Is Arch Manning worth the hype? Evaluating Texas QB as an NFL Draft prospect before highly anticipated season

The hype cycle for athletes is not a new phenomenon. It's human nature to gravitate towards the new and shiny, and the gratification that comes with being "first" on someone or something is universal. What is new with the ubiquity of social media is the age and relative stardom bequeathed to those dubbed "the next big thing." Twenty-seven years ago when ESPN The Magazine debuted with its "NEXT" cover highlighting the athletes poised to become the future faces of their respective sports, it featured a 25-year-old Kordell Stewart already three years into his NFL career. It's archaic and laughable looking back considering Stewart's talents would have been dissected and debated ad nauseam on every talk show and podcast for a half decade already if his career unfolded today. Timelines have changed. No athlete in the football world is more indicative of that than Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Nephew of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks Eli and Peyton Manning, Arch is already the biggest name in the college football world -- so much so that it may surprise you to learn he's thrown only 90 passes and made all of two starts in his collegiate career.

With the polarization that comes from overexposure in today's world, I cut through the highlight reel and dove into the tape to learn whether the hype is warranted or if this is another Bronny James situation.

When you flip on Arch's tape, the first thing that jumps out is the standard Manning frame. He's every bit of the 6-feet-4, 216 pounds he's listed at with the body habitus to easily work into the 230-pound range if he so chooses. Box ticked. The next thing you'll notice is a decidedly non-standard Manning throwing motion ... in a good way. Arch has a noticeably more compact motion than both Eli and Peyton employed over their careers. You rarely see Arch let the ball travel any deeper than you see below.

I say that's a good thing is because it makes Arch's release both quicker and less available to oncoming rushers. The kicker is that even with that tight motion, Arch can still touch any area of the football field he needs to. Just compare his nearly 60-yard heave from the pocket against Louisiana-Monroe last season to former No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence's longest throw of his collegiate career.

No one is confusing his arm for Josh Allen's or Justin Herbert's, but it's capable of drive throws 30-plus yards downfield when it needs to. That's more than enough to operate a full NFL playbook.

Arch pairs that arm strength with displays of anticipation and timing well beyond his years. In the rep below against Mississippi State, the ball is more than halfway to Matthew Golden before he even comes to a stop and presents a target to his quarterback.

You can watch quarterbacks currently in the league getting paid large sums of money that aren't willing to let throws loose with that level of anticipation. It's an art form that Peyton mastered as well as anyone else in NFL history, and it will serve Arch well as his career develops.

What Arch Manning stiff-arming the 2026 NFL Draft would mean for Texas, college football

Arch obviously has a lot of Manning hallmarks to his game, but the biggest thing that stands out from his uncles is his legs. The younger Manning can scoot. It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given Arch's father, Cooper, was a top wide receiver recruit before his career was cut short with spinal stenosis. Arch glides away from defensive linemen and linebackers in the open field like he could have done the same.

While he's not a dynamic phone booth athlete like Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, his legs still bring a ton of value to the table. Think more about how Daniel Jones or Drake Maye can make defenses pay for forgetting about them in the run-option game or exploiting busted rush lanes. Arch isn't afraid to do either with three runs of 20-plus yards last season in limited time. That's more than Peyton and Eli combined for in their entire NFL careers. It's a skill that will only serve to expand the playbook opposing defenses have to prepare for at the next level.

The biggest area for concern without a shadow of a doubt right now is how Arch will operate under pressure. That's not uncommon with inexperienced quarterbacks, as the threat of getting your bell rung is hard to simulate in practice.

PFF had Manning charted with 26 pressured dropbacks last fall, and he turned as many of those dropbacks into sacks as he did completions (seven). There are times when he runs into sacks or tries to do too much with defenders bearing down on him. It's the most important part of his game to monitor in 2025 as Texas lost both their starting tackles from last season.

Again, it should be repeated that this is 101 dropbacks last season. Trey Lance was the most inexperienced first-round quarterback in NFL history and had almost four times as many reps by comparison. There isn't much to go on, and his final collegiate form will undoubtedly look nothing near what we saw last fall.

The question isn't whether Arch will be seen as a top prospect -- his tools and pedigree almost assure a top-100 selection -- it's when will he declare? We've seen in recent years how much experience matters when translating to the league. His uncles both exhausted their college eligibility with Peyton staying four seasons and Eli staying five.

While the timeline has changed for stardom in the sports world, it's also changed for the draft with the advent of name, image and likeness (NIL). We are seeing more athletes opt for more collegiate experience knowing they'll still be paid handsomely for it.

Even if Arch does ultimately live up to the hype in his first season as the full-time starter in Austin, it's likely he'll opt to be the crown jewel of the 2027 quarterback class.

Arch Manning will (likely) be a 2027 NFL Draft entry. So who might be bad enough to get him?

QB prospects at Arch's level rarely have great one-to-one comps. I rode with Lawrence in a good part because of the on-field similarities. Both have plus arms with great straight-line speed that they only break out when they need it. But there's also the off-field hype aspect that's similar. Lawrence was the last true hype cycle quarterback that delivered. Lofty expectations were put on him in college and he delivered. It remains to be seen whether Arch will do the same.

Strengths

• Quick release with zip to every level of the field
• Speed to outrun defensive ends and linebackers
• Play speed and anticipation is already at an NFL level

Weaknesses

• Limited experience with 108 career dropbacks
• Hasn't faced a real defense yet
• Tries to do too much at times. Won't give up on dead plays

"While it's already known that Manning will be back at Texas next season instead of heading to the NFL, he's already very much on the radar for NFL scouts as a future top draft prospect. Even though there's still a level of unknown with him with this being his first year as the Longhorns' starting QB, he flashed enough ability in spot duty last season that, according to scouts, he would've had a chance to be the top overall pick in next year's draft." -- Matt Zenitz (national NFL/national college football senior reporter for CBS Sports)

High school: Isidore Newman (New Orleans)Class: 2023Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (100)

• National: 1 | QB: 1 | Louisiana: 1 | All-time: 20

High school notes: MaxPreps National Freshman of the Year (2019), MaxPreps second-team sophomore All-American, four-time all-state, broke school records for passing yards and passing touchdowns held by uncles Eli (7,268) and Peyton (93), respectively.

Check out Arch Manning's full 247Sports profile, here.