Way-too-early Big East basketball tiers: St. John's and UConn primed to jostle for supremacy, again
For the second time in three seasons, the Big East sent just three teams to the NCAAs. That can't happen anymore. But there's growing optimism that the middle of the Big East should be much improved heading into 2026-27 after a strong spring of free agency. The buying power in the league was up, partially because every Big East team could use its revenue-sharing allotment to make attractive pitches to transfers.
The Big Ten and SEC will always have bigger budgets, but there's less red tape when a Big East club can offer a contract that's fully from the revenue-sharing pot, instead of a mix with some true NIL that needs to come to fruition. That proved to be a swing factor in multiple recruitments this spring, helping the Big East add more talent.
How will this all shake out, though?
Summer practices throughout the Big East start in earnest this month, and the rosters are nearly set. These conference tiers provide a preferable way to contextualize each team's outlook.
Way-too-early Big Ten basketball tiers: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State primed to shine in 2026-27
Isaac Trotter
- Tier 1 - Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
- Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
- Tier 3 - Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let's be honest: they aren't serious title threats.
- Tier 4 - Bubble, even with a 76-team field: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
- Tier 5 - The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let's dive in
Tier 1: National title contenders 1. UConn2025-26 record: 34-6 overall, 17-3 in Big East play
Postseason: No. 2 seed, lost in the National Championship game.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Colben Landrew, C Oskar Giltay, G Jaye Nash, G Junior County, G Nils Machowski, F Isaiah Shaw, C Elmir Dzafic, G Solo Ball (out for the year with wrist injury)
The scoop: It's hard not to be enamored by what UConn could turn into. This backcourt is as good as it gets. Gritty point guard Silas Demary Jr. is an all-out warrior and pure winner who will be on the short-list for Big East Player of the Year. His running-mate, Braylon Mullins, is back to shred nets. He could certainly lead the Big East in triples, while mixing in all of the lunch-pail, winning stuff (like offensive rebounding like a madman) that Dan Hurley craves. Jayden Ross is expected to slide into the starting lineup to provide a fearless, athletic 3-and-D jolt.
Shooting, size, creation and defense? UConn's guard room has it all.
Hurley is going to miss Alex Karaban's winning plays and Tarris Reed's pure, raw dominance, but UConn did as well as it could in the portal to replace its frontcourt. Seton Hall transfer Najai Hines is a hoss. Even though he's not the most vertically explosive, the 6-foot-10 big man has ridiculous hand-eye coordination and will be a menacing post-up scorer and rim protector. Former five-star forward Nik Khamenia crossed enemy lines, in a way, to transfer from Duke to UConn, but his motor, cutting, spot-up shooting and positional size are a combination you just want to bet on.
Hurley has back-filled this bench with real-deal pieces, too. Physical freshman wing Colben Landrew is a lock to be a difference-making sixth man. Big combo guard Junior County is tough, smart and reliable. Stanford transfer Oskar Giltay absolutely has what it takes to be an excellent backup center.
There's a bit more variance in UConn's projection this year because there will undoubtedly be nights when the senior frontcourt of Karaban and Reed would've made three more plays than the Khamenia/Hines duo. But it's hard to envision this offense running into too many issues, and the positional size is elite at all five positions, which should keep UConn's defense very stiff.
There's a real shot that the Huskies have the best point guard in the league (Demary), the best shooter in the league (Mullins), the best shot-blocker in the league (Hines) and the best freshman in the league (Landrew).
2. St. John's2025-26 record: 30–7 overall, 18-2 in Big East play
Postseason: No. 5 seed, lost in Sweet 16.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Babacar Sane, G Lefteris Liotopoulos, C Theo Edema, F Djordije Jovanovic, F Lazar Stojkovic, G Kyle Cuffe Jr.
The scoop: Rick Pitino has built a dynamic squad, headlined by ex-EuroLeague point guard Quinn Ellis. The 23-year-old British guard has terrific positional size and posted a 2.7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in 64 games against top-shelf international competition last season.
I don't know if he will unseat Marquette's Nigel James Jr. or UConn's Silas Demary Jr. to be the best point guard in the Big East, but Ellis is good enough to be in that conversation and will unequivocally be a better point guard option than what St. John's t trotted out last year.
