College football rankings: What a key continuity metric says about who can win the 2025 national title
Ohio State busted a decade of precedent last season when it won the national title with both a new starting quarterback and offensive coordinator. Prior to the Buckeyes' defeat of Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship, the sport's previous 10 champions had each finished in the top 13 of the prior year's CFP rankings and returned at least three of the following four:
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Defensive coordinator
- Quarterback who started at least four games in the prior year.
The 10-year run covered the entire four-team era of the CFP before a series of forces collided to allow Ohio State to break the "continuity factor." First, playoff expansion gave the Buckeyes a life raft. They wouldn't even have made a four-team CFP last season after suffering a second loss to rival Michigan in the regular season finale.
However, with a field of 12, Ohio State still made the bracket with relative ease. Second, the plug-and-play nature of the portal has allowed high-caliber programs to eschew quarterback development in favor of high-dollar transfers. Instead of turning to an unproven internal option, the Buckeyes landed Kansas State transfer Will Howard, who brought significant starting experience.
But if Ohio State -- currently at +600 to win the CFP according to FanDuel Sportsbook -- is going to repeat as national champion in the 2025 season, it will have to bust continuity norms in an even more significant way. While head coach Ryan Day returns, the Buckeyes have another new quarterback and two new coordinators, leaving them with just one of four returners in the key roles listed above.
Against that lens, here's the breakdown of where the top teams from last season's final CFP rankings stand on the continuity spectrum:
Tier 1Continuity in 3 of the 4 critical spots and the elite talent required to be considered a serious title contender
Penn StateFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 4 | CBS post-spring ranking: 3
Penn State lost defensive coordinator Tom Allen to Clemson but made one of the only possible hires that could have constituted an upgrade by landing Jim Knowles from Ohio State. Quarterback Drew Allar will be in his second season working with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who helped the Nittany Lions make strides in 2024. With receiver help on the way via the portal, two stud running backs returning and a solid core of linemen in the fold, Penn State should be even better offensively in 2025.
HC: James FranklinOC: Andy KotelnickiDC: Jim KnowlesQB: Drew Allar
TexasFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 3 | CBS post-spring ranking: 2
Arch Manning falls short of the "started four games last season" threshold, but he did start twice when Quinn Ewers was injured, and he's been in the program since January 2023. The only continuity concerns here are with the offensive line and receivers as Texas comes off consecutive CFP semifinal appearances with all the pieces in place for another run.
HC: Steve Sarkisian OC: Kyle FloodDC: Pete KwiatkowskiQB: Arch Manning
GeorgiaFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 2 | CBS post-spring ranking: 5
New starting quarterback Gunner Stockton has been in the program since January 2022 and started two postseason games last year following an injury to Carson Beck. So there won't be much concern over his command for veteran coordinator Mike Bobo's offense. But the onus will be on the defense to buckle down after ranking 30th nationally in yards allowed per game last season at 330. That would be a good season by most program's standards, but it's not at Georgia.
HC: Kirby SmartOC: Mike BoboDC: Glenn SchumannQB: Gunner Stockton
OregonFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 1 | CBS post-spring ranking: 6
Continuity concerns with Oregon aren't about the staff. Rather, it's with a roster that ranks 109th nationally in returning production, per ESPN. Only UCLA, Ole Miss and Purdue rank lower among Power Four programs. The quarterback, Dante Moore, is unproven after apprenticing behind Dillon Gabriel last season. The transfer haul is ranked No. 5 nationally but features just 11 players, meaning the Ducks will be leaning heavily on internal development with the parade of prized prospects who have signed under Dan Lanning.
HC: Dan ManningOC: Will SteinDC: Tosh LupoiQB: Dante Moore
Continuity in 2 of the 4 critical spots and the elite talent required to be considered a serious title contender
AlabamaFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 11 | CBS post-spring ranking: 9
Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is new to Alabama, but he's not new to Kalen DeBoer. This is the fifth school where the offensive gurus have worked together, and the results have been incredible in the past. Grubb's addition should allow DeBoer to focus more on the big-picture responsibilities that come with being the face of the Crimson Tide. Given how productive DeBoer and Grubb were together at Fresno State and Washington, Grubb might as well be considered a returner.
HC: Kalen DeBoerOC: Ryan GrubbDC: Kane WommackQB: Ty Simpson
Notre DameFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 5 | CBS post-spring ranking: 7
Defensive coordinator Al Golden's departure for the Bengals left head coach Marcus Freeman with a big hole to fill, and he settled on Chris Ash, the former Rutgers head coach and Texas defensive coordinator. Ash was most recently an NFL position coach and scout and will be tasked with leading what may be the nation's most talented overall defense. The Fighting Irish are turning to redshirt freshman CJ Carr at quarterback, but he'll have an elite offensive line and running back room to help him along.
HC: Marcus FreemanOC: Mike DenbrockDC: Chris AshQB: CJ Carr
MiamiFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 13 | CBS post-spring ranking: 11
After one-year rental quarterback Cam Ward led Miami to the doorstep of the CFP last season, the Hurricanes are going back to the well in 2025 with Georgia transfer Carson Beck. The Hurricanes also fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and are turning to Minnesota's Corey Heatherman, who guided a unit that ranked No. 5 nationally in total defense last season. Beck is not an upgrade over Ward, but he's solid, and Heatherman will have plenty of talent at his disposal.
