Poilievre tweaks his tone and strategy as he faces must-win byelection, leadership review

Pierre Poilievre was feeling dejected and disappointed after the stinging federal election loss in April, sources close to the Conservative leader said, and he dialed back his public appearances for the better part of two months to reassess his strategy and regroup.

After that period of self-reflection, which was marked by private calls and visits with dozens of MPs, staff and supporters, Poilievre is re-emerging from a relatively dormant period — ramping up his federal byelection campaign, weighing in publicly on perceived Liberal missteps and speaking to the press.

"It's been hard on him," one Poilievre confidante, who spoke to CBC News on the condition they not be named so they could speak freely about internal matters, said of the election loss. "All of us, we've had to eat some humble pie."

Another Conservative source who worked closely with Poilievre on the campaign said the leader has seemed "deflated" since the loss and has been "lacking the chutzpah" he was known for in the lead-up to the national vote.

To expand the potential pool of voters and beat the Liberals next time, the leader and people around him now acknowledge that some things have to change, Conservative sources said.

Poilievre, long known as the ultimate attack dog politician after spending much of his career on the opposition benches, has been more subdued at his recent public outings, including at his press conference with reporters on Monday. The sloganeering, once a staple of his political messaging, has been parked — at least for now.

After avoiding national interviews with some traditional media outlets for much of his leadership, Poilievre spoke to CBC Radio's The House last week.

He critiqued Prime Minister Mark Carney's handling of the Canada-U.S. trade dispute — but also offered up some solutions, including a commitment to get more personally involved in American outreach if asked. Throughout the campaign, the Tory leader had said it wasn't his place to intervene.

Poilievre said he didn't blame Carney "entirely" for the lack of progress on a trade deal. "He's dealing with unfair treatment by the Americans," he told host Catherine Cullen.

One Conservative source close to Poilievre said the shift in tone — and temperament — is deliberate.

Poilievre himself acknowledged this week an election defeat is a chance to reassess, saying "every election comes with lessons."

He also suggested his leadership can't be tied just to what the Liberals are doing. "We need to present ourselves as a government-in-waiting," he said.

And he told Calgary Stampede-goers at his first major speech since the election earlier this month that he won't back down despite some of the challenges that lie ahead.

"We don't run away when things get hard. We dust ourselves off. We get back in the saddle and we gallop forward into the fight," Poilievre said.

One thing that is not changing is Poilievre's reliance on campaign adviser Jenni Byrne to help him navigate choppy political waters.

Byrne, a controversial figure among some Conservatives, has been close to Poilievre for years and managed the last election effort.

The result she helped deliver on election day — one of the best Tory showings since the 1980s — is regarded by many within the party as respectable. But there are others who are deeply disappointed about letting what once looked like a certain victory slip away.

Dimitri Soudas, a former senior staffer in ex-prime minister Stephen Harper's government who worked with Byrne while she was also in that office, is going public with his concerns about Poilievre's trusted adviser.

In a social media post Thursday, Soudas said Byrne dropped the ball.

"As my party leader says, why should donors pay for failure," he wrote. "The path to victory was obvious on January 8, 2025."

Rumours of Byrne's ouster circulated in Ottawa this week, but a source close to the strategist said she's not going anywhere, and that Byrne and Poilievre are speaking often. A Conservative Party spokesperson confirmed she is still working for the party.

While taking a step back since the election from liaising day-to-day with the leader of the Opposition's office, Byrne is still very much in the picture, said a source close to Poilievre. "Nothing has really changed."

Byrne is advising Poilievre on the upcoming Alberta byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot and the planned party convention in Calgary in the new year, a source said, including messaging and potential speakers for that event.

There's work underway behind the scenes to ensure Poilievre holds off a leadership review. That review could be prompted by a vote at January's convention, which is being held earlier than it could have been.

Under the party's constitution, a vote on triggering the leadership selection process must be held after an election loss — but there's no stipulation on when exactly it should take place. A convention in the dead of winter is unusual.

"The sooner the better," said one Poilievre adviser of the timing. "Why stretch it out? Let's get him in a strong position again."

The fear among some Conservatives loyal to Poilievre is that Carney could enjoy an extended honeymoon period with strong public polling support.

Recent surveys suggest an outright majority of Canadians polled think Carney's government is off to a good start. Carney is easily the most preferred candidate for prime minister among those surveyed, according to other polls.

There's a risk that a prolonged polling slump could make some partisans anxious about the party's future under Poilievre.

Poilievre has to contend with a growing Western separatist movement in the upcoming byelection, a potentially tricky proposition for a leader with national ambitions.

He has said in recent days the province is treated unfairly and its economy was "viciously attacked" by former prime minister Justin Trudeau and his father with their energy policies.

"We have to put a final end to this notion that Ottawa tells Alberta to pay up and shut up," he told reporters.

The Conservative leader also faces the daunting task of matching or exceeding past Tory MP Damien Kurek's stunning nearly 83 per cent of the vote in the riding — something party sources acknowledge is not likely in this summer byelection.

What party insiders are watching for is Poilievre's margin of victory. If he pulls in a lot less than Kurek's share of the vote, it could spell trouble for Poilievre's leadership.