The Nationals have MLB Draft's No. 1 pick and a new GM -- is that enough to turn their rebuild around?

The Washington Nationals will soon make the top overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Whom they'll take remains unknown, even at this late hour, but what is certain is that the Nats are already in a critical period of recent franchise history. Are they going to return to relevance and contention and perhaps even win the World Series for the second time in franchise history? Or will they continue the aimless meandering they've indulged in since claiming that first belt and title in 2019?

The backdrop to all this is not only the upcoming draft and then trade deadline, but also the sweeping changes recently undertaken in Washington. Within mere days of these important junctures, club owner Mark Lerner fired long-time manager Davey Martinez and even longer-time general manager Mike Rizzo. It will be interim GM Mike DeBartolo who leads the club through this defining stretch and even runs the Nats' draft room on July 13 and 14. All of these challenges and crosscurrents combine for a series of obvious questions: where do the Nationals stand right now as an organization and what they must do to get back to the long stretch of success that culminated in the championship campaign of 2019?

A wide array of factors will go into determining whether they succeed across the next handful of years, but in broad terms they can be whittled down to four mandates that will go a long way toward defining the Nats' near-, mid-, and long-term future under a front office in flux. Let's have a look at those mandates now.

It is both theory and praxis that in a blockbuster trade the team that gets the star almost always wins that trade. However, the August 2022 whopper that sent Juan Soto from D.C. to the San Diego Padres stands as an exception to that general rule. The Nats in return got five players, and three of those players have emerged as highly valuable contributors: outfielder James Wood (an All-Star in this, his age-22 season), shortstop CJ Abrams, and left-handed starter MacKenzie Gore (also an All-Star). How valuable? That trio has combined for a WAR of 10.9 this year alone.

More specifically, each is on pace to top 5.0 WAR for the season (easily in Wood's case). Gore at age 26 is the oldest of the trio, which raises the matter of historical comparables. Here's the list of teams who have had at least three players age 26 or younger put up a WAR of 5.0 or higher in the same season. We'll limit our search to baseball's Integrated Era, which means since 1947:

As you can see, Washington's three young contributors are likely to become just the 10th such grouping since 1947. If paces hold, Wood, Abrams, and Gore will combine for a 2025 WAR of 19.8, which would make them the third-most valuable such troika over these past 78 years or so. Obviously, they're in enviable company.

Those impressive performances haven't resulted in a successful season for the Nats (more on that in a moment), but it's been more than enough to establish them as the club's long-term core. Speaking of which, it'll soon be time for whoever the Nats' next permanent lead decision-maker is to ensure this core remains together for years to come. It's not an urgent matter, but we'll note just the same that Gore has just two more full seasons of team control left before he's eligible for free agency. It's time to talk extension with the still-young ace. Abrams is eligible for free agency the very next year (after the 2028 season), so he should be next in the queue. Since Washington isn't particularly close to having a contention-worthy core around Wood-Abrams-Gore, the club needs to ensure they're still around for many seasons to come.

This, obviously, has bearing on the above, especially when it comes to not putting a worthy roster around Wood-Abrams-Gore. Consider, if you will, how the team's Opening Day payrolls have tracked since that championship season of 2019 (data via Baseball Prospectus/Cot's Contracts):

*The 2020 season was abbreviated to 60 regular-season games, and player salaries were pro-rated.

That's a clear pattern of disinvestment, and it reflects poorly on Lerner. The team's 2025 Opening Day payroll represents a hefty 42.7% decrease from those peak 2019 levels, and that's not even accounting for the more than half-decade of inflation. With the MASN/Orioles dispute resolved and a higher level of revenue certainty realized -- and with the club no longer for sale, at least for now -- Lerner should be doing much more.

It's hurt them in 2025. Remember those 11 WAR for which Wood, Abrams, and Gore have combined? The other 39 players to appear for the Nats this season have combined a WAR of … 0.8. There's failing to build around your core, and then there's marooning it on a leaking dinghy in the middle of a nor'easter. The National League East is a rough circuit, and that's especially if you're a team with a less-than-committed owner. Yes, Lerner and the Nats are still paying Stephen Strasburg, who's effectively retired, but that's no excuse for this level of payroll neglect. They need to be willing to complement this core with a premium free agent or two and by taking on salary in trade. Otherwise, the Nats might wind up wasting the foundation of young talent they got in the Soto trade.

Do the Nats have a "failure to launch" problem with their recent top picks? While it's far too soon to write off any of them, there are some concerning trends in place. Consider:

• Third baseman Brady House (No. 11 overall pick, 2021) was called up in mid-June, but it's been a halting journey for him with inconsistent production at the higher rungs of the minors. He's got real power potential and fared much better in his second exposure to the Triple-A level, but his tendency to chase and make poor swing decisions raises concerns. Thus far House has struggled in Washington, but the sample size is tiny.
• The shine is off outfielder Elijah Green (No. 5 overall, 2022), at least until further notice. He hasn't hit at all above the complex-league level, and he had such grave swing-and-miss issues this season that the Nats in May demoted him all the way back down to rookie ball. Suffice it to say, that's not what you want from a high pick in his fourth professional season.
• Outfielder Dylan Crews (No. 2 overall, 2023) was in the mix for top pick in his class, but ultimately that honor quite defensibly went to his LSU teammate Paul Skenes. Crews has an exceptionally high ceiling still, but he's thus far failed to transition successfully to the highest level of baseball. In 305 MLB plate appearances spread across two seasons, Crews has batted just .206/.275/.354, which comes to an OPS+ of 79. This season, his numbers have been marginally worse than that. He's still just 23, and the history of baseball is peppered with great hitters who struggled badly early in their careers. After Crews gets back from the oblique strain that's sidelined him since May 20, the hope is that he'll begin to progress toward his expected level of value. His doing so is vital to the Nats' long-term future.
• Shortstop Seaver King (No. 10 overall, 2024) isn't even through his first full professional season, so it's premature to fret too much. Still, he's a college, major-conference draftee (Wake Forest) who batted just .263/.307/.380 in the High-A Sally League. After a perhaps hasty promotion to Double-A in early June, he's hit .235/.287/.311 with just seven unintentional walks in 144 plate appearances across 32 games. A ramp-up in production very soon would be most welcome.

That's worrisome. It's possible a new approach to player development with some modernization and perhaps staff turnover is needed. Whenever new front-office leadership is in place on a permanent basis, that should be a priority evaluation. The Nats can't risk having this many high selections wash out.

2025 MLB Mock Draft: New Nationals GM gets the No. 1 pick, college catcher sneaks into top 5

It's odd timing, to say the least -- firing the long-tenured GM so close to the draft and the trade deadline. As such, it adds to the already substantial levels of uncertainty surrounding how the club will use that top overall pick. This will be the third time the Nationals have picked No. 1 overall, and they nailed it the first two times. In 2009, they chose Strasburg as the top selection, and the very next year they made Bryce Harper the first name off the board. Those two, though, were completely obvious choices, and they would have gone No. 1 no matter which team had those selections. The 2025 draft offers no such certainties, and as such the choice demands more deliberation and due diligence on the part of the selecting team. Whom the Nationals tab will say much about that player, about the team's perhaps hastily assembled approach to this draft, and about the club's vision for their future. CBS Sports' most recent mock draft has Kade Anderson going No. 1 overall to Washington. Will DeBartolo make the same choice?

Suffice it to say, some of the above will not be easily achieved, but some of it -- those involving Lerner and his will to win baseball games -- is a matter of choice. The foundation is there, and another premium talent is incoming. Time certainly isn't running out in Washington, but the excuses are as this critical juncture in franchise history continues to unfold.