Creating good offense just matriculates so much easier when there's a stretch big who can pass. St. John's will also have that with big man Ruben Prey. The counting stats don't look gaudy, but he's ready for an expanded role now that Zuby Ejiofor is off to the NBA. His ability to draw shot-blockers away from the rim should be just what the doctor ordered for a group of athletic guards who want to get to the paint. Over 40% of Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou's shots came at the rim. He wants to get downhill and be a mismatch hunter. It's a similar script for Ian Jackson, who wisely chose to stay for Year 2 under Pitino. He'll slide over to his natural shooting guard position and give St. John's a jolt of shot-making and zoom-zoom transition scoring.
St. John's transition offense could be spectacular, but the Johnnies cannot reach their ceiling without Syracuse transfer Donnie Freeman putting it all together. Simplifying his game will be vital. He gives Pitino another big, athletic 4-man who can create for himself, but could really benefit from playing next to a point guard like Ellis.
This will be the most athletic team in the Big East, yet again. Yessoufou and incoming wing Babacar Sane are just brute-force monsters who you will feel at all times, but everything rides on Ellis. The NCAA has changed its protocols for international prospects … after the free agency period. It's mind-boggling for this St. John's coaching staff and adds a new layer of red tape to an already-stressful process.
If Ellis can get cleared, St. John's will be cooking with gas. Too much talent. Too much size. A real PG1.
Way-too-early ACC basketball tiers: Duke, Louisville at top of 2026-27 outlook as intriguing contenders emerge
Isaac Trotter
2025-26 record: 24-9 overall, 15-5 in Big East play
Postseason: No. 8 seed; lost in Round of 64
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Darryl Simmons II, G Jake Fiegen, F Matt Hodge (recovering from torn ACL), G Adam Oumiddoch, C Nico Onyekwere
The scoop: Villanova's got something cooking, but it needs the last piece to fall into place. Kevin Willard is a frontrunner for 7-foot-3 Italian big man Luigi Suigo, who has until June 13 deadline for international products to exit the NBA Draft. If that development comes to fruition, it will vault Villanova into a top-25 club.
With Suigo in the fold, Willard would have three guards who can play in pick-and-rolls (Crawford, Perkins and Simmons), two proven high-major forwards who can score inside and out (Royal and Evans), multiple bench shooters (Fiegen, Oumiddoch and Hodge, when healthy) and a 7-foot-3 shot-blocking center with NBA potential.
While it could be fair to have some questions about the point-of-attack defense, the rim protection would be very strong with Evans and Suigo playing together. Villanova finished 347th in block percentage last year, per KenPom. This personnel hints at a group that would rank near the top-50 nationally in rim protection.
Catching the drift?
That's more than enough talent to win with for a coach in Willard who has finished at .500 or above in conference play for 10 of the last 11 seasons.
Without Suigo? Villanova's floor drops precipitously.
Tier 3: Tournament team 4. Providence2025-26 record: 15-18 overall, 7-13 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Ryan Mela, G Ryan Sabol, C Samson Aletan, G Gavin Hightower, F Jacob Bannarbie
The scoop: New Providence coach Bryan Hodgson wants to play drive-and-kick basketball, and this portal class should be able to pull it off without a hitch. Miles Byrd? 6-foot-7 slasher who can pass. Dink Pate? 6-foot-8 slasher who can pass. Devin Vanterpool? 6-foot-4 slasher … who can pass. Much-maligned Georgetown transfer Malik Mack should also fit into this ethos because he's fast, generates paint touches and can create. I also think it was part of the calculus for targeting Northwestern transfer big man Arrinten Page. The 6-foot-11 center is very comfortable putting it on the deck in a pinch.
The raw length and athleticism that guys like Byrd, Pate and Page bring to this potential starting 5 is salivating. Maybe there's not quite enough shooting — although Ryan Sabol and his 115 3s at a 39% clip may have something to say about that — but Providence looks poised to be a factor in this league using athleticism, defense and plenty of drive-and-kick basketball to put defenses into scramble mode.
