Bowl projections: Oregon rises in College Football Playoff bracket as Florida, Clemson exit field
Week 2 of the 2025 college football season featured a couple results that have shaken things up in the College Football Playoff picture. Oregon left its mark that could spell doom for Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, while South Florida has blossomed into an unexpected noisemaker out of the Group of Five.
The Ducks flexed their firepower and made a major move in our updated College Football Playoff projection coming out of Week 2, along with Alex Golesh's Bulls, who are making an appearance for the first time following the program's biggest win of all time at Florida.
South Florida salted away the Gators' hopes over the final 2:25, capping an 87-yard, eight-play drive with Nico Grammatica's 20-yard field goal as time expired. The Bulls have moved ahead of Tulane as our next projected Group of Five champion and take on Miami next week in search of another signature win.
Florida, meanwhile, moved out of our 12-team projection along with Clemson, who trailed Troy at home by 16 points in the first half before recovering to avoid Week 2's second colossal upset inside the top 15. This was a team Dabo Swinney thought could potentially go 16-0 this season, relaying last month that it was a "race" to do so in the expanded playoff era after his 2018 team was the first to hoist the 15-0 banner.
Let's look ahead at how things may shake out after Week 2 of the 2025 college football season:
College Football Playoff Quarterfinals| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Rose BowlPasadena, Calif. | (1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Sugar BowlNew Orleans, La. | (2) LSU vs. (7/10) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Orange BowlMiami, Fla. | (3) Miami vs. (6/11) Winner |
Dec. 31 | Cotton BowlArlington, Texas | (4) Penn State vs. (5/12) Winner |
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec. 19 or 20 | Sanford StadiumAthens, Ga. | (5) Georgia vs. (12) South Florida | (4) Penn State |
Dec. 19 or 20 | Jones AT&T StadiumLubbock, Tx. | (8) Texas Tech vs. (9) Notre Dame | (1) Ohio State |
Dec. 19 or 20 | Autzen StadiumEugene, Ore. | (6) Oregon vs. (11) South Carolina | (3) Miami |
Dec. 19 or 20 | Memorial StadiumAustin, Tx. | (7) Texas vs. (10) Florida State | (2) LSU |
Don't see your team? Check out Brad Crawford's complete bowl projections.
Projected College Football Playoff field breakdownNo. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion): No team in college football has been more impressive on defense over their first two games. Ohio State smashed Grambling 70-0 a week after holding then top-ranked Texas scoreless for 3.5 quarters. Safety Caleb Downs looks like one of the best players in the country and linebacker Arvell Reese is a rising superstar. This unit is humming under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, but more tests are coming. Ohio State has another breather next week against Ohio before an open date prior to beginning Big Ten play at Washington on Sept. 27.
No. 2 LSU (SEC champion): Brian Kelly challenged his team this week to battle a faceless opponent on Saturday night against Louisiana Tech coming off the momentum-building win at Clemson. This team is our early projected SEC champion and should get a top seed as a result of being battle-tested a few months from now.
No. 3 Miami (ACC champion): Get in and get out injury-free. The mission was simple for the Hurricanes against Bethune-Cookman, and Miami had no issues leaving a mark against inferior competition. This squad looks the part at the line of scrimmage after pounding Notre Dame at the point of attack to open the season. Mario Cristobal knows he has a team worthy of elite merit if they can keep it up against USF and Florida over the next two games before going to Florida State the first weekend in October.
No. 4 Penn State: College football teams don't have the luxury of preseason games, but the Nittany Lions might as well be playing them with this early slate. The second of three consecutive home contests as a favorite of 40 or more points, Penn State went through the motions against FIU, finally pulling away from the Panthers in the second half of a 34-0 victory. Kaytron Allen rushed for 144 yards and Drew Allar tossed two touchdown passes as the Nittany Lions essentially simulated their second straight game.
No. 5 Georgia: The Bulldogs played with their food longer than Kirby Smart would've liked in a game that was delayed nearly two hours due to weather, but the physical brand of football we're accustomed to seeing was still on display against Austin Peay. Nate Frazier's 1-yard plunge with 5:39 to play capped a 17-play, 99-yard drive that spanned almost 9 minutes. Georgia's showdown next week at Tennessee in a battle of unbeatens is one to watch.
No. 6 Oregon: Dan Lanning is thankful to lead a program with vast resources and NIL advantages, a couple of factors that showed up throughout the Ducks' 66-point pasting of Oklahoma State. It was pick-your-poison for the Cowboys' defense in the first half after Noah Whittington raced 59 yards for a touchdown on Oregon's first play and five-star freshman Dakorien Moore scored on a 65-yard reception on the next possession. The Ducks have had no issue squashing teams when there's a noticeable talent advantage under Lanning.
No. 7 Texas: What a difference a week made -- and a downgrade in opponent quality -- for the Longhorns. After struggling to find explosives against Ohio State, Arch Manning tossed four first-half touchdowns and added a fifth on a rushing score to lead a rout of San Jose State. There were some throws he would like to have back, but Manning took a positive step with the SEC opener at Florida looming in a few weeks.
No. 8 Notre Dame: This open date was critical for the Fighting Irish. Coming off the loss at Miami in Week 1, Notre Dame had an opportunity to assess what went wrong in the trenches ahead of its home opener against Texas A&M. It's going to be difficult to make playoff reservations for this team if they start 0-2 against the two toughest games on the schedule. USC and Navy are the only remaining opponents who could be ranked, but that's no guarantee. In this spot, Notre Dame finishes 11-1. However, if the Fighting Irish lose twice, the selection committee may have a tough decision to make.
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): Utah and Iowa State are gaining on our preseason pick to win the Big 12, but we're sticking with the Red Raiders until they show a reason for disbelief or quarterback Behren Morton's knee situation lingers. The conference opener against the Utes on the road later this month determines the early frontrunner in the Big 12 and is Texas Tech's first real test. Defending league champion Arizona State showed some moxie Saturday night with its win at Mississippi State.
No. 10 Florida State: Hypothetically speaking, what would the playoff selection committee do with the Seminoles if they finish runner-up to Miami in the ACC with a lone regular-season loss to either the Hurricanes in a couple of weeks or Florida in the finale? It's not if Florida State would be deserving of a bid, but where is the primary question. Scoring 77 points against East Texas A&M ahead of an open week after bashing Alabama's head in has to feel good for Mike Norvell.
No. 11 South Carolina: Seeking their first playoff appearance in program history, Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks could possibly head to Baton Rouge at 5-0 and inside the top 10 on Oct. 11 if they're able to handle business in upcoming games with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Kentucky. LaNorris Sellers is a cyborg at quarterback and would put himself at the top of the Heisman picture if he overpowers Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers. South Carolina's not looking ahead, however.
No. 12 South Florida (Group of Five champion): There's quite a story unfolding this season down in Tampa, Florida, where a third-year coach coming off consecutive 7-6 finishes has a team that looks double-digit win capable in the early going. South Florida and Tulane are the favorites in the American, but it's the Bulls who have quite the resume in September following wins over nationally ranked Boise State and Florida. No other team in college football has a pair of ranked victories. And guess what? The Bulls travel to Miami next week.
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