Ready to get hurt again: Five college football teams Tom Fornelli can't quit going into 2026
There's no shortage of people who will tell you that learning from your mistakes is one of the most valuable things a person can do. What's mentioned less frequently is that most people don't learn from their mistakes. They do something, it goes wrong and instead of undergoing any kind of self-evaluation to see how they contributed to their misfortune, they choose to ascribe blame to some unseen, mystical force.
I am like most people. At least, when it comes to falling in love with college football teams, anyway.
Every summer, when the season is so close I can almost smell the grilled meats of tailgates across the country in the air, I begin my deep dive into teams to prepare myself for the season. And every summer, while doing this, I talk myself into some teams that, more often than not, I shouldn't.
Sometimes I'm right. Most times I'm not. Regardless, I can't keep myself from finding some little thing that makes me believe this team is going to exceed everybody's expectations considerably. This summer is no different. As I've studied practice reports, read gushing quotes from press conferences, and parsed through depth charts, there are five teams I'm smitten with.
These are the teams that I don't just think will go over their preseason win totals, but fly past them. Or they won't. They might fail miserably, but perhaps by sharing them publicly and putting myself in a position to be mocked forever, believing in them, I'll be smarter next summer.
Nah, I'll just blame the weather or some podcaster or something.
College football's most experienced offenses: Ranking all 138 FBS units ahead of the 2026 season
Cody Nagel
How high am I on the Florida Gators? Well, current win totals have the Gators pegged at 7.5 right now, but when I look at this team, I don't just see a squad that can get to 8-4. I see a team that could reach the College Football Playoff.
This is a talented team that made what I consider a massive upgrade to its coaching staff over the offseason. Jon Sumrall wasn't the first choice of many Gators fans, but he was a good one. There is no single factor we can point to that guarantees success for a coach when they change jobs, but how they perform in conference play at their previous stops is about as reliable an indicator as you can find. It makes sense, whether you're coaching at Florida or Florida A&M, in conference play, you are facing teams on a level playing field, so coaching can be a difference-maker.
Well, Sumrall is 28-4 in conference play across two different leagues (the Sun Belt and the American). Sumrall has been a head coach for four seasons and won three conference titles. His worst season saw his Tulane team lose a conference championship game. That second-place team then saw its quarterback, Darian Mensah, leave for Duke, where he won a conference title (and he's now at Miami). For most Group of Six programs, losing a quarterback of that caliber is a massive blow. Tulane responded by putting together an even better season, winning the American and reaching the College Football Playoff.
Sumrall also hired one of my favorite offensive coordinators, Buster Faulkner. Faulkner's offenses at Georgia Tech weren't just fun to watch; they were effective. That was a big reason why the Yellow Jackets went 16-8 in ACC play. Faulkner also brings Aaron Philo from Tech to play QB for the Gators. Philo doesn't have a ton of experience, but he's talented and is as familiar with the offense as Faulkner is with him.
Finally, all things considered, Florida's schedule isn't as bad as it could be. Frankly, when considering most SEC schedules, I'd argue it's one of the more manageable slates in the league. I fully expect the Gators to get off to a great start in the Sumrall era and be in the playoff conversation into November.
Kansas StateAvery Johnson, I cannot quit you. And now that Kansas State has brought Prodigal Son Collin Klein home to run the program, I don't have to! Seriously, Johnson is the style of quarterback that I'm forever inclined to believe in at the college level because his overall athleticism can be a cheat code.
Plus, while Johnson and the Wildcats may not have lived up to the hype when he first came to Manhattan, he's been better than the overall narrative around him would suggest. That doesn't mean there isn't room to improve, but that's what's so exciting about the Klein hire. After seeing what Klein was able to do with Marcel Reed at Texas A&M, how can you not be bullish on the possibilities with Johnson? They're similar players with similar profiles, but Johnson won't be facing an SEC schedule every week.
Oh, and speaking of schedules, have you seen Kansas State's? The Wildcats will play nine Big 12 opponents this season, and none of them are named Texas Tech, BYU or Utah. While there's plenty of mystery to how Utah will look in a post-Whittingham era, there's no question that Tech and BYU have emerged as the conference's top dogs, so if you can avoid both of them, that's a tremendous advantage.
The Wildcats have a win total of 8.5, so they're expected to finish in the top half of the league, but I see the potential for an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game, which means the CFP isn't off the table.