5. Marquette2025-26 record: 12-20 overall, 7-13 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Damarius Owens, F Caedin Hamilton, G Michael Phillips II, F Alex Egbuonu, G Ethan Johnston, C Joshua Clark, F Ian Miletic, G Nash Walker
The scoop: A dynamic point guard plus a good big man can make all the problems go away. Marquette may have that in stud sophomore Nigel James Jr. and incoming Louisville transfer center Sananda Fru. Marquette shot just 51% on layups a season ago, so Fru converting 77% of his rim attempts looks like a gift from the basketball Gods. Fru's screening should make James even more impossible to keep out of the paint, and conversely, James' creation will be just what Fru needs to stay busy.
As long as the James-Fru tandem is in good shape, Marquette will be poised for a significant surge in the right direction as long as the complementary pieces are just serviceable. Combo guard Adrien Stevens looks like a keeper thanks to his 3-and-D skillset. Junior forward Royce Parham should take another step forward after ranking second in Big East play with a 64% true shooting percentage. His floor spacing, cutting and offensive rebounding is so valuable as a blend piece. St. Thomas transfer Nolan Minessale won't have a problem making an impact on this team with his infusion of energy and secondary creation. Minessale can play on or off the ball and will give Marquette's offense a needed changeup of "find the mismatch, destroy the mismatch" to essentially add a second pitch to the steady barrage of high pick-and-rolls from James and Fru.
Shaka Smart's two transfer portal additions will help this team, but make no mistake, internal development will still determine whether or not Marquette makes it back to the Big Dance. The Golden Eagles need the incubator to be humming to help transform bench returners like Michael Phillips II, Caedin Hamilton, Ian Miletic, Josh Clark and Damarius Owens into Big East difference-makers.
Tier 4: The bubble 6. Creighton2025-26 record: 16-18 overall, 9-11 in Big East play
Postseason: Lost in the second round of The Crown.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Wes Enis, G Katrelle Harmon, G Hudson Greer, F Isaac Traudt, G Kayden Edwards, C Trevon Carter-Givens, C Wesly Rosa
The scoop: Creighton has a chance to be much-improved with this group. New Bluejays head coach Alan Huss has stockpiled real depth. Creighton has at least 10 guys it can mix and match with, and there's shooting and skill littered up and down this roster. Let's start with the snipers. 6-foot-10 wing Jackson McAndrew has a strap. Returning junior guard Austin Swartz is a net-shredder, and Wes Enis splashed 107 triples for South Florida last year.
Two of those guys are going to be on the floor for all 40 minutes stressing defenses with their gravity.
This frontcourt also has some real flexibility. Creighton can go with some defense-first lineups with Jasen Green sliding to the 4 and shot-blocker Oswin Erhunmwunse at the 5. The glass work (on both ends) would be noticeable and raise the floor for a Creighton offense that averaged only 9.0 second-chance points per game (13th percentile, per CBB Analytics). When you need spacing, 6-foot-10 senior Isaac Traudt (39% from 3-point range on 4.7 attempts) can check in and do his thing.
The point guard play will be the moment of truth. San Diego State transfer BJ Davis is a tough evaluation. The scoring, defense and low turnover rate is attractive, but is he a point guard? And why is the shot selection/decision-making so whacky some nights? The senior has to play like a senior in 2026-27 or Creighton will need to take a long look at expanding freshman Katrelle Harmon's role. He is the closest thing to an initiator point guard on the roster and strikes all the right notes as a high-feel connector.
Push comes to shove, I think there's enough here in the cupboard for Creighton to be a NCAA Tournament team for a coach in Huss who clearly knows what he's doing.
7. Xavier2025-26 record: 15-18 overall, 6-14 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Gabriel Pozzato, F Nikolaos Chitikoudis, G Kalek House, F Rolyns Aligbe, F Braden Appelhans, F Asher Elson
The scoop: Xavier had more buying power this spring, and Richard Pitino pounced all over the opportunity to renovate his rotation. Xavier shopped for a little bit of everything. Rugged defense who can score double-digits in Tru Washington. Deadeye shooting from Ruben Dominguez. Legitimate high-major size in the form of LSU transfer big fella Mike Nwoko, who reunites with his boy, Jovan Milicevic, to give Xavier a versatile frontcourt, featuring a 43% 3-point deadeye sniper and a hoover on the glass. Oh, and explosive wing Gabriel Pozzato is going to be healthy and ready to hang on rims.
