2026 Memorial Tournament odds, picks: Surprising predictions by golf model that's nailed 17 majors

The penultimate Signature Event of the PGA Tour schedule starts on Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET with the 2026 Memorial Tournament. Scottie Scheffler is the two-time defending winner and leads a star-studded field that includes Ludvig Aberg, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas. Muirfield Village Golf Club in Columbus, Ohio, hosts the Memorial Tournament 2026, which will serve as the final tune-up to the U.S. Open for many. In his attempt to become the first golfer to three-peat a single event since Steve Stricker in 2011, Scheffler is the +310 favorite.

Rory McIlroy will tee off for the first time since a seventh-place finish at the PGA Championship, and he's at +1200 in the 2026 Memorial Tournament odds. Other contenders include Aberg (+1500), Cameron Young (+1600) and Ben Griffin (+3500), who was runner-up to Scheffler last year. Before locking in any 2026 Memorial Tournament picks, or any PGA DFS picks or One and Done selections, be sure to see the 2026 Memorial Tournament predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.

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Now that the 2026 Memorial Tournament field is set, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, which you can use for PGA picks, one and done contests or PGA DFS lineups.

2026 Memorial Tournament predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Memorial Tournament 2026: It is fading Young (+1600), despite there being just two golfers with shorter odds. The model says he stumbles and falls to even crack the top 5. Young's streak of seven straight top 25s ended at the PGA Championship, and he'll tee off for the first time since that tournament three weeks ago. The Memorial isn't the best tournament to welcome him back considering his history, as he's never cracked the top 20 of the leaderboard in four starts. He's broken par just once over his last 12 rounds at Muirfield Village, and given him having the third-shortest PGA odds, he's one to steer clear of with Memorial bets. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: The model is high on Russell Henley at +2000. Henley just collected his sixth PGA victory on Sunday, winning a playoff over Eric Cole at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has three other top 10s on the season, including at the Masters, and Cole impressed in his last visit to Muirfield. He placed fifth at this tournament in 2025 as his unparalleled precision off the tee makes him a great fit for this course. Muirfield is the fourth-longest course on the PGA Tour schedule, and Henley leads the tour in driving accuracy percentage. Thus, you can always count on Henley to put himself in a great second-shot position on the long fairways Muirfield offers. See who else to pick here.

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How to make 2026 Memorial Tournament picks

The model is also targeting three other longshots of at least +3000 who make runs up the Memorial Tournament leaderboard. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the Memorial Tournament 2026, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Memorial Tournament odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.

2026 Memorial Tournament odds, favorites

Get full 2026 Memorial Tournament picks, best bets and predictions here.(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +310Rory McIlroy +1200Ludvig Åberg +1500Cameron Young +1600Xander Schauffele +1800Russell Henley +2000Matt Fitzpatrick +2200Si Woo Kim +2200Tommy Fleetwood +3000Patrick Cantlay +3300Ben Griffin +3500J.J. Spaun +3500Justin Thomas +4000Hideki Matsuyama +4000Robert MacIntyre +4500Min Woo Lee +4500Alex Smalley +4500Chris Gotterup +5000Jordan Spieth +5000Nicolai Højgaard +5500Maverick McNealy +6000Sam Burns +6000Harris English +6000Rickie Fowler +6000Adam Scott +6500Justin Rose +6500Sepp Straka +6500Akshay Bhatia +7000Gary Woodland +7000Aaron Rai +7000Kurt Kitayama +7000Ryan Gerard +7000Keegan Bradley +8000Alex Noren +8000Sahith Theegala +10000Jacob Bridgeman +10000Kristoffer Reitan +10000Shane Lowry +10000Jason Day +10000Ryo Hisatsune +10000Corey Conners +10000Alex Fitzpatrick +10000Wyndham Clark +10000

Nick Taylor +10000