Iowa State football 2025: Win total, Big 12 outlook and how the Cyclones can reload under Matt Campbell
Although Iowa State fell short in the Big 12 Championship Game for the second time in five years, coach Matt Campbell still guided the Cyclones to a historic milestone in 2024 with the program's first-ever double-digit win season. After several key contributors departed from that team, Iowa State faces a critical challenge -- reloading for another run at the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff. Expert Alec Busse of Cyclone Alert joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for Iowa State this fall.
Iowa State has bounced back from early setbacks before under Campbell -- just look at the 2020 season, when the Cyclones lost to Louisiana in the opener but rallied to reach the Big 12 title game. However, the tone for the 2025 campaign may be set by a pivotal Week 0 matchup against Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland.
"The opener against K-State in Dublin - that is going to be a really key game for each team," Busse said. "If you lose, everyone always gets down when you lose your first game of the year - you can't go undefeated anymore, this feels so much worse. But then on top of it, if it's a rivalry game and it's a conference game, that's really tough for just the vibes and everything you have to overcome."
A win would give Iowa State an early edge in what's expected to be a crowded Big 12 title race and provide a critical boost in its push for a CFP berth. A loss, meanwhile, could be a major setback. Only one team in the playoff era -- 2024 Clemson -- has made the field after losing its season opener.
Breakout player everybody needs to knowWith 1,000-yard receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel now catching passes for the Houston Texans, Iowa State must identify new playmakers on the outside. The Cyclones are counting on East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell to develop into a trusted target for quarterback Rocco Becht and continue that vertical threat to the passing game.
"That was a really big transfer portal recruiting win for them," Busse said. "They got him over Florida and numerous other schools. Someone who was kind of like the Deion Sanders castoffs after Coach Prime got hired in Boulder. But [Sowell's] kind of resurfaced now in the Big 12. I think he's a good addition for them."
Sowell began his college career at Colorado in 2022 before transferring to ECU following Deion Sanders' arrival in Boulder. Despite playing in a struggling Pirates offense, he totaled 81 catches for 1,300 yards and four touchdowns over two seasons. Sowell is poised to make an instant impact at Iowa State in 2025.
Win total outlookThe projected win total for Iowa State is 7.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with juice on the under. That may seem a bit low for a team coming off a Big 12 title game appearance, but the Cyclones are +1300 to win the conference in 2025 -- eighth-best among Big 12 teams.
"From an on-paper perspective, when I look at this roster, I'm not nearly as high on it as I was a year ago," said Busse, who correctly predicted Iowa State to make the Big 12 Championship Game last season. "I think it's a team that wins like seven to nine games, depending on how a few of those wonky Big 12 close games go."
The path back to the Big 12 title game won't be easy. Iowa State's 2025 schedule includes four teams with better conference title odds in Arizona State, BYU, Kansas State and TCU. It's a big step up last season, when the Cyclones faced just three league opponents that finished above .500 in Big 12 play.
As Iowa State prepares to build off a historic 2024 season, all eyes will be on how Matt Campbell's squad responds to the challenge ahead in 2025.
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