Trump wants CUSMA to expire 'immediately.' Here's the reality behind his takes on the trade deal

U.S. President Donald Trump has sounded off once again about his country's three-way trade deal with Canada and Mexico, this time musing about the agreement "expiring immediately."

Trump spoke about the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in response to a reporter's questions Wednesday at Orly Airport near Paris, on his way back from the G7 Summit.

Each of the three countries must declare by July 1 whether they want to extend CUSMA beyond its 2036 expiry date.

Mexico and Canada favour extension and, while the U.S. hasn't made its position public, all the signs indicate the countries are instead headed toward some intense renegotiating of the deal's terms.

Last week, Trump said he is "not looking to renew" the agreement.

Much of what Trump said Wednesday about CUSMA — known south of the border as USMCA — failed to acknowledge the facts about a deal that covers some $2.7 trillion in annual goods and services trade between the countries.

WATCH | A deeper dive into Trump's latest comments about terminating CUSMA:

U.S. President Donald Trump said he's not a 'big fan' of CUSMA, which he negotiated in his first term, but that predecessor NAFTA was 'the worst trade agreement ever made.' Trump also again threatened to terminate the deal, which is up for review on July 1.

Here's a closer look at some of what Trump said on Wednesday, measured against reality.

While Trump did not specify on what measure the U.S. would "do better" without a North American free trade deal, there's plenty of evidence that CUSMA has helped fire up the U.S. economy.

Business Roundtable, an association of more than 200 chief executives of major U.S. companies, published a report that shows a 50 per cent increase in two-way trade in the region since the deal took effect, with 13 million U.S. jobs supported by trade with Canada and Mexico.

"Canada and Mexico purchase more U.S. manufactured goods than the next dozen U.S. trading partners combined and represent the top export markets for U.S. agricultural products," said Business Roundtable president Kristen Silverberg in an article for the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington, D.C.

Trump may want to view the deal that way, but the text of the agreement says otherwise. CUSMA took effect in 2020 for a 16-year term, so it doesn't expire for another 10 years.

If Trump does want to terminate CUSMA, there is a path to doing so. The text of the agreement states that any country can withdraw by giving six months' written notice.

While the possibility of a withdrawal is a reality, Trump has not explicitly threatened to tear up the deal — at least, not yet.

But it's also unclear whether the president actually has the power to pull out of CUSMA.

"The United States cannot withdraw from a congressionally approved trade agreement without the consent of Congress," concluded the Republican-led Senate Finance Committee in a 2020 report.

Trump was a very big fan of CUSMA when he signed it back in his first term.

"The USMCA is the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved. There’s never been anything like it," Trump told a signing ceremony in January 2020.

"This is a colossal victory for our farmers, ranchers, energy workers, factory workers and American workers in all 50 states," he said.

This is a candidate for the most confusing sentence Trump said about CUSMA on Wednesday. "I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it," is another.

Perhaps it's vintage The Art of the Deal Trump just trying to keep the other side of the table guessing.

But it holds out the possibility, despite all his anti-CUSMA rhetoric of late, that not only will he refrain from ripping up the deal, but he could also agree to a renegotiated version. He might even say there's never been anything like it.

The U.S. and Mexico have already begun formal negotiations on a reboot of the agreement, while Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has been in talks with his U.S. counterpart that he says have begun to address key issues for both sides.

Groups representing a range of U.S. industries, from manufacturing to agriculture, have called for CUSMA to be renewed.