All of those pieces are ancillary ones, though.
The success or failure of this club comes down to whether Chance Westry can be the true catalyst. The 6-foot-6, 205-pound UAB transfer has talent aplenty. He pairs a cut-up frame with slipperiness to evade defenders and the length and size to finish over and through them. He's become a jumbo point guard, who has to create advantages for Nwoko's rolls, Milicevic's pops, Dominguez's treys and Washington's slashes. If he keeps his head on straight, Westry is an All-Big East-caliber player, and Xavier will dance.
Tier 5: The basement 8. DePaul2025-26 record: 16-16 overall, 8-12 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Kruz McClure, G Kahmare Holmes, F Amsal Delalić, C Wilson Jacques, F Theo Pierre-Justin, C Fabian Flores, G Mason Lockett, F Andrew Jensen
The scoop: DePaul needed to get more talent in the building. Chris Holtmann reeled in a six-man transfer portal class, dubbed the DeHaul, that makes a lot of sense. San Diego State transfer Magoon Gwath is the big-name addition. The 7-footer has so many tools, especially defensively with his ability to turn the water off at the rim and also defend on the perimeter. You can switch with him. You can play drop coverage. You can find real variety defensively. If he can stay healthy, — easier said than done — Gwath is a tantalizing talent.
But building this thing out around him is a fascinating puzzle. There's a bunch of different ways that Holtmann could go with this thing. Tulsa transfer Ade Popoola will be a rotation lock. DePaul couldn't score last year because it couldn't shoot and everything was cramped. Popoola is a 41% 3-point sniper on real volume, and he can guard up and down the lineup at 6-foot-5. Really strong add. I also totally see the vision with Arizona State transfer Noah Meeusen. His stat line of 5.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists looks pedestrian, but the eye test is more enlightening. The shot looks pure. The positional size, creation and defense is all there. I don't think he's far away from being one of the best guards on this team, and make no mistake, DePaul's guards were terrible in pick-and-rolls last year, posting a sky-high 20% turnover rate and an effective field goal percentage of 39%. Nothing came easy. Creating easy looks is still a question for this group, but there's more size, shooting and slashing that this staff can tap into from the likes of Koree Cotton, Kruz McClure and Kahmare Holmes. DePaul also has legit depth in the frontcourt with real-deal size, and Gwath's ability to move should lead to some double-big lineups if the matchup calls for it.
The talent is up, but how these pieces coalesce will be so important. I'm still leaving the light on for senior point guard Layden Blocker to put it all together, but it's now or never, especially with the depth accrued here.
I like the idea of this team, but DePaul still feels like a piece or two short from making a real tournament push.
9. Georgetown2025-26 record: 16-18 overall, 6-14 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Elmarko Jackson, G Kayvan Mulready, F Justin Caldwell, G Gabriel Landeira, F Seal Diouf
The scoop: Ed Cooley has put a ton of his eggs in the Jaland Lowe basket. If Lowe's shoulder can get healthy, Georgetown will have one of the top-shelf point guards in this league. Lowe has real-deal wiggle and can ping pong back and forth between facilitating and three-level scoring. While it hasn't always been efficient, Lowe can absolutely be the fulcrum of this offense. He almost has to be for this Georgetown team because decision-making isn't a strength for most of this supporting cast.
It takes some squinting, but you can envision what Georgetown was trying to do in roster-building once Lowe hopped on board. Cooley added a big score-first guard in Oklahoma State transfer Vyctorius Miller, who can create his own shot, but could be much more efficient playing off the advantages that Lowe creates. Miller teams up with Kansas transfer Elmarko Jackson and returners like Kayvaun Mulready and Caleb Williams to give Cooley four good-sized guards/wings who can all be a threat from downtown and attack long closeouts. FAU transfer Josiah Parker is another Cooley-type player. He's nasty, mean and physical. He wants to go right through defenders. While Parker is a bit undersized, he can play the 4 and bust some chops.
