Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Texas set to edge out Ohio State for No. 1 in preseason college football rankings
Every single week during the college football season, we here at CBS Sports take some time on Saturday night to reflect on the day's results and predict what the new AP Top 25 poll is going to look like on Sunday. The weekly tradition -- known as Tomorrow's Top 25 Today -- has been around for more than a decade, and it's a staple of our coverage that you can expect every game day during the season.
Today, we break new ground for Tomorrow's Top 25 Today as we undertake what is quite possibly a fool's errand: predicting what the preseason edition of the AP Top 25 will look like when it's released on Monday.
When we get into the season, there is plenty of science to help inform our predictions. Analysis of voting points, the disparity in rankings across AP voters' ballots and, of course, the nature of the results themselves inform how we think the poll will look when it's reset. But making similar predictions with no games played and no preseason ballots to set a base line? This is going to be more of an art than a science or, more specifically, a measurement of vibes.
Now, what we can use to help inform our predictions is the Coaches Poll, which was released last week. In last year's preseason's rankings, the AP Top 25 had the exact same top seven as the Coaches Poll, and the only obvious bias in that top seven was Ohio State getting double the amount of first-place votes as the Buckeyes checked in at No. 2 behind Georgia in both polls. Further down in the rankings, the AP voters and the coaches had the same top 21 teams overall, with no team more than one spot off from the other.
So while it's not guaranteed, we do have some science to use for our decisions.
We will have more data to use for these weekly projections once the voters show their hand for the first time in 2025. There are, after all, a few changes in the collection of 60+ voters for the AP Top 25, and each season brings new trendy teams or narratives that can influence these incredibly subjective rankings. It may be a fool's errand now, but it's incredibly informative as we get into the season to judge the shifting winds when it comes to how these teams are compared on a week-to-week basis.
So, for the first time here in 2025, here's how we think the preseason AP Top 25 will look when it's released on Monday:
1. Texas (Final 2024 AP Top 25 poll ranking — 4): There is not an expectation that the Longhorns will be a unanimous No. 1, but judging by the lack of pushback since the coaches put Texas in the top spot, it's likely there's enough support from the AP voters already. With 25 wins over the last two years, and arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country, Texas doesn't even need Arch Manning for No. 1 consideration but benefits from the buzz when it comes to beating out the competition on a ballot.
2. Ohio State (1): The battle between No. 2 and No. 3 will be particularly interesting, especially as it pits two Big Ten rivals against each other. The Buckeyes have far less experience coming back but a proven track record when it comes to reloading without much drop-off. Ultimately, the ranking floor might be higher for the reigning champs, who seem unlikely to fall much further than No. 3 on any ballot, while Penn State could see more variance in the voting.
3. Penn State (5): Our expectation is that James Franklin's team will get first-place votes, as they did in the Coaches Poll, but might have a few outlier ballots that could cost a spot or two in the preseason rankings. Penn State is the safest option in terms of knowing what to expect on the field from a personnel perspective, but the allure of the unknown with other top-five teams could end up being more attractive.
4. Georgia (6): The media loves rings, and one year after being the overwhelming preseason No. 1 team in the country, our expectation is that Kirby Smart's program lands at the top of this next tier in the top 10. This isn't a team that is likely to get a ton of first-place attention (though one voter has already tipped his hand), but there's an extremely high floor on where Georgia will fit given the talent and pedigree of the program.
5. Clemson (14): Speaking of rings, Dabo Swinney's Tigers did get two first-place votes from the coaches and return a boat load of talent that many project as valuable NFL Draft picks in the future. A runaway favorite in the ACC, Clemson's liable to land anywhere from No. 4 -- where they were in the CBS Sports 136 -- to No. 8 in the preseason AP Top 25, and our projection is tied heavily to voters favoring a quarterback they know in Cade Klubnik and a defensive upgrade with the hire of veteran coordinator Tom Allen.
6. Notre Dame (2): It's possible this ends up being low for the team that finished as the national runner-up a year ago, but uncertainty at quarterback could end up working against Notre Dame when it comes to getting the full confidence of the AP voters. The coaches had Notre Dame ahead of Clemson, but not by a wide enough margin to project that as a shared opinion across both polls. With all the turnover, the ceiling for Notre Dame's preseason ranking is No. 4, and the floor might be here just outside the top five.
7. Oregon (3): The loss of a program-record 10 NFL Draft picks is going to lead to a slight step back from where the Ducks finished the year after winning the Big Ten and finishing 13-1. Dan Lanning's recruiting success makes it irresponsible to slide Oregon too far down on a ballot, but new quarterback Dante Moore and a re-tooled offense have plenty to prove before jumping back into the top three.
8. Alabama (17): Kalen DeBoer got a heavy dose of Alabama expectations when a nine-win season was viewed as a disappointment because the Crimson Tide missed out on the College Football Playoff and proceeded to lose to Michigan in the bowl game. Now he's had a college football calendar to fine tune a roster that's more than capable of achieving the championship contention that's expected in Tuscaloosa.
9. LSU (NR): What we don't know is the timing of AP voters turning in their preseason ballots and whether any would even have the urge to adjust LSU's ranking based on Garrett Nussmeier's recent injury update. The Tigers quarterback is not expected to miss any significant time, but he is expected to lead a bounce back effort from a team that has enough talent to compete for an SEC title and a College Football Playoff spot.
10. Miami (18): Carson Beck says he's back to full health after offseason elbow surgery, and that's a huge boost for Miami's offensive outlook after losing No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Cam Ward. The Hurricanes are loaded up at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and if the defense can improve with a coordinator change, this is a step-forward season for Mario Cristobal.
