How Nico Iamaleava's transfer from Tennessee to UCLA flips teams' odds to win SEC, Big Ten championships

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel made a bold move when he decided to move on from quarterback Nico Iamaleava after an NIL dispute. Already, the impact of that move is starting to be felt.

Tennessee, which at +700 was ranked as the fourth-most likely team to win the SEC championship, has since dropped to +1500 following the departure of Iamaleava, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That pushes the Volunteers down to seventh on the oddsboard behind Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU.

The swing in projected fortunes underscores the risk of moving on from a highly-regarded quarterback, especially for a program that played in the College Football Playoff last season. Heupel is 37-15 in four seasons and was applauded for his statement that no one is bigger than the team after Iamaleava sat out a practice.

If wins stop coming, though, the called bluff may not pay off. Tennessee's projected win total dropped from 9.5 to 8.5, which could mark the difference between a trip to the CFP in 2025.

Of course, Tennessee's pain looks to be UCLA's gain now that the Bruins have added Iamaleava. UCLA's odds to win the Big Ten stood at +50000 prior to his signing; the Bruins have since risen to +18000, 12th out of 18 teams in the league. While few will sprinkle much money on UCLA to win the conference, their potential certainly increases with a certified five-star quarterback at the helm.

Iamaleava threw for 2,616 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions during an inconsistent first year starting with the Volunteers. Tennessee ranked No. 12 in the SEC in passing offense at only 221.2 yards per game. However, UT hit 10 wins for the second time in three seasons, reaching the mark for the first time in 20 years.

Texas (+250), Georgia (+370) and Alabama (+500) lead the top odds leaders for the SEC championship with four months until kickoff. While Tennessee might be undervalued, LSU (+1200) behind Ole Miss (+900) is the most head-scratching selection on the board.

The Tigers bring back Garrett Nussmeier, perhaps the top returning quarterback in America. The No. 2 national transfer class promises to fill holes, especially in the defensive backfield. Running back Caden Durham also ranks among the SEC's best heading into a pivotal 2025 season. LSU is a serious SEC and national championship contender in Brian Kelly's fourth season.