2026 NFL Draft: Miami's Carson Beck Surges to Top of QB Prospects List

Halloween may be just around the corner, but when it comes to college football, there is no point in sugarcoating things: This celebrated class of quarterbacks has struggled to live up to expectations thus far.

Penn State QB Drew Allar's season-ending leg injury is the latest bruise to an already battered positional group. And Oklahoma’s John Mateer, after undergoing surgery on his right hand on Sept. 24, looked far from ready in his quick return to action against rival Texas, throwing three interceptions. Those injuries — and the inconsistencies of other highly-touted signal-callers — have become the dominant storyline for this year’s quarterback class.

Scouts can’t rely on narratives, however. There is always talent to be found, and other talented QBs are emerging from the shadows.

Miami’s Carson Beck has surged to the top of the class, joining LSU's Garrett Nussmeier as the only two quarterbacks worthy of first-round consideration, at this point.

But just behind them in the early-round mix are a handful of gifted underclassmen, including Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Oregon’s Dante Moore and yes, Texas’ Arch Manning, each of whom has flashed the traits that could entice NFL teams to gamble early should these QBs opt to give up their remaining eligibility.

If the draft were held this weekend, this is how I envision the quarterbacks would come off the board.

RELATED: Rob Rang's previous quarterback prospect ranking

In a year filled with quarterbacks struggling to meet expectations, Beck is proving the polar opposite, resurrecting his NFL Draft stock for a surging Miami program now ranked second in the country.

Beck is completing 73.4% of his passes with a stellar 11-3 touchdown to interception ratio, including a four-score showing in Miami’s win over rival Florida State in Tallahassee. It was the kind of performance that will have Heisman Trophy voters and NFL scouts taking notice.

In an era of QB-friendly passing attacks that boost efficiency (and, frankly, inflate statistics), Beck is being asked to make NFL-caliber throws, requiring precision, touch and velocity. He flashed this skill-set previously as the starter at Georgia, of course, but now he's playing with more poise and confidence.

To be clear, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Beck isn’t the same dynamic escape artist and playground playmaker as Cam Ward, who emerged as the No. 1 overall pick out of Miami a year ago. But the resiliency and accuracy Beck is demonstrating are exactly what NFL teams are looking for in a potential franchise quarterback.

If Beck’s stellar play continues, next spring’s NFL draft might very well begin just as last year’s did — with a Miami quarterback going No. 1 overall.

With interceptions in four of LSU’s six games thus far — including two at home last week against South Carolina — Nussmeier personifies this year’s struggling quarterback class.

A year ago, he threw for 29 touchdowns in 13 games. Nearly halfway through this season, he’s tossed just nine touchdowns. And while his completion percentage has jumped from 64.2 to 66.2%, his average depth of target has dropped. Plus, he’s still guilty of some troubling throws into coverage that, frankly, shouldn’t come from a fifth-year senior and the son of an NFL offensive coordinator.

Unlike many of the other quarterbacks on this list, Nussmeier lacks the eye-popping traits to distract from his middling statistics. At 6-foot-1 , 205, he’s smaller than scouts would prefer and doesn’t offer the same velocity of his peers, raising doubts about his true upside. He’s a gamer, however, whose ability to make off-script plays could remind scouts of Baker Mayfield or Brock Purdy.

From a statistical standpoint, Simpson deserved to be listed among the top quarterbacks earlier in the season. Even in Alabama's season-opening loss to Florida State, he was effective, starting the season throwing for 11 touchdowns (without a single interception) in the Tide's first four games. He flashed in the first half of Alabama's road win at Georgia as well, but was unable to guide the Tide to any points after halftime, raising enough concern to justify leaving the first-year starter off the list in our last update.

Simpson was brilliant in Alabama's road win at Missouri, however, completing 74.2% of his passes and three more scores. And that was in a hostile environment and despite Simpson taking four sacks for the second consecutive game.

Alabama's offensive line lacks the barrage of future first-round picks we've seen come from Tuscaloosa in recent years. Simpson has been sacked 12 times in Alabama's six games, and his receivers have 11 dropped balls, according to PFF.

Despite his teammates' struggles, Simpson's talent is beginning to shine through. Like the aforementioned Nussmeier, Simpson has a real knack for climbing the pocket, dipping and ducking his way through traffic and still keeping his eyes downfield. Kalen DeBoer's offense calls for a lot of intermediate and deep passes, and Simpson has shown very good accuracy on these NFL-caliber throws, demonstrating a real knack for layering the ball between levels of the defense.

With only six starts to his credit, Simpson has a long way to go before convincing scouts that he's a future starting NFL quarterback. But there is no denying that his stellar play this season has their attention. Should his breakout season continue, Simpson could easily jump into the first-round conversation.