11. Illinois (16): Bret Bielema is looking to build sustained success in Champaign by stacking successful seasons, and luckily the challenge to backing up 10 wins in 2024 is having Luke Altmyer back for another year in 2025. Altmyer is one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in the Big Ten, and Illinois is a team that's gotten some CFP dark hose attention this summer.
12. South Carolina (19): As soon as the NFL Draft was finished, the draft community turned its attention to the 2026 class and quickly honed in on LaNorris Sellers as potentially one of the top quarterbacks in the cycle. Sellers shined in his first year as a starter, and South Carolina's player development under Shane Beamer is giving Gamecocks fans plenty of reasons to think last year's nine-win season was more than a flash in the pan.
13. Arizona State (7): The Coaches Poll had Arizona State up at No. 11, but we're projecting some more Big Ten-SEC bias from the AP voters. This is a voting group that championed the Sun Devils last year but only after the team knocked off Kansas State and BYU in back-to-back weeks in late November.
14. Michigan (NR): There's still some lingering credit for a Wolverines program that won the Big Ten three years in a row and claimed the national championship in 2023. Last season was a stark step back from that standard, but there's too much talent on the roster -- especially at quarterback now with standout freshman Bryce Underwood -- for voters to keep Michigan unranked.
15. Florida (NR): Speaking of talent, a fully healthy Florida roster against an average FBS schedule probably sets up as a College Football Playoff team. Unfortunately, the injury issues have already started to become a talking point and the schedule is among the toughest in the country. If you are voting based on a team's ceiling, Florida should maybe closer to the top 10. If a voter is filling out their ballot based on how teams will finish, the Gators should maybe be closer to No. 20. We'll split the difference with our projection and quickly observe the voter biases as it pertains to Billy Napier's squad in 2025.
16. Ole Miss (11): The Rebels did lose a good bit of production from last year's 10-win team, but Lane Kiffin's track record of reloading the depth chart is worth respecting in a preseason poll. The Rebels have won 39 games across the last four seasons, with new transfer portal additions making a splash nearly every year. The biggest new face in 2025, however, is not from the portal but a blue-chip high school signee, and if Austin Simmons hits the ground running, Ole Miss is a real threat in the SEC.
17. SMU (12): Voters will have to respect what Rhett Lashlee accomplished with the move from the American to the ACC, going 8-0 in one league and then proceeding to go 8-0 in the new, tougher league the next season. SMU also brings back Kevin Jennings, the quarterback who was 9-2 as a starter and led the ACC in pass efficiency rating. The Mustangs' schedule is tougher than it was in 2024, but anyone ranking teams with the roster in mind has to consider this group a good option inside the top 20.
18. Tennessee (9): Losing Nico Iamaleava in the spring portal window certainly changed the narrative for Tennessee's 2025 season, but Josh Heupel and his staff have done a good job building up the whole roster, not just the quarterback position. When voters are looking for teams talented enough to win nine or ten games, the Vols are going to be a no-nonsense option coming off their CFP appearance in 2024.
19. Indiana (10): Curt Cignetti's one-year turnaround at Indiana now means the Hoosiers have everyone's attention. So, while they won't come sneaking up on anyone in the Big Ten this year, they will get more preseason buzz than any Indiana team typically sees in football. In fact, the Hoosiers have only shown up in the preseason AP Top 25 three times ever and just one other time (2021) in the last 50 years.
20. Texas Tech (NR): A wide-ranging investment operation has Texas Tech not only loaded up with talent in 2025 but making waves on the recruiting trial in the upcoming cycles. The Red Raiders have put together a roster that's worthy of Big 12 title expectations, and the buzz around Lubbock is going to draw enough attention to get a preseason AP poll ranking, something we haven't seen since 2008.
21. Texas A&M (NR): The Aggies have been ranked in the preseason edition of the AP Top 25 poll in each of the last six seasons, so at this point it's kind of a given. The trend has continued through multiple coaches thanks to the program's ability to accumulate talent, and Mike Elko again has a squad that is objectively among the 25 most talented in the country. Now comes the tough part: finishing inside the top 25, something the Aggies have not done since 2020.
22. Kansas State (NR): It may seem odd that a nine-win season was a "disappointment" for Kansas State but this is a team that started essentially as a co-favorite to win the Big 12 and then went 5-4 in conference play. Quarterback Avery Johnson leads the Wildcats' revenge tour, and the consensus expectation seems to be a step back towards conference title contention in 2025.
23. Iowa State (15): After winning 11 games for the first time in program history and finishing as the Big 12 runner-up, Iowa State is bound to get some respect to start the year from the voters. Whether the AP voters will be as convinced as the coaches is yet to be determined, as the Coaches Poll has Iowa State as the third-best Big 12 teams while FanDuel Sportsbook gives the Cyclones the seventh-best odds (+1300) to win the league.
24. Boise State (8): Now we have hit the "oh no who did I forget?" portion of the ballot for an AP voter. It's Boise State, coming off a top-10 finish in 2024, that will get pulled. The Broncos may have lost Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty but still have the most talented roster in the Mountain West and should be a candidate for double-digit wins and a CFP appearance again in 2025.
25. Oklahoma (NR): Left out of the preseason Coaches Poll for the first time in 25 years, we're projecting the Sooners will have enough votes to break through on the media side. The potential for a bounce back after picking up John Mateer and re-tooling the offensive staff has been well-documented, and us media-types are far more influenced by the prominent offseason narratives.
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