Michigan StateOf my five teams, this is the one with the lowest expectations. Michigan State is currently pegged for 3.5 wins. What if I tell you I think this team gets to a bowl in 2026?
Admittedly, I did not wait until this summer to buy into the Spartans. I was in the minute they hired Pat Fitzgerald. The results on the field and the scandal off it towards the end of Fitzgerald's tenure seemed to wipe from everybody's memory what Fitz accomplished with that program over the prior 15 seasons. Skeptics will tell you those results were due to Fitzgerald not understanding how to play the game in the current NIL and transfer portal landscape.
I counter by saying Fitzgerald knows how to play that game just fine. It's Northwestern that's on unequal footing both from the NIL perspective and because it can't use the transfer portal the same way many other schools can, due to its academic requirements. Well, those problems don't exist at Michigan State. The Spartans have a 2026 transfer class of 29 players, many of whom will be immediate contributors.
They're also no longer in a place where they feel pressured to rely on the wrong quarterback, like Jonathan Smith was with Aidan Chiles. Chiles was benched last season, but it came too late. Still, Alessio Milivojevic didn't light the world on fire in Chiles' place, but he played well. He certainly played better than Chiles, and I'm high on his potential. I also believe the defense should improve over what we saw last year. I was a fan of Joe Rossi's defenses at Minnesota, and while the final numbers weren't impressive, the Spartans' defense was routinely put in bad spots. The average starting field position of the 31.5-yard line ranked 118th in the nation and 63rd among Power Four defenses.
I harbor no delusion that Michigan State will pull off huge upsets or jump to the top half of the Big Ten this season, but I see a lot of games on the schedule against teams I have a few more questions about than I do the Spartans. Sparty's four-year bowl drought comes to an end this season.
I can't believe I'm doing this, but I'm buying the USC Trojans. I've seen so many people burned by this in the past that I should be smart enough to take a wait-and-see approach, but I can't. Yes, the Trojans lost a few big names, like stud receiver Makai Lemon, but they have a ton coming back from a team that finished 9-4 last year and was competitive in its three losses to Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon.
Those returning starters include QB Jayden Maiava, who improved as the season went along, and now gets a second season playing under Lincoln Riley. Given Riley's track record with quarterbacks, we should all be pretty optimistic about what we'll get from Maiava. The Trojans also see most of their rushing production return, as well as 2,937 snaps between five offensive linemen.
Of course, when it comes to USC, the offense is seldom the area of concern. There's reason to be optimistic about the defense, though. First of all, the Trojans' defense allowed only 22.4 points per game in conference play. That's not elite, but it was good enough to finish seventh in the Big Ten. Furthermore, the unit improved as the season went along, allowing only 21.4 points per game in the final five, and 42 points from Oregon did most of that damage.
The schedule is not easy. The Trojans have to play Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana (the three Big Ten teams that made the playoffs last year), but at least they don't have to play Notre Dame, too. If Maiava takes a leap and the defense moves up into the top five of the Big Ten, this is a serious playoff contender.
College football coaches with the most to lose in 2026: Can Lincoln Riley finally elevate USC?
Brad Crawford
This is mostly about James Franklin. Penn State is a great place to be the football coach, and Franklin was a great coach for Penn State, but getting out of Penn State might be the best thing that has ever happened to Franklin. He took that program over when it was going through a difficult time and got it out of trouble.
Now, Franklin is taking on a program similar to Penn State's, in a situation similar to what Penn State was in (on the field) when he got there. Virginia Tech has not finished a season ranked since 2017. A program that was once one of the best teams in the ACC under Frank Beamer has gone a middling 30-36 in the league over the last eight seasons. Franklin's job is to get the Hokies back to fighting at the top of the ACC and in the playoff conversation.
Unlike at Penn State, though, he doesn't have to fight Ohio State and Michigan (and now Oregon and USC) to get there. Climbing the ranks of the ACC should be far easier, and I don't think it'll take the Hokies very long to find themselves on a solid footing.
Perhaps competing for the ACC title in Year 1 is a bridge too far, but that win total of 6.5 looks awfully pessimistic to my eyes. I mean, when you look at Virginia Tech's schedule, outside of a road game against Miami late in the year, what game do you look at and think the Hokies have no chance? I don't see one.
cbssports
