Fade Texas? Four College Football Playoff bets to consider

The 2024 college football season gave us our first real taste of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, and with it came the beauty of chaos. Six new programs made their playoff debuts -- Penn State, Tennessee, Indiana, Arizona State, SMU, and Boise State -- proof that with more seats at the table, the barrier to entry is shifting. It's no longer just about perfection or prestige; it's about peaking at the right time and surviving the grind.

Here are four College Football Playoff bets to consider ahead of the season.

If there was ever a year to sprinkle on the Hawkeyes to make the playoff, this might be it. Their schedule is tough on paper, but it's spaced out in a way that could play to their strengths. Penn State and Oregon come to Kinnick, and the early road stretch at Iowa State, Rutgers and Wisconsin are all winnable if South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski hits the ground running. The Hawkeyes avoid Michigan and Ohio State, and if Gronowski lives up to his FCS hero status, this team might finally have enough juice on offense to complement Phil Parker's always-stingy defense. Iowa's special teams' unit is elite, their offensive line is seasoned and Ferentz's teams rarely beat themselves. This is not a team built to win with style points, but if they continue to grind out wins and hit November with momentum, this Black and Gold playoff ticket could cash. And let's be honest, if Iowa does sneak into the Playoff, it won't be on the back of 12 punts and a prayer. This year's offense might actually have some teeth.

This bet offers real value in a Big 12 conference that's wide open and lacking a true heavyweight. The Wildcats have everything you could want in a playoff sleeper: an ascending quarterback in Avery Johnson, a top-tier defensive front and, in Chris Klieman, a coach that as won at least eight games every year since 2020. They open the season Week 0 in Dublin against Iowa State, which will be a good barometer right out of the gate, but after that? The schedule sets up beautifully getting UCF, TCU, Colorado and Texas Tech at home. The road trips are manageable, and outside of a short-week game at Arizona, there's no real back-to-back landmines. The margin is there. If Avery levels up and the secondary holds steady, K-State has a clear path to 11-1 and a Big 12 title.

The Gamecocks were red hot to close out last season, rattling off six straight regular-season wins. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers might be the best dual threat in the SEC, if not in the country. Now he's got a full season of confidence under his belt, paired with a creative new OC in Mike Shula. The early part of the schedule offers a real chance to build momentum. If the Gamecocks are 5-0 heading into the LSU game in Week 7, that's when things get spicy. Sure, the back half of the schedule looks brutal with Oklahoma, Alabama and road trips to Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson. But if Sellers takes over games the way he did last November, the offense could mask some of the defensive attrition. Shane Beamer's teams have a knack for peaking late and if Sellers takes another leap, the Gamecocks should ruffle a few feathers and end up in the CFP conversation.

It pains me to say this, but Texas missing the playoff at +220 is absolutely in play and, honestly, kind of enticing. Arch Manning might be the future for this team, but his first road start comes at Ohio State, where the Buckeyes have gone 27-3 since 2021. Later, Texas travels to Georgia and Florida. That's already three potential landmines. Add in tricky road trips against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and the Longhorns' schedule starts to feel less like a march to the CFP and more like a minefield. Even the finale against Texas A&M feels like a coin flip. With a new offensive line, young pass-catchers, and a defense patching holes in the middle, the value lies in the doubt. If +220 doesn't pop enough, there are plenty of Saturdays to back the underdog against Texas. The Longhorns have talent but their path to the playoff is anything but smooth. Fading the hype might just be the smarter play.