Keir Starmer's migrant deal lies in ruins – unbelievable top lawyer didn't see it coming

OPINION

Stand back in amazement! Sir Keir Starmer's so called one-in-one-out deal with France has fallen at the first hurdle. Under Labour's plan – which some bright spark presumably thought would counter the rise of Reform UK – the UK will send an illegal immigrant back to France in return for another migrant the French have deemed worthy to stay in Europe. Remember, these illegal immigrants are almost universally crossing from France, that well-known war-torn developing country which couldn't possibly offer them sanctuary or a decent standard of living.

Anyway, back to the omnishambles. While reports are somewhat unclear, it seems two flights were booked back to France: the first was met with a challenge from the much-maligned European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the second by further legal actions. Like no one in the government could see this coming! It has been reported that one illegal immigrant from Eritrea won a High Court bid to have his removal temporarily blocked.

Lawyers said the case concerned a trafficking claim, arguing he has a gunshot wound and could be left destitute if he was returned to France.

The Home Office defended the case, saying it was reasonable to expect the man to claim asylum in France when he first arrived, before moving on to the UK.

Mr Justice Sheldon said the "status quo is that the claimant is currently in this country and has not been removed".

However, the judge added: "This matter should come back to this court as soon as is reasonably practical in light of the further representations that the claimant... will make on his trafficking decision."

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said he told Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood "unless they disapply the Human Rights Act for immigration cases, this deal would collapse in court."

Fair enough, except no one takes the Tories remotely seriously on immigration anymore. In addition, it is believed some of those due to fly lodged unsuccessful legal challenges but were not deported due to so-called concerns raised by our old EU buddies the French that the Home Office didn't offer adequate notice of the vulnerabilities of some individuals.

Nice save from Paris!

The truth is the Labour government could have predicted this car crash, especially former top lawyer Sir Keir Starmer. Plus – as Reform leader Nigel Farage said in a social media post – a one-in-one-out deal doesn't amount to much if illegal migration goes on.

And it's more disastrous news for Labour in the polls. YouGov's latest reading gives Reform a nine-point lead (up from five), with the Greens and Labour both down two points, and Reform up by two, with Farage's party now leading Labour 29% to 20.

It doesn't stop there. Polling for Wales – where Senedd elections are due in May – shows Reform is now practically neck-and-neck with Plaid Cymru. Polling by ITV shows Plaid on 30% Reform on 29, and Labour 14.

This would give Plaid 38 Senedd seats, with Reform just behind on 38. For Welsh seats in the House of Commons meanwhile, ITV found Reform is now ahead – on 29% versus 23% for Labour.

As for the predictably useless migrant deal with France, just wait and see if these failures are used to justify Britain signing up to the hated EU migrant pact, a deal which aims to share the burden of illegal migration across Europe, despite alreafldy being rejected by Hungary and Poland.

With Farage on course to be PM, the business community, in particular, cannot see much point in making plans when everything is set to change so radically once Labour is given the boot. Then again – if a Reform victory is on course – expect a huge migrant surge in the dying days of this Labour government.

In the meantime, the government's illegal migrant deal lies – for now anyway – in ruins, with small boat crossings continuing apace.