Bracketology: Duke projects as No. 1 overall seed in 2026 NCAA Tournament on college basketball's opening day

College basketball season is here, and our first CBS Sports Bracketology simulation of the 2025-26 campaign paints an interesting picture of what to expect in the months ahead. Topping the charts as the No. 1 overall seed in the initial model is Duke.

The Blue Devils are No. 6 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll but are coming off an impressive exhibition slate that showcased the abilities of five-star freshman forward Cam Boozer. Joining the Blue Devils on the projected No. 1 seed line are Purdue, Michigan and St. John's.

Regining national champion Florida landed as a projected No. 2 seed, while UConn projects as the highest No. 3 seed, according to the model. As for conferences, the SEC is projected to lead the way again. Here is the breakdown of projected number of teams from each high-major conference, according to the model's results:

SEC (13): Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn, Missouri, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, TexasBig Ten (12): Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan State, USC, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, NebraskaBig 12 (8): BYU, Houston, Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma StateACC (5): Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, VirginiaBig East (4): St. John's, UConn, Creighton, Villanova

At long last, the new season is here, bringing new hope for fan bases around the country. Everyone is undefeated on opening day, and the work begins now for those wishing to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Here is the full seeding breakdown of the debut CBS Sports Bracketology simulation.

Bracketology top seeds On the bubble Last four in

Texas A&MNebraskaOklahoma StateTexas

First four out

Ole MissWashingtonTCUCincinnati

Bracketology takeawaysDiverse opinions of Ole Miss

The range of opinions on Ole Miss is vast as the Rebels retool following last season's Sweet 16 breakthrough. That range is reflected in our CBS Sports preseason SEC expert picks, where the predictions on where Ole Miss will finish in the league run the gamut from sixth to 14th. It's also reflected in the varying opinions of the sport's top analytics repositories. KenPom.com ranks the Rebels at No. 24 and firmly in at-large territory entering the season. However, evanmiya.com slots the Rebels at No. 52, and barttorvik.com places them at 45th. The CBS model ultimately forecasts that the Rebels will finish just on the wrong side of the bubble.

Cowboy breakthrough

One of the biggest surprises of the Bracketology model's first run is that it projects Oklahoma State to make the field. The Cowboys demonstrated a positive trajectory with a hastily assembled roster under first-year coach Steve Lutz last season. But going from 17-18 with a couple of NIT victories to the Big Dance would be a significant jump. There are reasons to believe, however, and one of them is named Anthony Roy. The well-traveled guard averaged 25.7 points -- and did so quite efficiently -- in 11 games at Green Bay last season. He is one of several highly productive transfers that Lutz will try and mold into a team that can take Oklahoma State back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021.

High-major dominance

The Mountain West has been a multi-bid league in the past seven NCAA Tournaments, and the WCC has been a multi-bid league in six consecutive NCAA Tournaments. But our initial model is down on the chances of those leagues producing at-large teams. In fact, every at-large bid in our opening day simulation went to a high-major program. While that might seem outlandish on the surface, it wasn't too far off from reality last season, when just four teams from outside high-major leagues received at-large bids.