'He has every chance. He can command the race': Why experts think Lewis Hamilton can seal glory in Monaco - Ferrari's superb 'traction and turbos', team-mate Charles Leclerc's one weakness and the muscle memory helping Brit's charge

It is a place as dark and quiet as Monte Carlo was bright and booming yesterday. We are talking about the parish church of San Biagio in Maranello and posing the question whether their bells will ring for Lewis Hamilton this weekend.

Tradition dictates that a Ferrari victory is honoured in such a manner. Undeniably, it has been a lean time for campanologists in northern Italy these past few years.

The Scuderia’s last win came two seasons back through Carlos Sainz in Mexico City. So slim have been the pickings since that Hamilton would be forgiven for regretting his move to Ferrari, made with his heart as much as his head. His bank balance went bananas, but everything else went bust.

Mercedes are the team of the moment, winners of all five races so far this season. Yet, yet, there is hope for Hamilton on the harbourside, where he set the fastest time in practice for tomorrow’s Monaco Grand Prix.

It was an occurrence in keeping with his contented persona since arriving in the paddock on his silver Ducati Panigale V4 S 100 bike – with his number, 44, on the windshield – from one of his portfolio of homes in the hills of motor racing’s most prized real estate.

The Ferrari, which on level terrain is customarily only third best behind the Silver Arrows and McLaren, is well suited to Monaco’s peculiar characteristics. The argument is that they are adroit through slow, tight corners, whereas they lose out on long straights (absent here) that demand raw engine power.

How the evidence of first practice nourished this theory. Charles Leclerc was fastest in one red car, Hamilton second, albeit a chunky 0.226sec back. In the following session, 41-year-old Hamilton propelled himself to the top, 0.111sec ahead of Leclerc. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen was third best, followed by the two Mercedes.

Leclerc poses potentially a bigger question mark next to Hamilton’s hopes than any rival. The first Monegasque to win in his own playground, in 2024, he is always quick here, though prone to find a barrier.

And while Monaco’s tight streets do not add up to a super-productive track for Hamilton – unlike, say Silverstone, Budapest, Montreal and Shanghai – he has won Monaco a smaller matter of three times.

This is the 1,000th race for Hamilton’s old McLaren team. They follow only Ferrari in achieving that landmark. To mark the occasion, several of their grand-prix winning drivers are in attendance on a weekend of celebration.

The oldest surviving member of that elite brotherhood is John Watson, who turned 80 last month. He posed for photographs on track and stood next to Hamilton. Watson, who notched four of his five victories for the team Bruce McLaren founded, was a sometime constructive critic, as well as a firm admirer, of a younger Hamilton.

But the pair spoke warmly during the ceremonials, and Watson congratulated him on his fine drive in Montreal a fortnight ago, when the seven-time world champion secured his best finish for Ferrari, second place behind Mercedes’s championship leader Kimi Antonelli.

Sitting on the top floor of McLaren’s new, gleaming, papaya-themed motorhome at a table reserved for him all weekend, he offered an upbeat assessment of Hamilton’s prospects of victory by the Med.

He also sought to explain the conundrum of why Lewis was so poor last year but enjoying a resurgence this.

‘I never felt he was finished,’ intoned Watson. ‘Last year there seemed to be a disconnect between Lewis and the Ferrari technical team. But this year, with new regulations, and the old ground-effect requirements gone, he and the team are far better aligned and that is reflected in his recent podiums. He has the car with the characteristics he wants.

‘There was rear-end instability in Lewis’s Ferrari last year. It could be snappy. That reflects in your confidence on entry into a corner. Then your exit speed disappears and it can all tumble from there.’

As for today and tomorrow? ‘He has every chance. If he puts it on pole he can command the race. The Ferrari’s small turbos allow them to surge off the line and the car has great traction. Yes, it could happen for him.’

Bell ringers, stand by your ropes.