2025 ACC football schedule breakdown: Predicting the first loss for all 17 conference teams

It was a quick two games and out for the ACC in the College Football Playoff last season, but that could change in 2025 with multiple squads capable of getting to the expanded bracket -- and winning -- with elite rosters.

That's the only way commissioner Jim Phillips and the conference are going to generate respect and a seat at the table in conversations with the SEC and Big Ten as further realignment speculation figures to hover over the ACC in the coming years. Sifting through every ACC team's upcoming schedule, we've picked out the first loss for each squad.

These predictions coincide with our preseason bowl projections ahead of the 2025 campaign and how we see the season shaking out within the ACC.

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Boston College Eagles

First loss: at Michigan State, Sept. 6

How often are we going to see these nonconference "good-on-good" matchups in the Power Four ranks moving forward, when the playoff eventually expands and coaches say enough is enough with beefed up scheduling? It's a good question to ask, but not for now. Bill O'Brien's only focus is finding a way to thwart the Spartans in Week 2 the way Boston College handled Michigan State last season in Chestnut Hill.

California Golden Bears

First loss: at Oregon State, Aug. 23

A toss-up in Week 0, this is likely one of those 50-50 games Cal needs to return to bowl eligibility this fall under Justin Wilcox. He's taken this program to the postseason four times since taking over in 2017, but finishing in a tie for 14th in the ACC last season was a disappointment. There was a power struggle unraveling of sorts this spring, leading to countless transfers and general uncertainty for the Golden Bears in 2025.

Clemson Tigers

First loss: at South Carolina, Nov. 29

That's right. The Gamecocks could potentially spoil an unbeaten regular season for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers. South Carolina handed Clemson one of its four losses last fall with two others coming to additional SEC teams. South Carolina hasn't beaten Clemson at home since the 2013 season with the Gamecocks' only two wins in the series since each coming on the road. Even if Clemson suffers a letdown in the Palmetto State rivalry, the Tigers could be the top seed in the playoff if they're able to win the ACC championship the following week.

Duke Blue Devils

First loss: Illinois, Sept. 6

There's a chance Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils lose two of their three nonconference games this season before the ACC opener against NC State on Sept. 20, if they're unable to handle the Fighting Illini in Durham or take out Tulane on the road. Those two squads are perceived as better than Duke in the preseason given Illinois' stance inside the Coaches Poll top 10 and the Green Wave as a Group of Five contender.

Florida State Seminoles

First loss: Alabama, Aug. 30

Seminoles quarterback Thomas Castellanos has said plenty about this seismic opener for both teams coming off lackluster finishes last fall. With the little ink that's left, we'll say this: the most intriguing storyline here is Florida State's new-look offense under Gus Malzahn against a veteran-led Alabama defense that could be one of the Seminoles' toughest tests of the season. We'll know a great deal about both squads when this one's over.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

First loss: Clemson, Sept. 13

Getting past Colorado on the road to open the season on Aug. 29 will not be easy for Brent Key's program, but there are less questions surrounding the Yellow Jackets than the Buffaloes at this point. Now, beating Clemson for the first time since 2015 is a different task entirely. Georgia Tech's bread is buttered up front with veterans across the offensive line, but the Tigers have two potential future first-round draft picks in this one chasing Haynes King throughout — defensive tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher T.J. Parker.

Louisville Cardinals

First loss: at Miami, Oct. 17

Another dark-horse title contender with a favorable schedule the first few weeks of the season, Louisville is looking at a 5-0 start if the Cardinals handle JMU -- a solid Group of Five program -- and a road trip to Pitt during the first half. That would set up a mammoth game at Miami on a Friday night in October that could decide the ACC's leading candidate to dethrone Clemson at the top of the league.

Miami Hurricanes

First loss: Notre Dame, Aug. 31

Unless Miami wins the ACC, the Hurricanes must split nonconference litmus tests against Notre Dame and Florida during September. Those are two clashes the selection committee will be taking under consideration in November when the Hurricanes are clinging to a spot around the top 15, per our bowl projections. Unfortunately for Carson Beck, going up against one of the nation's elite defenses in Week 1 is a tall order.

