Oregon football 2025: Win total, CFP outlook, and why Dan Lanning can take Ducks to next level

Oregon enters the 2025 season brimming with optimism as the Ducks chase their long-awaited first national championship. Expert Matt Prehm from Ducks Territory joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to break down what success looks like for Oregon this fall.

What are the stakes for Oregon in 2025?

Back-to-back top-five recruiting classes means Oregon is built to reload after losing 10 players to the 2025 NFL Draft in April. Dan Lanning has set the bar high in Eugene, with 35 wins in three years, including a Big Ten title and undefeated regular season record in 2025. With another loaded roster and talent depth, the Ducks appear poised to make a strong College Football Playoff push as they chase the program's elusive first national championship.

"I think they're a playoff team," Prehm said. "I would be shocked if they reached the point of No. 1 in the country in the middle of the season or late in the year, but I think everything's on the table. They've recruited as well as they've ever done at Oregon. They have NFL players on both sides of the football. They have first-round draft picks on both sides of the football. This is as talented of a group as possible."

Offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Will Stein looks to keep his streak of developing elite talent intact with projected starting quarterback Dante Moore stepping in after Oregon produced consecutive Heisman Trophy finalists at the position.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

With its top two receivers from the 2024 season now in the NFL, Oregon is searching for new weapons on the outside — and someone will need to step up as a go-to target for Dante Moore. While the Ducks have historically been cautious about leaning on true freshmen, five-star signee Dakorien Moore — the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2025 recruiting class — might be too dynamic to keep off the field.

"Ultimate playmaker," Prehm said. "Every single peer player, whether it's a defensive prospect or a fellow offensive skill guy has just gushed about his playmaking ability. Coaches have said, 'Hey, it's all about just can he pick up the playbook? Can he process things quick enough? Because from a physical skill set standpoint he's there already to make plays.' … If Evan Stewart doesn't elevate himself and become the No. 1 guy — and I think there's some questions there if he can do that — Dakorien is sitting there waiting in the wings."

Win total outlook

The projected win total for Oregon is 10.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That number aligns with the recent consistency in Eugene as the Ducks have hit double-digit wins in every full season since 2019 (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

The toughest hurdle on the 2025 schedule is a late-September showdown at Penn State, but Oregon catches a break by avoiding both Michigan and Ohio State. Road trips to Iowa and Washington in November could present challenges, though the Ducks are slated to play five of the nine Big Ten teams with the weakest odds to win the conference title, according to FanDuel. The over 10.5 certainly seems likely here.

"I also think 12-0 might happen again," Prehm said. "They don't play Ohio State. They don't play Michigan. I honestly think the schedule sets up where if Dante Moore is as good as we think he is, the backend on defense connects maybe sooner than later, right? And they can have the ball bounce their way a few times at Penn State and kind of sneak away with an early season win, 12-0 is also possible."

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