HC: Mario CristobalOC: Shannon DawsonDC: Corey HethermanQB: Carson Beck
Tier 3Continuity in 1 of the 4 critical spots and the elite talent required to be considered a serious title contender
Ohio StateFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 6 | CBS post-spring ranking: 1
Brian Hartline held the offensive coordinator title in 2023, but head coach Ryan Day called the plays. Then, Day hired Chip Kelly to be OC in 2024 as Day filled more of a CEO role. Kelly has returned to the NFL, and now Hartline is finally expected to be the primary play-caller. He's been deeply involved with the offense for the entirety of Day's tenure, which should ease the transition. But he'll be guiding the ship with an inexperienced quarterback in Julian Sayin. New defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will be working in college football for the first time since he was a GA at Syracuse in the early 2000s.
HC: Ryan Day OC: Brian Hartline*DC: Matt PatriciaQB: Julian Sayin
Continuity in all 4 critical spots but less talent than teams in tiers 1-3
Arizona StateFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 12 | CBS post-spring ranking: 17
Arizona State's continuity extends beyond the staff and deep into a roster that burst onto the scene with a surprise Big 12 title run last season. The Sun Devils lose superstar running back Cam Skattebo but still have a solid backfield and a dark-horse Heisman contender at quarterback in Sam Leavitt. The Big 12 is a parity-filled conference, and nothing is guaranteed. But a lack of continuity is the least of ASU's worries in 2025.
HC: Kenny DillinghamOC: Marcus ArroyoDC: Brian WardQB: Sam Leavitt
SMUFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 10 | CBS post-spring ranking: 24
SMU's transition from the AAC to ACC couldn't have been smoother, as it ran through a schedule not featuring Clemson, Miami or Syracuse. All are on the docket in 2025, but the Mustangs should be stout once again because of their continuity in high-level positions. The defensive personnel will be portal-heavy and workhorse back Brashard Smith is gone. But head coach Rhett Lashlee routinely produces excellent offenses, and it should be no different in 2025 with returning quarterback Kevin Jennings in the fold.
HC: Rhett LashleeOC: Casey WoodsDC: Scott SymonsQB: Kevin Jennings
Tier 5Continuity in 3 of 4 critical spots but less talent than teams in tiers 1-3
TennesseeFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 7 | CBS post-spring ranking: 20
2024 was a banner year for Tennessee's defense, and it appears the Vols are banking on another big season from that unit after quarterback Nico Iamaleava's departure for UCLA. Tennessee also did little to address its deficiencies at receiver, even amid the NFL departure of star running back Dylan Sampson. But riding DC Tim Banks' unit worked out masterfully last year, and he's back with enough talent to field another stingy group.
HC: Josh HeupelOC: Joey HalzleDC: Tim BanksQB: Joey Aguilar
IndianaFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 8 | CBS post-spring ranking: NR
An encore CFP appearance will be a tall task against what should be a more difficult schedule. But the Hoosiers replaced quarterback Kurtis Rourke with an intriguing talent from Cal in Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,000 yards last season. Curt Cignetti showed last season that he can flat out coach, and his retention of both coordinators along with a key nucleus of talent will make the Hoosiers dangerous again.
HC: Curt CignettiOC: Mike ShanahanDC: Bryant HainesQB: Fernando Mendoza
Boise StateFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 9 | CBS post-spring ranking: NR
Nate Potter is going from co-offensive coordinator to solo OC in 2025 following Dirk Koetter's retirement. So there is continuity even amid that change as Boise State turns the page from the legendary career of running back Ashton Jeanty. That's a massive loss, but the Broncos have the overall continuity on their roster and within their staff to remain a CFP contender.
HC: Spencer DanielsonOC: Nate Potter*DC: Erik ChinanderQB: Maddux Madsen
Every national champion of the CFP era finished the prior season at No. 13 or better in the CFP rankings. These three teams finished Nos. 14-16 last season, but each have continuity in 3 of the 4 critical spots
ClemsonFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 16 | CBS post-spring ranking: 4
Clemson's hiring of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley paid dividends in 2024, his second season with the program. He and quarterback Cade Klubnik are now working together for a third straight season and have plenty of returning talent at receiver and along the line. The 2024 ACC champions upgraded at defensive coordinator by hiring Tom Allen after a down season on that side by program standards.
HC: Dabo SwinneyOC: Garrett RileyDC: Tom AllenQB: Cade Klubnik
Ole MissFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 14 | CBS post-spring ranking: NR
The personnel is transfer-heavy for "portal king" Lane Kiffin's squad. But the anchors of the staff remain in place for a team that fell just short of a CFP appearance. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Austin Simmons has never started a game, but he played a critical role in the program's breakthrough win over Georgia last season while briefly filling in for the injured Jaxson Dart.
HC: Lane KiffinOC: Charlie Weis Jr.DC: Pete GoldingQB: Austin Simmons
South CarolinaFinal 2024 CFP Ranking: 15 | CBS post-spring ranking: 22
Mike Shula has resurfaced as South Carolina's offensive coordinator after serving in a supporting role last season. It will be the well-traveled former NFL assistant's most significant collegiate gig since he was Alabama's head coach from 2003-06. Shula has a rising star quarterback to work with in LaNorris Sellers. The defense has some holes to fill following a solid 2024, but excellent coaching continuity on that side will help.
HC: Shane BeamerOC: Mike ShulaDC: Clayton WhiteQB: LaNorris Sellers
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