'Gaza ceasefire shattered – is Iran now in crosshairs of Israel and the US?'

The shattering of the Gaza ceasefire was expected but is nevertheless appalling news for Palestinians in the Strip and the remaining hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bowed to immense pressure from the right-wing and ignored Israelis who put hostage releases above everything else.

But the truth is the fragile ceasefire has been clinging for life ever since it came officially to an end at the beginning of March. Hamas wanted talks on the agreed second phase of the deal, in which all of the hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu’s negotiators wanted an extension of Phase One and there was a disagreement over the presence of Israeli troops.

In the background Netanyahu is also under pressure, from an ongoing corruption court case and publicly rowing with the head of his Shin Bet security agency Ronan Bar. He has publicly stated he has “distrust” for Bar, whilst the security chief says Netanyahu puts personal loyalty before what is best for Israel. Incredibly, amidst all of this undignified arguing, Bar continues to play a crucial role in the military bid to get rid of Hamas.

And Netanyahu is also under pressure from his ongoing corruption court case, whilst also being accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The appalling aid ban on Gaza puts close to a million children at risk and yet clearly Netanyahu has the full backing of US President Donald Trump. Emboldened by Trump’s threats of unleashing “hell” on Hamas if the hostages are not released Netanyahu is surging forward with his grand strategy.

He is ignoring the details of hostages and deaths and has been further encouraged by the US renewing its airstrike campaign against Iran-back Houthi rebels in Yemen. Last month, after being named as the new Israel Defence Force chief Major General Eyal Zamir warned: “2025 will continue to be a year of combat.” That may turn out to be something of an understatement as there are murmurings that the US has been persuaded by Netanyahu that Iran must now be dealt with.

This has likely been Netanyahu’s grand strategy for some time and keeping the conflict going serves as a diversion from his domestic problems. Iran has supported Hamas, using both it and the Houthis as its proxies against Israel and the West, and it is possible the US will soon approve strikes on Iran. Trump has telegraphed this already, threatening ‘dire consequences’ against Tehran if the Houthis continue to threaten western shipping.

Whether this means US strikes on Iran, alongside the Israelis, is not yet known but both Trump and Netanyahu want big legacy acts. A major move against Iran, perhaps just beneath the threshold for all-out war, or even all-out war itself will serve as a practical end of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. This is a regime that the whole of the Middle East, especially Israel, understands cannot be allowed to become a nuclear power.

With Iran’s Hezbollah proxy vastly depleted by the conflict with Israel the US and Israel will likely calculate that soon is the time to make a move on Iran. And it will also weaken Russia’s axis with Iran, forcing it to pivot further towards North Korea, whilst China is waiting in the wings to strike on Taiwan.

Pentagon war-planners have been updating strike plans against Iran regularly for years and it is possible this year will finally see it happen. Israel's plans, if it went to war with Tehran, were always to strike hard at the regime, its leader and its nuclear installations.

One Israel intelligence veteran told me some years ago: "We would have to leave Iranians something to live for once the regime has gone, the ability to see that there is a future without trying to destroy Israel."

Sadly it seems the same consideration is not being given to two million Palestinians in Gaza. And peace will not come to the Middle East any time soon.