The X-Factor is the center spot. Skilled 7-footer Julius Halaifonua was supposed to be the man here, but he got poached by sneaky-rich Oklahoma State. So Georgetown pivoted to Charleston 7-footer Chol Machot, who is 190 pounds soaking wet, but offers some appeal as a shot-blocker and vertical spacer.
Most of it was out of Cooley's control, but you'd feel way, way better about this club if stud defender KJ Lewis and Halaifonua didn't hit the portal. This roster feels thin and so dependent on Lowe to create everything. If he misses time, get ready to try and catch a falling knife.
10. Seton Hall2025-26 record: 21-12 overall, 10-10 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Kareem Thomas, G Trey Parker, G Roddie Anderson III, F Mayar Wol, C Abdulai Fanta Kabba, F Nathan Mariano, G Darien Moore
The scoop: Seton Hall couldn't keep its two most important players (Budd Clark transferred to Ole Miss, and Najai Hines transferred to big, bad UConn), so Shaheen Holloway is forced to retool … again. There will be 10 newcomers on this team, which can open up a wide range of potential outcomes.
Holloway coaches defense as well as anybody, but he'll have to be in his bag with this group. Radford transfer Del Jones is a turbo on-ball scorer who will be challenged to raise his defensive attention to detail. Loyola Marymount transfer Rodney Brown Jr. is an excellent off-ball shooter, but he's going to be asked to do more defensively than ever before. Former top-50 recruit Sim Wilcher is an interesting buy-low candidate for the Pirates, but the highest-upside player on this team might be big man Devin Williams. The 6-foot-10 center can hit 3s, block shots, run the floor and be a versatile defender.
Jones, Williams and Brown all became productive players at the mid-major ranks, but they started their careers at a high-major for a reason. Can they scale back up against better competition? And will they buy into Holloway's heat-'em-up defense? This strikes me as a bit of a mercurial group with some high-end flashes and some head-scratchers. Last year's squad had a toughness and winning intangibles that we haven't seen from numerous players on this current Seton Hall roster.
11. Butler2025-26 record: 16-16 overall, 7-13 in Big East play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jordan Ellerbee, G Christian Moore, F Samis Calderon, G Herly Brutus, G Baron Walker, F Samu Adler, C Marko Maric, C Kevin Ndzie
The scoop: New Butler coach Ronald Nored's hopes to make some serious noise in Year 1 rests on how well Serbian wing Asim Djulovic assimilates to Big East basketball. The 6-foot-9, 20-year-old has a varied skillset with a lot of clubs in the bag. He can operate in bootyball to facilitate or rise over smaller defenders for fadeaways. He can run pick-and-rolls. He's a nifty, creative driver, especially in transition. The tape hints that he will be the best player on this club, and Butler needs every bit that he can bring to the table.
Returning point guard Jalen Jackson and imposing center Drayton Jones should be serviceable hard-hat, physical lynchpins surrounding Djulovic. Jackson can ball, we just didn't get to see it much last year because of a season-ending injury during non-conference play. I'm bullish on what the Year 2 transfer jump has in store for a physical freak big like Jones, even under a new coaching staff.
Nored's NBA influence should help him to maximize this group from an X's and O's standpoint, but the proven high-major talent on this roster is certainly lacking. I wonder if pivoting to playing slow, grinding it down and leaning on size and defense is Butler's best chance to win games because creating easy looks may not come too easy for this group.
FGCU transfer Jordan Ellerbee is a midrange maestro with serious questions about size and defense. North Dakota State transfer Treyson Anderson was productive (10.4 points, 5.3 rebounds in 18.2 minutes) in the no-defense Summit League playing the 5. Will his offense be muted playing the 4 against these caliber of athletes? Kansas transfer Samis Calderon has some cool highlights, but the full picture paints a vastly different story. Maybe a change of scenery will do him some good. Is Ole Miss transfer wing Eduardo Klafke anything more than just a hustle guy? He's about to get the most tick of his career.
Butler looks like it has three legitimate Big East starting-caliber players: Djulovic, Jackson and Jones. That number has to swell when November rolls around if Butler wants to compete for an at-large bid.
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