 2060, made in 2023 and which assumed that birth rates would rise.

The 2023 forecast outlined three scenarios for demographic change, low, medium and high, with medium selected as the official projection for analytical purposes.

Under that scenario, Poland’s population was expected to fall from 37.6 million at the end of 2023 to 30.9 million in 2060.

However, in recent years, Poland’s fertility rate – the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime – has been markedly below the assumptions used in the 2023 population projection.

To address that issue, GUS prepared an experimental analysis to examine how the population might evolve in the coming decades should the low fertility trend continue.

Between 2000 and 2017, the fertility rate fluctuated between 1.22 (in 2003) and 1.45 (in 2017). In subsequent years, it declined steadily, reaching 1.1 in 2024, the lowest level on record in Poland and one of the lowest in the world.

The 2023 forecast assumed a gradual rise in fertility, from 1.39 in 2030 to 1.49 in 2060, though still well below “replacement rate” – the figure needed to ensure that the population does not decline – which is generally defined as 2.1.

In its new experimental figures, GUS also assumed longer life expectancy than in its 2023 forecast, to account for the post-pandemic rebound of the metric.

Both the official and experimental scenarios foresee a steep decline in the number of people of pre-working and working age.

The number of people of pre-working age, i.e. under 18, currently stands at 18.2% of the population. The official 2023 forecast predicts that will fall to 15.5% by 2060, but the new, experimental calculations see it dropping to just 11.9%.

The number of people of post-working age currently represents 23.3% of the population. The 2023 forecast foresees that reaching 35.6% by 2060, while the new calculations predict a figure of 37.4%.

In both the official and experimental scenarios, the number of working-age people would account for less than half the population by 2060. Under the new projection, their number would fall to around 14 million, 47.6%, down from 58.4% currently.

GUS stresses that the results of the new simulation are experimental and intended only to illustrate possible trends in population change. They should not be treated as an official forecast or used as the basis for policy decisions, the office said.

Poland’s worsening demographic situation has been a the centre of public debate for years, with various governments trying to address the issue. However, a range of state incentives – from raising child benefit to renewed funding for IVF – have failed to halt the demographic slide.

Analysts say that economic insecurity, limited access to affordable housing, and a restrictive abortion law have all contributed to the reluctance of young Poles to have children.

Immigration has partly softened the impact of population decline, with Poland recording some of the highest migration inflows in the European Union. But the state Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) cautions that it is “unrealistic” to assume migration will be high enough to counter demographic decline.

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