Nigel Farage's 'magic number' to oust Keir Starmer in Reform UK takeover revealed

Nigel Farage could pull off the unthinkable and lead Reform UK into Government — if he can push his party’s national support to at least 30%, a leading pollster has said. Chris Hopkins said the recent local elections, during which Reform UK made sweeping gains, were a “huge breakthrough”, giving the party legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

The political research director at Savanta emphasised that Mr Farage’s path to power hinges not on matching Labour or the Tories seat for seat, but on exploiting the quirks of Britain’s electoral system. He explained: “Mathematically, if Reform UK can get above 30% and the other parties sort of languish in the 20s, then first-past-the-post becomes your best friend and not your enemy. If Reform is on 26 or 25, the Tories are on 22 and Labour are on 24, it’s probably still going to hurt Reform rather than help them.

"But if they can push themselves to 30% and put the others in the low 20s, they’ll start winning three-, four- and five-horse constituency races.”

He pointed to Reform’s success in this month’s local elections — including mayoral and council wins — as evidence that support for the party was no longer just a protest vote.

Mr Hopkins said: “This is the first real electoral test Reform UK have had. The General Election last year was minor by comparison. Now they’ve won councils and mayoralties — that builds momentum, representation and legitimacy in the minds of voters.”

That credibility could prove critical in the run-up to the next General Election.

Mr Hopkins continued: “Voters don’t tend to vote for parties they don’t think can win. But now Reform has proved they can win — that changes the game.”

Mr Hopkins said voters attracted to Reform by national issues such as immigration were now seeing the party gain power locally, which would raise expectations for delivery.

He said: “They’ve got this power off the back of a national campaign and national profile — particularly on immigration — but also more generally, on anti-politics and a sense of being left behind.

“Now they’re in charge of authorities and mayoralties, they’re going to be judged on their record. That’s something that’s never happened to Reform UK before — and that could be a risk.”

He warned that issues as small as bin collections or as broad as border policy could influence voters’ views of the party, stressing: “People will continue to feel disengaged and disenfranchised if Reform UK now can’t sort their problems out — and that includes the mundane as well as the national stuff.”

Nonetheless, Mr Hopkins argued Mr Farage was unusually well equipped to navigate this challenge, describing him as “the greatest political communicator in the UK — across the political spectrum.

“He lives and dies on his public perception, sure, but I think he’s uniquely qualified to keep Reform growing rather than getting stuck.”

There was a cult of personality at work with Mr Farage only rivalled in recent times by former PM Boris Johnson, Mr Hopkins pointed out.

While critics have long tried to undermine Mr Farage’s appeal, Mr Hopkins suggested their attacks often miss the mark.

He argued: “A lot of the criticism just washes off him — his personality can shine through. He’s a bit Teflon. Until, as Boris found out, he’s not — and then things can turn quickly.”

Asked whether the electoral system was still a major barrier to Reform’s chances, Mr Hopkins replied: “First-past-the-post is a barrier — until it’s not.”

He explained that as long as Reform could stay ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in enough marginal seats, the system could actually work in their favour.

He said: “Reform are taking voters predominantly from the Tories, which limits any sort of Tory fightback — but also from Labour, which limits theirs too.

“If Reform can stay on 30%, it just limits what any other party can do. Then they can come through and take these three-, four- and even five-way marginals.

“This is where it gets interesting from a polling point of view — because predicting those results will be anyone’s guess. But if Farage can hit 30%, he’s genuinely in the game.”

In last week's local elections, Reform UK secured 677 council seats across England, marking a gain of 648 seats compared to previous standings.

The party also gained control of 10 councils and won two metro mayor positions, including the inaugural mayoralty of Greater Lincolnshire. Additionally, Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election, with new MP Sarah Pochin further solidifying its growing influence.

A YouGov poll published this week and based on interviews with 2,187 people on May 5 and 6 put Reform on 29%, Labour on 22, the Tories on 17, the Lib Dems on 16 and the Greens on 10.