North Carolina Tar Heels

First loss: TCU, Sept. 1

Bill Belichick's debut will be spoiled by a Big 12 opponent fueled by a multi-year starter at quarterback and arsenal at the skill spots with serious speed to burn on the outside. The Horned Frogs welcome back nine impact starters and addressed personnel needs this offseason through recruiting and the portal. The Tar Heels have the ninth-best transfer haul nationally per 247Sports, which includes South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez. But will Belichick's new team click on all cylinders in Week 1? That's a lot to ask.

NC State Wolfpack

First loss: at Duke, Sept. 20

With a chance to reverse fortunes on a disappointing nonconference stretch, the Blue Devils will start the ACC slate with a win. NC State's had some strange recent failures in Durham, losing by a combined 39 points the last two trips to Wallace Wade Stadium. Duke has won four of its last five in the rivalry series after losing its previous 11 straight to NC State. If NC State can shake recent history in this spot, Dave Doeren's squad will be 4-0 with Virginia Tech coming to town the following week.

Pittsburgh Panthers

First loss: Louisville, Sept. 27

Louisville is undervalued this summer in the ACC discussion, but not for long once the season begins. For Pittsburgh, the Panthers need to focus on beating West Virginia before worrying about the Cardinals. The home team has won all three games since this Backyard Brawl rivalry was renewed to open the 2022 campaign, but that changes this season. The Panthers are loaded on the defensive side of the ball with veterans and Desmond Reid is one of the ACC's top threats with the ball in his hands offensively.

SMU Mustangs

First loss: at Clemson, Oct. 18

A highly-anticipated rematch of last season's conference title game, there's a chance the Mustangs travel to Death Valley in mid-October sporting an unblemished record and top 10 ranking following early tests against Baylor and TCU. This is the first of three regular-season games we're expecting to come against nationally-ranked competition for Rhett Lashlee's squad.

Stanford Cardinal

First loss: at Hawaii, Aug. 23

College football gets underway in a few weeks with several matchups slated for Aug. 23, including this trip across the Pacific for the Cardinal. Stanford opened as a favorite against the Warriors, but the line has since swung in the home team's direction. We'll go with oddsmakers here and take Hawaii in a single-possession game.

Syracuse Orange

First loss: vs. Tennessee (Atlanta), Aug. 30

Fran Brown has a litany of material he can paste inside the locker room at Mercedes-Benz Stadium during opening weekend and here's more fodder to motivate his Orange: Following last year's 10-win triumph during Brown's first season, Syracuse looks a good bit different roster-wise this fall -- much like the other sideline against the Vols in this one. Syracuse will get back to the postseason in 2025, but the Orange aren't winning this one.

Virginia Cavaliers

First loss: at NC State, Sept. 6

A Week 2 test for both programs in the ACC opener, the Cavaliers have lost three straight meetings with the Wolfpack dating back to 2018. Since NC State opens the season on a Thursday night, Doeren's team will get a couple extra hours in the film room to prepare and that could be vital in what should be a competitive, four-quarter fight.

Virginia Tech Hokies

First loss: vs. South Carolina (Atlanta), Aug. 31

The second SEC vs. ACC showdown in Georgia to start the season, Virginia Tech has an opportunity to do something the Hokies have not accomplished thus far under Brent Pry -- beat a top 25 opponent. The Gamecocks nearly reached the College Football Playoff last season with LaNorris Sellers at quarterback and Pry has called this one a barometer game of sorts for his program to see where it stacks up nationally. There's the Beamer family angle at play, too. Wonder where Frank's allegiance will lie?

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

First loss: NC State, Sept. 11

The Demon Deacons play a couple non-Saturday home games during Jake Dickert's first season and they each come within the first three weeks of the campaign. Now, if Wake Forest is able to start 3-0 and get halfway to bowl eligibility including a win over the Wolfpack in this spot, that would give a tremendous confidence boost to a program seeking its first winning season since 2022.