LSU football 2025: Win total, CFP outlook as Brian Kelly enters pivotal Year 4 with Tigers

Three years into his LSU tenure, Brian Kelly has yet to reach the College Football Playoff, let alone compete for the national championships he sought to bring to Baton Rouge when he joined the program as a splashy hire. After an offseason of immaculate talent acquisition, 2025 could be the year that finally changes. And for Kelly's sake, it might need to be. Geaux247's Bryce Koon joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for the Tigers this fall.

What are the stakes for LSU in 2025?

This is a pivotal year for Brian Kelly in his LSU tenure and coaching career at large. The Tigers invested heavily into this roster to give him all the talent he needs to break through and finally reach the playoff. Anything short of SEC title contention and meaningful games in late December would be a letdown for one of the top coaches in the sport, who fell short of expectations in his first three seasons at the helm.

"The way they have spent in the transfer portal, the way they have gone all-in with getting Garrett Nussmeier to come back for one final season, this is a make-or-break year for Brian Kelly and LSU," Koon said. "I don't know in terms of job security where it truly sits, but just in terms of what we have on the roster, what we like in terms of our great young depth and the veterans we've brought in, this is a year where it's kind of playoff or bust."

Would LSU move on from Kelly if he falls short of a playoff bid? Maybe, or maybe not. He fell into the "pressure is mounting" category in this offseason's CBS Sports Hot Seat rankings, placing him just shy of a dire situation. But even if the Tigers keep him around after another underwhelming season, his once-glistening legacy would become even more tarnished.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

With an 18-man transfer class that ranks No. 1 nationally, LSU will largely rely on newcomers to elevate the roster and produce its elusive step forward. One particular incoming playmaker that could aid in a surge is former Florida edge rusher Jack Pyburn, who flashed much-needed run-stopping ability this spring and could be the weapon LSU needs to shore up a defensive front that was gashed on the ground far too often last season.

"The early returns of Jack Pyburn is that he brings a little bit of that swagger," said Koon. "In terms of his production level, we'll see what he becomes as a pass rusher. But I think at the very base, he's going to help the run game. You saw that in terms of the drills they would run. Tons of outside zone runs, and Pyburn's doing a great job of setting the edge."

Pyburn was a breakout player last year when he shattered his personal best with 60 tackles. But he could break out even further this year if he elevates his game as a quarterback disruptor. The former Gators defender has just one career sack despite 29 games of experience, and the Tigers need to get better in that department. Any lift he provides in pressuring the pocket would not only elevate his personal stock but also help LSU construct a more well-rounded defense.

Win total outlook

FanDuel Sportsbook set the LSU win total at 8.5 with juice on the over. A nine-win season might be enough to get the Tigers over the hump and into the playoff bracket, but in order to stay off the bubble and comfortably punch a ticket to the postseason, they likely need to outperform expectations and hit the double-digit mark. That will not be easy, especially with a non-conference schedule that opens with a marquee clash against Clemson.

"I posed this question to [the Geaux247 message board], and they said 10-plus wins and an SEC title appearance was the floor that they would take," Koon said. "If they can get to nine wins and have a strong résumé to maybe be one of these first SEC teams that a lot of people naturally talk about being in the playoff conversation, that actually have a real shot at it … I think that you have to make the playoff under Brian Kelly in Year 4."

The Clemson battle will be a tone-setter. Can Kelly expel his season-opener demons and finally defeat a power conference opponent in Week 1? If so, the margin for error in SEC play will grow larger. And that is important given the rigors of a slate that includes a bevy of fellow playoff hopefuls like Alabama, Florida and multiple others.

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