2025 CFB Week 0 Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Pick, Best Bet

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

We're starting off the season with a big matchup in the Big 12 — what could be better?

Kansas State vs. Iowa State is not only a battle of Big 12 squads, but it's also a contest between two teams ranked in the top 25.

Which team comes out of this weekend unscathed? Glad you asked, because I have an answer.

No. 17 Kansas State (-3) vs. No. 22 Iowa State

My first pick probably will not go over well with my friends in Ames, as I am an unofficial ambassador there — but I do like the Purple Cats in this one.

Last season, Iowa State clinched a 10-win season with a 29-21 win over K-State. But in that game, the Wildcats committed eight penalties, had a 21-yard field goal blocked, allowed a safety, were a combined 4-for-17 on third down and fourth down (one of which was a fourth-down drop on fourth-and-2 at the Iowa State 35 late in the game), and was minus-2 in turnovers.

K-State also outgained the Cyclones by 40 yards.

Whew, that was a mouthful. Got all that?

That's what it took for one of the best teams in Iowa State history to escape, at home, with the win. That was a senior-laden bunch, and maybe it had some Illinois in it with four fourth-quarter comebacks.

Will the transfers at wide receiver step right in to make up for the loss of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel? If they can’t, the offense will sputter.

Defensively, the Cyclones allowed 5.4 yards per carry last year, which was 126th nationally. Whether that was due to linebacker injuries or the 3-3-3 scheme, we’ll see. If they can’t win the early downs on defense, and allow Avery Johnson, Dylan Edwards and Gabe Ervin to look at third-and-2 all game, K-State will be hard to stop.

This number has come down some, as there was even a K-State -4 briefly posted at Circa and I will now jump in.

I still love you, Ames, and can’t wait to bring Big Noon Kickoff there in two weeks.

PICK: Kansas State (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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