Like Simpson, Moore warrants being listed because his traits are simply undeniable. A legitimate dual-threat dynamo, Moore has flashed the same sort of big-play potential that helped Jayden Daniels win the Heisman Trophy two years ago, earning him all sorts of NFL Draft buzz. But also like Simpson — and a significant departure from Daniels, who started for four years — Moore is still unproven, having started just 11 games at the college level.

His inexperience showed in last week’s home loss to Indiana. The pressure in Moore’s face no doubt contributed to his two interceptions in the 30-20 loss, but a more seasoned quarterback would have felt the pocket collapsing and escaped.

Moore boasts as much upside as any quarterback in the country, but he’s more of a Day 2 gamble than the first-round lock some are forecasting.

Give Mendoza and the Hoosiers credit for their victory over Moore and the Ducks on Saturday. However, his fourth-quarter pick-six raised as many questions about his readiness for the pro game as the rest of his performance helped his cause.

Mendoza possesses the size, athleticism, arm strength and intangibles NFL teams are looking for in a future starting quarterback, but his success is coming out of a relatively simple college offense that doesn’t directly translate to the NFL game. Put simply, Mendoza is being asked to read half the field on most of his snaps. He faces a steep learning curve into the NFL, potentially capping his draft stock.

It was Sellers’ running ability that stood out the most in South Carolina’s 20-10 loss in Baton Rouge to Nussmeier and LSU. At 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, Sellers is a load and a remarkably agile one at that. But to warrant an early selection in the NFL Draft, Sellers will have to deliver more in the passing game than he showed against the Tigers, who confused him and allowed just a 55.6% completion rate with zero touchdowns and an ugly interception.

It is hard not to be enamored with Sellers’ upside. Besides his imposing frame and athleticism, he boasts arguably the strongest arm in the class. And make no mistake, Sellers can throw with touch and accuracy as well.

But for all of Sellers’ traits, he still looked sushi raw in a "prove it" opportunity against LSU. With two more years of potential college eligibility, Sellers looks like a quarterback whose smartest decision might be to return and refine his game.

Allar’s season-ending left leg injury and head coach James Franklin’s subsequent firing have turned Penn State from a one-time playoff hopeful into the most disappointing 3-3 team in college football.

Allar could petition the NCAA for a medical hardship, but as a fourth-year senior blessed with prototypical size, a rocket arm and a career 61-to-13 touchdown to interception ratio, the expectation is that he’ll be in the NFL next year.

Allar’s recovery from the catastrophic injury will obviously play a critical role in where he is ultimately drafted. But in a class of relative unknowns, Allar, even injured, is one of the more proven commodities, offering the downfield accuracy and intangibles to project as a future NFL starter.

Already written off by some as a 2026 NFL prospect, Manning took another strong step forward in his development Saturday, completing 21 of 26 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions in a surprisingly resounding 23-6 victory over rival and previously No. 6 ranked Oklahoma.

To be clear, Manning was far from dominant, but given all the negative press he’s received following his disappointing start to the season, he has "quietly" jumped to a 12-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with five more scores coming via his legs.

A much more gifted athlete than either of his famous NFL uncles, Manning still has plenty of work to do in terms of reading coverages post-snap and delivering consistently accurate passes, but any list of draft-eligible quarterbacks is lacking if it doesn't include his name. The talent is obvious. He just needs a bit more time to develop it.

It is easy to get excited about Mateer’s well-built frame, gutty running and knack for the big play, but the precision passing just hasn’t been there for much of the season. A year after having 29 touchdowns against just seven interceptions at Washington State, Mateer has six touchdowns and six picks after his Saturday stinker against Texas. He’ll improve as he fully heals from the hand injury, but the first-round talk was always hyperbole.

At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, and with the kind of easy athleticism that has some scouts wondering if he could make it at wide receiver in the NFL, Green is among the most exciting all-around talents in this year’s draft class. The peaks and valleys of his decision-making and accuracy, however, will likely cap his stock as a mid-round roll of the dice.

It is the nature of the position for quarterbacks to receive too much praise when their team wins and more than their share of criticism when the losses pile up. Klubnik certainly has borne the brunt of that this season for the 3-3 Tigers.

He’s actually completing a career-high 65.3% of his passes, with a couple of his five interceptions bouncing off the hands of his intended targets. When he has missed, however, Klubnik has missed badly, raising doubts about his ability to be more than a backup in the NFL.

Rob Rang is an NFL Draft analyst for FOX Sports. He has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 25 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others. He also works as a scout with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Follow him on X @RobRang.

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